Feelings when placing a bet

**Gaze73** · 10-30-15, 10:36 AM

Many times I had a gut feeling in live betting, such as "What if I was insane enough to put 50% of my bankroll for that team to score next goal @4.5?" And then within 5 seconds to a minute, the goal is scored.

**Waterstpub87** · 10-30-15, 11:38 AM

Doubt your subconscious is better at analyzing sports games than you are. Maybe this is a better explanation?

Confirmation bias - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

**SBRMAN23** · 10-30-15, 01:03 PM

that same game cost me 1500 in a 3 teamer smh

**TheMoneyShot** · 10-30-15, 05:03 PM

Originally posted by ohdecas

I want to discuss here how you feel when you place a bet..
Yesterday for exemple I took Sampdoria to win against Empoli but while placing it and just after the bet a bad feeling raped me. Offcourse later the bet was lost.
This isn't the first time that it seem my guts knows more than my brain, it happens often, I place a bet that I studied for like 30 minutes and the moment I place the money down I begin to feel bad..

Contrary when I place a winning bet it seem that my body/brain/guts whatever is more relaxed, I don't need to check scores every 5 minutes and so on..

My point of view is that my subconscius mind make a much more predictive analysis than my conscius mind. I know that our subconscius mind is faster and can elaborate many many MANY data in a really short period of time (1-3 seconds?).

Do anyone there listen on their gut feelings to make the final decision about a bet? Or am I just too much tired and it's time to go sleep?

Salutoni.

Bottom line... it's CONFIDENCE. It's hard to be brilliantly confident 24/7 when gambling and making the right call. Clearly... if your confidence is just average... emotions come into play changing your angle or approach on a read.

When my confidence is off the charts... I make better reads. It's mind over matter.

Once emotions come into play... all reads are coin flips.

**JIBBBY** · 10-30-15, 08:28 PM

Throw feelings out the window.. Stay away from betting big with the prime time games just because you need the action while watching.... Stick to what you know best..

Lean on hard facts and stats, streaks, good karma in your own life is key, and if you are a streaky gambler ride your streaks when they are in play.. If losing don't chase and shrink your bets until you begin to win again, if winning increase bet loads until you lose...

As far as personal feeling trust your first instinct if you must...

My take anyways...

**Buffalo Nickle** · 10-30-15, 10:30 PM

Never go against your gut. If your brain and your gut disagree, you probably have a bad bet. That's the part of your brain that recognizes the weakness of your bet telling you that you are probably making a mistake. It may work out but there is an element of weakness to your bet.

In all things in life, you never go against your gut. It just does not work out. When you pass on a decision, your gut tells you not to make, you can know you were appropriately cautious. When you make decisions against your gut and it does not work out, you will always regret it. This is especially true in life. All you can do is go on your best judgment. And if your gut disagrees, it is not your best judgment.

When my brain and gut agree on a bet, I will not always win but I definitely have a good bet.

There are lots of bets that you WANT to make. You can't bet everything you want and win.

**A4K** · 10-31-15, 12:24 AM

Originally posted by ohdecas

I want to discuss here how you feel when you place a bet..
Yesterday for exemple I took Sampdoria to win against Empoli but while placing it and just after the bet a bad feeling raped me. Offcourse later the bet was lost.
This isn't the first time that it seem my guts knows more than my brain, it happens often, I place a bet that I studied for like 30 minutes and the moment I place the money down I begin to feel bad..

Contrary when I place a winning bet it seem that my body/brain/guts whatever is more relaxed, I don't need to check scores every 5 minutes and so on..

My point of view is that my subconscius mind make a much more predictive analysis than my conscius mind. I know that our subconscius mind is faster and can elaborate many many MANY data in a really short period of time (1-3 seconds?).

Do anyone there listen on their gut feelings to make the final decision about a bet? Or am I just too much tired and it's time to go sleep?

Salutoni.

Read this book..... http://www.amazon.com/Blink-The-Powe.../dp/0316010669

Subconsciously you may know that the bet is bad from the jump.

