Pinnacle odds movement study

[HUY]

I have added some new data for you guys to check: http://www.statsfair.com/pinnacle/oddsdrift

The less odds move, the more accurate Pinnacle's opening odds were. So this data might give a hint on which markets are soft when they open. This seems to be the case with tennis for example.

[flsaders85]

I'm confused with your graphs and what you're saying about tennis. The curve foir tennis looks like a tight fit which seems like very little odds move to me. Am I intepreting that correctly?

[HUY]

I'm confused with your graphs and what you're saying about tennis. The curve foir tennis looks like a tight fit which seems like very little odds move to me. Am I intepreting that correctly?

No. The tennis curves are close together (tight, as you put it) because there is a lot of data on tennis so the estimate (middle of the three curves) is better. To see the estimate, just project to the y axis.

[nash13]

That's great work. Do you program it yourself?

[Optional]

Have you found any sport apart from baseball where the favourite odds are higher at close than open?

Do you have a theory why this is different for baseball?

How do you think we could best use this info?

[JR007]

nothing scientific here, but I have charted college football and baskets in the past.....I have seen pinny juice the wrong side the second or third move before the closing line...spread/moneyline......quite often

[HUY]

That's great work. Do you program it yourself?

Thanks! Yes, I programmed it myself.

[HUY]

Have you found any sport apart from baseball where the favourite odds are higher at close than open?

Do you have a theory why this is different for baseball?

How do you think we could best use this info?

What makes you believe that in baseball the favourite odds are higher at close than open?

[BatemanPatrickl]

nothing scientific here, but I have charted college football and baskets in the past.....I have seen pinny juice the wrong side the second or third move before the closing line...spread/moneyline......quite often

[Optional]

What makes you believe that in baseball the favourite odds are higher at close than open?

Don't worry. I misunderstood. Re-read the first post and get it now.

[OMGRandyJackson]

Have you found any sport apart from baseball where the favourite odds are higher at close than open?

Do you have a theory why this is different for baseball?

Could it be for baseball, lineups are usually posted many hours after the opening line?

[ace888]

Could it be for baseball, lineups are usually posted many hours after the opening line?

thats not the case i think