NCAA Football Totals

[SightSeer]

I am looking for a formula, or some information on how to come up with an estimated total for the game. I used to have this somewhere, but it's been so long since I've used it, I just can't remember. It seems like it had something to do with taking the points scored and allowed from Team A, and comparing that with the points scored and allowed from Team B, and then using the NCAA scoring average to come up with a predicted total. Does this sound accurate?

I am not using this to actually bet with, but only to use for handicapping the upcoming week to give me an idea on the pace of the game.

Thank you for any info anyone can provide!

[antonyp22]

You probably mean:

Home Team Projected Score = (Home Team Average Pts Scored * Away Team Average Pts Allowed) / Average Pts Scored League

And vice-versa for the away team.

Sum them both and there's your total.

Hope this helps.

[SightSeer]

That's perfect and exactly what I was looking for.

Thank you!

[Frank Rosenthol]

One note to always tgink about with CFB totals is to never tease them. Its as square as it gets

[floridagolfer]

What does the NCAA scoring average, or Average Points Scored League, have to do with anything?

[scottgodson1985]

the simplest formula for me that has worked reasonably well aganist cfb opening totals on cris is u take the #56 which is the average total of cfb games for the past 3 years,, including this year,, the sample size here is huge,, know i usually just bet games where u have 2 good offense's and or terrible deffense's,, and ill bet that game over. #keep it simple

[antonyp22]

The question was asked about what was a basic formula to give a starting number for NCAA totals.

The above equation alone will not beat totals markets, nor will any other simple subjective system based on whether a team has a good/bad offense.

If you don't have a good grasp of statistical modelling/machine learning techniques and methods and the ability to devote a good amount of time to implementing them, then you will not beat these markets long term.

[CHUBNUT]

The quickest way to estimate totals is to sum the Yards per game Offense and Defense of both teams and divide by 13.80. You can be more picky and move it to the nearest key number after that. If the actual total is significantly higher then look for defensive injuries, likewise lower would indicate offensive injuries or expected bad weather. The NFL can be done the same dividing by 14.80.