Bet Against the Public Results for the Previous 6 MLB Seasons

**SportsInsights** · 04-04-09, 02:47 PM

louisvillekid,

Not all 7 sportsbooks provide us with the # of bets stat. If you look at our FAQ section you'll see this explained in more detail. We get the # of bets stats from 3 sportsbooks. Paying members at SI can see the betting % broken out in to the individual sportsbook. I would need more detailed info on the game in question to give you a direct reply. Each sportsbook will often have different betting percentage usually a 10-20% difference on any game. This is why it’s important to get as big of a sample as possible.

As for SportsbookSpy / Pregame, that was really just a marketing partnership between Pregame and Sports Insights. It was the same exact content as you'd see on SI but with a Spy logo. Unfortunately the deal with Pregame feel apart and they decided to create their own feature. They will not disclose where they are getting their betting percentage data which makes me suspicious about the quality of their data.

Dan

**louisvillekid** · 04-04-09, 03:10 PM

Originally posted by SportsInsights

louisvillekid,

Not all 7 sportsbooks provide us with the # of bets stat. If you look at our FAQ section you'll see this explained in more detail. We get the # of bets stats from 3 sportsbooks. Paying members at SI can see the betting % broken out in to the individual sportsbook. I would need more detailed info on the game in question to give you a direct reply. Each sportsbook will often have different betting percentage usually a 10-20% difference on any game. This is why it’s important to get as big of a sample as possible.

As for SportsbookSpy / Pregame, that was really just a marketing partnership between Pregame and Sports Insights. It was the same exact content as you'd see on SI but with a Spy logo. Unfortunately the deal with Pregame feel apart and they decided to create their own feature. They will not disclose where they are getting their betting percentage data which makes me suspicious about the quality of their data.

Dan

well now that you say you only are stating %'s and number of bets from 3 books, but list 7 , i guess it doesn't really matter.
I had e-mailed pregame trying to find out how many they use and was asking them if they use the same as you guys or more, since they always have a higher number of bets on a single game than SI.
All i got was this....

Dear XXXX,
Your satisfaction is the reason Pregame.com is in business.
Always feel free to ask us any questions you may have.

I can help you with this. Please note that Sportsbook Spy uses multiple sportsbooks to provide information. BetUS and Sportbet are two of the books at Sportsbook Spy. You can check out the best offers from them at PregameAction.com

There are other books, but we agreed not to reveal their names.

Sportsbook Spy is the ONLY free product that combines:
* Real time data - no info held back on delay
* Data directly from multiple sportsbooks
* Not only sides, but also money lines, run lines, totals & exotics

Best regards,

Tom Patterson
Customer Service | Pregame .com

and about the question regarding the relation of the number of bets SI lists in relation to how many books and how many bets Carib would show.
Their was no certain game, i could check any game and the numbers wouldn't seem right.
But since you explained it's only 3 books and not the 7 listed, that would seem right then when Carib would seem to have a 1/3 or more of the bets sometimes.

**Wrecktangle** · 04-04-09, 11:24 PM

SportsInsights: do you have historical dbs of NFL action (at least) available to your clients? BTW, I noticed at Twominutewarning your sides work. Looked good.

**SportsInsights** · 04-05-09, 09:42 AM

Wrecktangle, yes we offer a downloadable database of betting % and opening/closing lines. We encourage people to both confirm our results and do their own research.

louisvillekid, thanks for sharing the email reply from Pregame. I love how they state - "There are other books, but we agreed not to reveal their names." What kind of crap is that?

**Wrecktangle** · 04-05-09, 10:27 AM

OK, I'm really starting to get interested. As I look over your product line, you have:

2nd half data
weather
opening and closing lines
injuries
down loadable going back how far?

I'm all about own research as I simply don't trust anyone else's modeling or data and I'm constantly rechecking my own sh*t.

Building accurate dbs is the b*tch of this business and I spend far too much time QCing data to suite me. If folks realized how many decisions (and lost money) were based on bogus data, they'd be more interested. But they ain't got time, gets in the way of the action.

BTW, what do I do when I find an inaccuracy in YOUR db? BTW, I found a number of errors in NFL Gamebooks, Goldsheets data (we're the best in the biz), etc. None of these guys write you back.

**SportsInsights** · 04-05-09, 01:01 PM

If you find an error just email us. We'll first verify it's an error, and then fix it. The db goes back to 2003. We use Pinn's opener/closer. There is s page on our site that offers a more detailed description and a sample file. I'd suggest opening a chat up and have one of the customer service guys let you know where that page is. It's in the "Products" tab.

Dan

**jwunderdog** · 04-07-09, 01:33 PM

The units won, what lines are you using to determine this? open/closing? Pinny lines or one of the square books? thanks

**LT Profits** · 04-07-09, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by jwunderdog

The units won, what lines are you using to determine this? open/closing? Pinny lines or one of the square books? thanks

Whatever the line is at the time of the triggering book.

**jwunderdog** · 04-07-09, 02:45 PM

I am confused what do you mean by triggering book?

