If you could only use one tool what would it be?

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  • GSoro
    SBR Hustler
    • 02-26-14
    • 87

    #1
    If you could only use one tool what would it be?
    If you could only use one tool for handicapping games, like going off of only ONE stat OR ONE trend (rather it be public trends, or '78-13 on the road' type of trends) which ONE metric do you think is the most valuable?

    For me I think it would be the 'As a favorite' trend' if I had to choose right now but I'm still not certain. What about you guys??
  • a4u2fear
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 01-29-10
    • 8147

    #2
    Do not follow trends
    Comment
    • GSoro
      SBR Hustler
      • 02-26-14
      • 87

      #3
      I disagree but interested in why you believe so? And to you what's the most important tool you use? Rather it's a key stat or anything...
      Comment
      • GSoro
        SBR Hustler
        • 02-26-14
        • 87

        #4
        I disagree but interested in why you believe so? And to you what's the most important tool you use? Rather it's a key stat or anything...
        Comment
        • Sawyer
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 06-01-09
          • 7720

          #5
          Originally posted by GSoro
          If you could only use one tool for handicapping games, like going off of only ONE stat OR ONE trend (rather it be public trends, or '78-13 on the road' type of trends) which ONE metric do you think is the most valuable?

          For me I think it would be the 'As a favorite' trend' if I had to choose right now but I'm still not certain. What about you guys??
          Pinnacle U/O Lean in NBA.
          Comment
          • a4u2fear
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 01-29-10
            • 8147

            #6
            Originally posted by GSoro
            I disagree but interested in why you believe so? And to you what's the most important tool you use? Rather it's a key stat or anything...
            I don't use a "single tool" or "trend", I use hundreds/thousands of games, hundred/thousands of stats to develop my own lines, predicted scores, etc. using detailed analysis and excessive mathematics.

            It's not as simple as one trend
            Comment
            • dalogester
              SBR MVP
              • 01-02-13
              • 1088

              #7
              Number of white chicks banged the night before. Oh and if there is other races subtract 1 from the equation. If the number is greater than 2 then its a 5 star play 10 units. 1-2 would be a 3 star play for 5 units. 0 Is a no play and -1 and on is a straight fade for 3 units.

              Cheers!
              Comment
              • yak merchant
                SBR High Roller
                • 11-04-10
                • 109

                #8
                Originally posted by dalogester
                Number of white chicks banged the night before. Oh and if there is other races subtract 1 from the equation. If the number is greater than 2 then its a 5 star play 10 units. 1-2 would be a 3 star play for 5 units. 0 Is a no play and -1 and on is a straight fade for 3 units.

                Cheers!
                You laugh but I used to have a "White dudes on defense" NCAAF system that wasn't far off and won money.
                Comment
                • Big Bear
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 11-01-11
                  • 43253

                  #9
                  One tool??????

                  FILM.

                  What i do is every week i randomly DVR different games that i dont have time to watch. And then at some point i go back and watch them. I dont like to bet for or against any team i have not seen on film.

                  And before wagering a game i try to cram as much film study as possible in.

                  i am a really good judge of talent. I look for all kinds of things but body language and confidence goes a long way.

                  This was the biggest reason i was so confident Ohio State was going to beat Bama str8 up.

                  I saw major holes in Bama's secondary. And I saw a Ohio state team who was playing with "swagger"
                  Comment
                  • Big Bear
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 11-01-11
                    • 43253

                    #10
                    so whatever you wager NHL, NBA , college hoops start DVRing games so that you build yourself a nice inventory of film on every team you may potentially want to wager for or against

                    this is especially helpful in college basketball since there are litterally 100's of teams.

                    in the NBA this is not as useful of a tool bc u never know what kind of effort a team is going to give

                    in college for the most part u know the players are going hard every night.
                    Comment
                    • 3PtShooter
                      SBR MVP
                      • 04-13-08
                      • 3936

                      #11
                      use the Hunch theory tool
                      Comment
                      • Dakota
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 12-06-05
                        • 237

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Sawyer
                        Pinnacle U/O Lean in NBA.
                        could u elaborate on this system? Do u compare lines vs. other books? tia
                        Comment
                        • statnerds
                          SBR MVP
                          • 09-23-09
                          • 4047

                          #13
                          CLV

                          positive you will win long term

                          negative you are fukked
                          Comment
                          • GSoro
                            SBR Hustler
                            • 02-26-14
                            • 87

                            #14
                            Originally posted by a4u2fear
                            I don't use a "single tool" or "trend", I use hundreds/thousands of games, hundred/thousands of stats to develop my own lines, predicted scores, etc. using detailed analysis and excessive mathematics.

                            It's not as simple as one trend
                            Well of course, hopefully we all do....I was just seeing if anybody had a favorite metric is all... Just creating conversation...
                            Comment
                            • GSoro
                              SBR Hustler
                              • 02-26-14
                              • 87

                              #15
                              Originally posted by yak merchant
                              You laugh but I used to have a "White dudes on defense" NCAAF system that wasn't far off and won money.
                              lmao
                              Comment
                              • GSoro
                                SBR Hustler
                                • 02-26-14
                                • 87

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Big Bear
                                One tool??????

                                FILM.

                                What i do is every week i randomly DVR different games that i dont have time to watch. And then at some point i go back and watch them. I dont like to bet for or against any team i have not seen on film.

                                And before wagering a game i try to cram as much film study as possible in.

                                i am a really good judge of talent. I look for all kinds of things but body language and confidence goes a long way.

                                This was the biggest reason i was so confident Ohio State was going to beat Bama str8 up.

                                I saw major holes in Bama's secondary. And I saw a Ohio state team who was playing with "swagger"
                                Even though I personally don't, this here is probably the most important tool I must say
                                Comment
                                • CidaliaRod
                                  SBR Rookie
                                  • 01-08-14
                                  • 8

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Big Bear
                                  One tool??????

                                  ... but body language and confidence goes a long way.
                                  If you could find a way to measure confidence that should be your tool.
                                  Comment
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