a very long post,sorry

[tachi]

since 6 years I read one of the biggest forums in Europe
sometimes one of the pros give a very valuable info,
for example that the new Aussi champions
will play with the reserves in their last match,
that Istres (France2) have so many injured and sick players that they have only the option the second team,
for a match in German regional liga in which for one of the teams will start 4 players,which have played an year ago in the World Cup.
they explained that the most important thing in betting is the inside info and to bet early when the bookies don't have that info.

This was confirmed when one of the respectable members,
(who gives every week picks on Primera division),had a problem with
Cris.They locked his account because he bet on a fixed match in Hungary 2nd division.(Mr.Dozer knows this case)
I was curious how can a spanish guy know for a fix in Hungary-
friends and a network of info I suppose.
And this is needed to win from sports betting.

Then I saw this forum and was very surprised what Durito,Ganch,Alex,20four7 say-a model for the win probabilities,based on stats and other factors.
Nobody talks about inside info-to know early who will play,the concrete motivation and situation in the team,etc. and when sometimes occures some fixed matches.

I don't know,may be with something like this
you can hit 54%.But I believe firstly on my eyes.
I remembered one conversation here,between 2 pros-an englishman
and an US.
HeeeHAWWWW: Pinnacle have crappy limits on some sports, it's quite surprising. $100 on Russian ice hockey for example - why even bother putting up the lines at all?
durito:KHL Limits are uncircled to $1,000 ML, $2,000 Spread, $1,000 total a couple hours (or perhaps only an hour sometimes) before gametime.
HeeeHAWWWW:Aha! Thanks, much appreciated

There is something strange here.HH ( a pro player) doesn't know his limits on KHL in Pinnacle and then thanks Durito for telling him.

recently I bet on Bars-Dinamo and watched the live betting at Betfair.The odds for draw was -1000 since the 1st minute during all the match.I thought it's a lack of liquidity,despite the 20k matched.
And then one of my friend said me that a friend of his friend has made a lot of money,betting on fixed draws in KHL.The russians make this to win money from the bookmakers.
I lost my bet,because of the 2-2 result.
But I can now translate their conversation.

Durito simply doesn't fit the profile of a math genious (with big glasses),winning with a formula.As he has said he can't win on NFL,MLB and even NBA.
His model doesn't work.(ok,it works for NCAA and WNBA).
But he knows everything for everyone.
That's the real model to win.

[Dark Horse]

What are you saying? Match fixing is a problem, but it is part of the total equation. In the end it should even out ('you win some/you lose some' fixed matches), unless the player uses bad money management. If fixes become too obvious, as in European soccer, with tens or even hundreds (?) of matches under UEFA investigation, I would steer clear of the sport.

I can't say I'm impressed with the Russian maffia's influence on sports gambling. Actually, I am impressed, but I wish they would go somewhere else.

[Peep]

Well, maybe posters here are full of it, maybe not.

Either way don't put a Euro in my pocket. So I really don't care.

I take what info I can use, try and walk in other gamblers shoes, see if they fit. If I can learn something, I am happy for it. If I can contribute and help another gambler find his path, that is great too.

[xyz]

The bottom line is making as much money as possible. If you have a choice of using math hitting at 54% for 10000 games a year, or using inside info for 10 games a year hitting at 70%, what approach would you pick if you can only pick one?

[durito]

Huh?

I don't anything about anything.

[Dark Horse]

I think the conclusion was that you were not a math genius because you didn't include match fixing.