how to calculate odds of successfully middling a game

[stefan084]

couldn't find anything yet. would need chance of team x winning by 3,4 or whatever added up I guess but don't know where to find that info. any help appreciated

[stefan084]

I have 348 pts for any help

[A4K]

What game are you looking at? I can help.

[stefan084]

nothing in particular but ex. an NBA game and say you got Team A (-2.5) then Team B (+4.5). what are the chances that it team A wins by exactly 3 or 4 points and you get the middle?

[A4K]

To calculate the odds is extremely difficult and would require a lot of simulations because you are trying to measure the distance between two variables. Let me talk to my math friend. I have a feeling we are going to need a Kurtosis calculator. Give me a little time and I'll PM you.

[KVB]

nothing in particular but ex. an NBA game and say you got Team A (-2.5) then Team B (+4.5). what are the chances that it team A wins by exactly 3 or 4 points and you get the middle?

The real question you are asking is what percentage of the time does a 2.5 point favorite win by exactly 3 or 4 points.

You would need a database to take every 2.5 favorite and every margin of victory therein. Technically, you could do this for every margin of victory and get a percentage for each. I would suggest windowing around 2.5, depending on how you get your lines, which could also create problems.

You would likely need to create a look up chart with every point spread and every margin of victory for every point spread.

With this information you could add the chances of each margin ofvictory for your particular line until you reach your middle limit.

You could go even further by compiling a database of closing lines, live lines, and margins of victory.

Even with these percentages, and discipline, you still may not be able to turn a profit, partly due to vigorish.

All this may not be worth the effort however. If you, with proper adjustments, can create your own line and compare that line to the market, you may be able to determine a more definite edge that is more easily verifiable.

Not that I am against middles, but get the initial pick right, and no need to sell back.

You don’t need much to profit handsomely.

I'm not going post the time publicly, but for those willing to put in the effort and get creative, I offer this glimpse on how to build the watch.

[stefan084]

why cant I send pts?

[raiders72001]

couldn't find anything yet. would need chance of team x winning by 3,4 or whatever added up I guess but don't know where to find that info. any help appreciated

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tools/half-point-calculator/

[KVB]

That calculator is good, but notice that you can enter your own push probabilities.

There's a reason for this.