Question for stat experts

**Buffalo Nickle** · 12-04-14, 10:13 AM

I am not a stats expert and did not sleep in a Holiday Inn last night but I do have a probability chart for such things. I believe you equate to a bit less than a 53% handicapper at -110 odds. My chart only goes out 1,000 bets but at that rate your return would be just 1.5% likely due to luck alone. At 3,000 bets, I think it's safe to say you are well under 1% due to luck.

Don't know if that answer is good enough for you. But it is the best you have so far.

**Buffalo Nickle** · 12-04-14, 10:38 AM

Actually, my comparing you to a 53% handicapper is completely off. But that only decreases the chances that your performance is due to luck.

**bihon** · 12-04-14, 12:32 PM

The chance that your results are due to luck is 1/357, thus very small.

I just answered the similar question here:

Need advice on a book for a handicapper based sport betting system - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicapper-think-tank/2936167-need-advice-book-handicapper-based-sport-betting-system.html#post23125069

Handicapping theories, betting systems, tips, tricks, odds and math

**tristello** · 12-04-14, 02:05 PM

ty very much for your answers I really appreciated. It was important for me knowing them before deciding to inrement my stake... thx a lot

**Playon** · 01-15-15, 09:50 PM

Looking good for you. I believe you are making 2-3% ROI in the future.

However, I have seen winning punters (decades of winning betting) having losing streaks of over 3000 bets with lower odds avarage. I think that's not only mathematical question. It would be in coin tossing, but not in sportsbetting. For example those huge downswings are because of wrong estimations in some year for some series or teams and losing streak follows because of estimations done at the first place. Estimations are changed later, but shit has happened already. I think that after 3000 bets we still need to look at the man instead of numbers. How propably is these right or wrong basic estimations done again. Which kind of betting strategy or knowledge is behind the curtain.

Anyway, convincing results here and very likely profitable betting in the future too.

**tristello** · 01-16-15, 06:29 AM

Ty very much, very important words for me, very helpful for my betting activity...

**Miz** · 01-17-15, 08:14 AM

i agree. barring any crazy filters, or other shenanigans you have something solid on your hands

**scumbag** · 01-17-15, 11:53 PM

i was kind of wondering this.

no math person at all. just an someone who see's the game the right way, 750 bets over 4 seasons 1.75m risked. 238k profit.

whats the fish on a heater probability here?

i tend to make a lot of these +130/+150 ML bets. so my winning percentage isn't beyond insane, but my ROI seems insane.

considering what you guys are talking about with this 2% thing. again, no math expert, but it looks like mine is like 12% or something.

this is probably due to volume? i'd imagine, betting many games with small edges for big money can be quite profitable, im sure. where i tend to take a far more conservative approach. as you can see by only 750 bets over 4 seasons.

this must be why my roi is so much higher?

but i only know what i know, and what i know best is these small dogs that i think are going to win, and they have, more often than not. i don't know of these 'maths' and 'algorithms'. although im def jelly those people.

please math person, calculate this thing for me. if my sample is even large enough.

**scumbag** · 01-17-15, 11:57 PM

and i'd also like to share my current BR strat. that ive used most the time.

break my roll into 20 bets. if i've got 40k, i'll fire 2k/game figuring 20 bet downswing are unlikely, and they have been, worst down was like 13 bets and i came storming back.

so if you could tell me the fish on a heater prob, and the risk of ruin considering my br strat?

if i've given enough info, thanks in advance.

**IWANTMONEY** · 01-18-15, 11:59 AM

Originally posted by scumbag

750 bets over 4 seasons 1.75m risked. 238k profit.

whats the fish on a heater probability here?

I dont think you need any advice about anything - you need to be giving it