**ohdecas** · 10-31-15, 03:55 AM

You have me a good read for my first coffee and cigararette

I have read the Malcom book like 1 year ago, I rate it as a good book in my library..

**captrobey** · 10-31-15, 08:39 AM

I feel pretty. Oh so pretty.

**Snowball** · 10-31-15, 06:01 PM

It's all interconnected. Metaphysical consciousness - which does not originate in the brain,
but outside of the body. Consciousness transcends time. We have this in our subconscious.
We have the power to tap into a voice that tells us the outcome, or warns us.
You can hear it in the silence only.. it speaks across invisible currents. Dig for it.

**Thunderground** · 11-02-15, 05:54 PM

Pretty simple.

If you're absolutely certain of a bet, it's no good.
If you can hardly bring yourself to pull the trigger, you're in the right area code.

**Kindred** · 11-02-15, 07:40 PM

I would suggest to NOT follow your gut with your cash. Track your gut bets over a decent sample, doesn't even have to be statistically significant if you don't want. It's very easy to remember those gut bets you would have won and forget those bets that would have lost. Basically it's your psyche and human emotions that will get in the way of decision making when it comes to games of chance. Your gut could be your subconscious maybe picking up on something so maybe you should follow it, but track those bets it's the only way to make a clear judgement about your "gut" based decisions.

**Kindred** · 11-02-15, 07:44 PM

Originally posted by Thunderground

Pretty simple.

If you're absolutely certain of a bet, it's no good.
If you can hardly bring yourself to pull the trigger, you're in the right area code.

That's where I have come to in my betting, the more I like it it's usually the worst bet of the day. If I was superstitious I'd say SBR sportsbook is my cryptonite since I'll even throw whatever betpoints i have on the bets I feel can't lose...and they lose.
I think those newer to betting, not newbies per say, have a tendency to remember the times their gut was right and get mad at themselves for not listening and forgetting the times they would have lost. Kind of like remembering bad beats, but forgetting the times the bad beat was in your favor and you were lucky to win with a back door cover. We all do it, it's human nature, just after awhile of betting for a longer period of time you are able to recognize it. Anyway my 2 cents, finally a topic in the think tank I didn't feel was out of my circle of competence

**whareouttogetme** · 11-03-15, 01:14 AM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

Bottom line... it's CONFIDENCE. It's hard to be brilliantly confident 24/7 when gambling and making the right call. Clearly... if your confidence is just average... emotions come into play changing your angle or approach on a read.

When my confidence is off the charts... I make better reads. It's mind over matter.

I think this is correct tbh

Last week I was feeling great. Every pick I was making seemed to be the right call, and when I saw something that looked good, I played it.

Then I had a really bad night, made some shitty picks and just lost it. Instead of making picks I would have been making before, I was passing them up and doubting myself. Of course many times they went on to cash

Tonight in the hockey I had Nucks to win in regulation, and I was watching the game and sure they'd cover the -1.5 but I had this awful feeling that Flyers will score (since that has team ****** me over so much) and I'll end up losing both bets. So I passed, and a minute later they scored and went on to win 4-1

Last week I would have played it no problem. I need to get my shit together soon since usually the next 3 days (UCL and Europa games) are when I make the most profit

**Igor_1965** · 11-03-15, 02:49 AM

I feel very stressed almost every time I put money in play. I may be addicted?

Maybe just stressed when researching and placing a bet. And VERY stressed throughout the evening when games are being played. What I find interesting is that the size of the bet is almost irrelevant. If there's risk and uncertainty my blood pressure will react instantly and it takes a long time to calm the bleep down. I feel like I'm the target of those When the fun stops, STOP commercials.

**Ebe** · 11-03-15, 02:59 AM

I have found that the gut has an uncanny knack for being correct.

But you need to just focus and place straight bets on all your initial reads, utilizing solid BR management.

If you have a bad day you still need to go right back in it tomorrow and place all your solid plays.

This is of course assuming you know sports and sports betting are a +EV guy

**Frank Rosenthol** · 11-05-15, 07:29 PM

Bet it and forget it

**runwithit** · 11-05-15, 08:03 PM

I feel like I should be paid without having to wait for the game to be played.

