Which stat source is less wrong?

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  • jane2geo
    SBR Hustler
    • 04-28-10
    • 93

    #1
    Which stat source is less wrong?
    I use forced fumbles in my NFL model. It’s a very small factor for sure but does anyone know
    who’s stats are less wrong? When I scrape PPD I get 439 total FF’s. Of course these are real time and are often adjusted after the fact. Espn, Yahoo, and NFL.com have concurrence on only 6 teams and list totals of 500, 407, 453 respectively for the 2014’16 game regular season.
    Thoughts or insight are welcome.
  • a4u2fear
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 01-29-10
    • 8147

    #2
    I'm not sure which are right or wrong, but I use ESPN for most of my stats and while I can't say they are 100% right, they are helping me beat the lines...

    Just a suggestion - do not use fumbles recovered but use total fumbles. It's been proven that recovering a fumble is extremely random but if you're forcing more there is a good chance eventually you'll get one or two recovered.
    Comment
    • jane2geo
      SBR Hustler
      • 04-28-10
      • 93

      #3
      Originally posted by a4u2fear
      - do not use fumbles recovered but use total fumbles. It's been proven that recovering a fumble is extremely random but if you're forcing more there is a good chance eventually you'll get one or two recovered.
      Agreed, just looking at potential recoveries from FF’s.

      I think I’ve resolved my quandary. When comparing player FF rather than just team forced fumbles I found that the higher numbers from ESPN include FF’s from offensive players, ie. Geno Smith had two FF, …really! Not exactly the type of FF that I want in my predictive numbers.

      Thanks a4u2 and anyone else that gave any thought to my question.
      Comment
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