"Table 1: MLB and Betting Against the Public (2003-2008 Seasons)
Bet % Home Visitor Total
50 +103 -54 +49 units
40 +91 -30 +61
30 +64 +13 +77
25 +67 -46 +21
20 +20 -4 +16
15 +28 -5 +23

Using the Table

* In addition to overall "Bet Against" results, we have broken out how Betting Against the Public works if a team is either a Home team or a Visitor.
* For example, if a Home team has less than 30% of the public betting on them (Visitor has more than 70% of the public), this scenario resulted in +64 units! "

What does triggering book have to do with betting something that is 70% against the public?
My question in this example is what book were you betting at that would have gotten you 64 units, as far as I can tell there is no mention of "triggering book".

**LT Profits** · 04-07-09, 03:56 PM

Sorry, I thought you were talking about their record keeping on Smart Money, Steam Moves, etc...

I'll let Dan answer your question himself.

**vegasafternoon** · 04-07-09, 06:26 PM

I use this to see what people are betting on

"

**Unitage** · 04-08-09, 04:06 PM

vegasinsider have pretty inflated public numbers, I wouldnt follow those.
Also vegasafternoon your talking about a 1 day sample size? 1 day means nothing. Try a few full seasons to get an idea.

**louisvillekid** · 04-08-09, 10:15 PM

"

**SportsInsights** · 04-09-09, 12:53 PM

louisvillekid,

You are 100% correct. VegasInsider just lists Sportsbook.com numbers...which are the PERCENTAGE OF BETS ON EACH TEAM. There is a lot of confusion out there about betting percentage data in general. Sports.com, Sportsbook.com, ScoresandOdds, and VegasInsider all display Sportsbook.com betting percentages data.

jwunderdog,

We use the closing odds from Pinnacle in our study.

Unitage,
I couldn't agree with you more. Anyone can go 5-0 and but very few people can win over the long haul, meaning more than 1 season.

Professional scamdicappers know this and make it near impossible to track/monitor their plays. They constantly change the name of their systems. For example their Game of Day becomes the Monday Night Play of Day…etc. After the Monday Night Play of Day goes 0-1, then it becomes the Game of Decade play. Nobody wants to hear a handicapper went 58-50, +2.2 Units for the season….even though that’s winning and really hard to do. They want to hear he’s 8-2 + 5.2 Units.

The systems I use and track stay the same year in and year out. This makes it’s extremely difficult to post winning season every year. We expect to hit 53%-55% of our games but we do have losing seasons. It’s the same in Wall Street. If a guy (ie Bernie Madoff) has never shown a lose in 20 years, someone is cooking the books.

The above finds we published looks at 5 season’s worth of betting percentage data. Our findings are that fading the public has been a profitable system. You can increase your Units won by only betting home underdog and when the betting % are in the 70/30 range. The betting percentage data we use and collect is from 7 online spotsbooks...not 1. One of the most interesting facts about fading the public is this system works in all major US sports. We track it for NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, etc...and they all show positive results typically in the 52%-55% range. We encourage our people to use our downloadable database to conduct their own research and to combine the bet against the public system in their own handicapping methods.

Regards,
Dan

**vegasafternoon** · 04-09-09, 09:38 PM

I guess it is confusing?

"

**SportsInsights** · 04-10-09, 09:23 AM

Vegasafternoon,
The bet % info that appears on VegasInsider is not from any Vegas sportsbook. It comes from one online sportsbook, Sportsbook.com. You can you visit Sportsbook.com and check for yourself.

Betting lines move for all kinds of reasons. Sometimes it’s heavy one sided Public money; sometimes its 1 or 2 bettors betting the limits. By monitoring the betting percentages you’ll get a deeper understand of what's causing the line to move. If the line goes against the team the Public is on, we alert our members to this and track it as a "Smart Money" play. For example if 75% of the Public was betting on Lakers -5 but the line moved to Lakers -4, our belief is Smart Money (big money) came in on the other side.

Dan

**u21c3f6** · 04-10-09, 12:12 PM

Originally posted by SportsInsights

Vegasafternoon,
The bet % info that appears on VegasInsider is not from any Vegas sportsbook. It comes from one online sportsbook, Sportsbook.com. You can you visit Sportsbook.com and check for yourself.

Betting lines move for all kinds of reasons. Sometimes it’s heavy one sided Public money; sometimes its 1 or 2 bettors betting the limits. By monitoring the betting percentages you’ll get a deeper understand of what's causing the line to move. If the line goes against the team the Public is on, we alert our members to this and track it as a "Smart Money" play. For example if 75% of the Public was betting on Lakers -5 but the line moved to Lakers -4, our belief is Smart Money (big money) came in on the other side.

Dan

Assuming the above is true, does this "knowledge" give you an edge? Is it possible that the edge bet was the opposing team at +5 but not at +4?

Joe.

**LT Profits** · 04-10-09, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by u21c3f6

Assuming the above is true, does this "knowledge" give you an edge? Is it possible that the edge bet was the opposing team at +5 but not at +4?

Joe.

This is where a slow-moving book is golden.

**payingthejuice** · 04-11-09, 03:55 AM

Is this were the saying "The Masses are ASSES!!" comes from??