Hey,
I try to solve this problem since weeks but I can't find the right method. Any help would be greatly appreciated.
A bettor has made 2000 wagers on sport events with two possible outcomes. The amount he's wagered on each event is variable and ranges from $1 to $200. All the data (odds, amounts wagered, resuts) are reported in a spreadsheet.
His overall ROI on all his bets is 4%.
However, if we sort all his bets in ascending odds order and cut the spectrum of odds he has taken (which ranges from 1 to 15 say) in slices, we can see that he has a way better ROI at odds around 1.8 than he has at odds around 1.2.
My goal is to determine as precisely as possible what ROI we can expect from him at each given odds and get the results in form of a smooth chart line.
I tried a lot of different "intuitive" methods but none of them gives me satisfying results: averaging the neighboring odds, applying an exponential smoothing, cutting the spectrum of odds in slices, etc... All these give me either a too erratic incoherent line (ROI of 11% at 1.675 and ROI of -2% at 1.690, for exemple) or a too incurrate and flat line.
What method should be used in order to get the most precise picture of the ROI we can expect from this bettor at each odds?
Thanks in advance fro your help!
PS: My guess currently is that we should work directly with the column which display the amount won/lost on each wager and not the ROI. Perhaps, while keeping the same sum of total amount won, we should apportion the money won/loss on each wager in a smoother way...
I try to solve this problem since weeks but I can't find the right method. Any help would be greatly appreciated.
A bettor has made 2000 wagers on sport events with two possible outcomes. The amount he's wagered on each event is variable and ranges from $1 to $200. All the data (odds, amounts wagered, resuts) are reported in a spreadsheet.
His overall ROI on all his bets is 4%.
However, if we sort all his bets in ascending odds order and cut the spectrum of odds he has taken (which ranges from 1 to 15 say) in slices, we can see that he has a way better ROI at odds around 1.8 than he has at odds around 1.2.
My goal is to determine as precisely as possible what ROI we can expect from him at each given odds and get the results in form of a smooth chart line.
I tried a lot of different "intuitive" methods but none of them gives me satisfying results: averaging the neighboring odds, applying an exponential smoothing, cutting the spectrum of odds in slices, etc... All these give me either a too erratic incoherent line (ROI of 11% at 1.675 and ROI of -2% at 1.690, for exemple) or a too incurrate and flat line.
What method should be used in order to get the most precise picture of the ROI we can expect from this bettor at each odds?
Thanks in advance fro your help!
PS: My guess currently is that we should work directly with the column which display the amount won/lost on each wager and not the ROI. Perhaps, while keeping the same sum of total amount won, we should apportion the money won/loss on each wager in a smoother way...
