Yards-per-point calc.....

[ScreaminPain]

I'm looking for a little guidance from some of the more stats minded people. I'm trying to create a formula that accurately reflects a Yards-per-Point figure for a given team, using Yds/Pt data that is readily available.

TEAM A 14.5 Yd/pt on Off. 12.7 Yd/pt on Def TEAM A Opponents 15.0 Yds/pt on Off 13.7 yds/pt Def.
TEAM B 13.0 Yd/pt on Off. 12.5 Yd/pt on Def. TEAM B Opponents 10.1 Yds/pt on Off 13.2 yds/pt De

Lets say Team A's offense scores at a rate of 14.5 YD/PT. However, they are playing Team B, that avg. allowing opponents to score at a 12.5 Yd/Pt clip. Now, Team B has played teams that are scoring at a rate of 10.1 Yd/pt.

First appearance is that Team A will have an easier time of it, BUT, TEAM B's def has actually been stout, causing opp to travel 2.4 yd farther to score.

I know this is a bit confusing, but any guidance would be appreciated....

[a4u2fear]

you have to use the league average when adjusting the expected yds/pt for the game.

off yd/pt = off yd/pt * (opponent D yd/pt div b y league avg d yd/pt)

[a4u2fear]

all books i read show only adjusting once, not twice (which would be adjusting off yd/pt by league avg as well)

[ScreaminPain]

you have to use the league average when adjusting the expected yds/pt for the game.

Yes, I agree the league avg. yd/pt is a viable adjustment. However, in your formula below, the def Yd/pt adjustment would describe the defensive ability vs. league avg opponents but doesnt' address the capabilities of the recent opponents. Also, why would it not be an adjustment for Offensive yd/pt.?

off yd/pt = off yd/pt * (opponent D yd/pt div b y league avg d yd/pt)

What about something like this: Tm A's Off Yd/pt*((Tm A Off yd/pt+Tm A's opp def yd/pt)/2)/league Off avg Yd/pt

.....then use the same formula using Team A's opponent.....only using Defensive stats.