**Igor_1965** · 11-12-15, 12:57 PM

Has anyone noticed that how excited or angry or stressed you get over a wager, is almost irrelevant of the bet size? A huge difference between a $10 bet and no bet, much larger than a $10 bet and a $500 bet. Am I crazy?

**zlaroc** · 11-12-15, 07:33 PM

jets tonight -2 baby !

**LordVodka** · 11-12-15, 10:32 PM

It probably has to do with relaxing. If you're gut and brain are in the same place then place that bet otherwise stay away.

**noyb** · 01-30-16, 07:22 PM

Originally posted by Waterstpub87

Doubt your subconscious is better at analyzing sports games than you are. Maybe this is a better explanation?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

obviously by far the best post in this whole thread

**LordVodka** · 01-30-16, 09:56 PM

I think most of us look at a line and right away we have an opinion on what the winner might be. This is based on nothing. When you study a bet most of us are just looking for data to reaffirm our first impression.

I think what happens to a lot of people is that after you make the bet you're no longer actively thinking of the bet so you're mind is actually free to process the information. Let it sit a while and then make the bet.

**MATHKIDDIKHTAM** · 01-31-16, 02:37 PM

OP said something about checking scores every 5 minutes. That is the issue right there.

They say to be successful long term in poker (namely online poker) ..that poker has to become very boring. That is because you need to fold fold fold fold fold fold fold and wait wait wait for BEST spots and situations.

Applying that to SB'g ... I suggest cherry picking games and playing a small set % that never waivers.

Make pre-game analysis (write-ups) and post-game (reality of the situation/what did we learn kind of thing) ..strive to be a professional and not a degen.

**Aleksys** · 03-04-16, 12:49 PM

sometimes i feel my loosing bets after i did a bet already(

**jmunzz1116** · 03-08-16, 08:32 AM

Originally posted by ohdecas

I want to discuss here how you feel when you place a bet..
Yesterday for exemple I took Sampdoria to win against Empoli but while placing it and just after the bet a bad feeling raped me. Offcourse later the bet was lost.
This isn't the first time that it seem my guts knows more than my brain, it happens often, I place a bet that I studied for like 30 minutes and the moment I place the money down I begin to feel bad..

Contrary when I place a winning bet it seem that my body/brain/guts whatever is more relaxed, I don't need to check scores every 5 minutes and so on..

My point of view is that my subconscius mind make a much more predictive analysis than my conscius mind. I know that our subconscius mind is faster and can elaborate many many MANY data in a really short period of time (1-3 seconds?).

Do anyone there listen on their gut feelings to make the final decision about a bet? Or am I just too much tired and it's time to go sleep?

Salutoni.

Science has known for over 100 years that our mind directly influences reality. Also intuition should never be ignored.

**dhristov211** · 03-10-16, 04:29 PM

Originally posted by MATHKIDDIKHTAM

OP said something about checking scores every 5 minutes. That is the issue right there.

They say to be successful long term in poker (namely online poker) ..that poker has to become very boring. That is because you need to fold fold fold fold fold fold fold and wait wait wait for BEST spots and situations.

Applying that to SB'g ... I suggest cherry picking games and playing a small set % that never waivers.

Make pre-game analysis (write-ups) and post-game (reality of the situation/what did we learn kind of thing) ..strive to be a professional and not a degen.

great advice

**Artizan** · 04-04-16, 06:34 AM

whe n you bet a good factor is confidence b - cause smtms the feelings may confuse us; however we cannot ignore our feelings because many times they lead us on the right way, here we should find a balance

**klemopixx** · 04-04-16, 03:31 PM

Usually if I get a boner when I'm calling it in then I'll double the bet. As others have said, it's usually on a game where I'm sweating my choice. If the choice is obvious, then the outcome isn't.

**ico2525** · 04-05-16, 01:47 PM

horny

**Stef@n** · 04-06-16, 03:12 AM

Originally posted by Waterstpub87

Doubt your subconscious is better at analyzing sports games than you are. Maybe this is a better explanation?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

Or this:

Affect heuristic - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affect_heuristic