Heading into Year 5 with my modeling sequence...

**smoke a bowl** · 07-27-14, 01:07 PM

90 success rate lmao. WTF does that even mean?

**usma1992** · 07-27-14, 02:18 PM

I guess it means a 5 star pick. I haven't equated it to a dollar value etc... I have 5-6 picks that are hitting at that percentage. I assure you that I will post all my picks well ahead of time... and people can rip me apart if they fail. I have posted picks for the last couple of years and had a following on some for a while. I really don't care..all I am looking for is feedback to make my system better... if someone says the think a pick is way off... and it turns out to be.. I look into it and see what I missed it is helpful for me...

**stefan084** · 07-27-14, 03:42 PM

good luck sir

**evo34** · 08-30-14, 01:51 AM

Why don't you track your picks on a site like pickmonitor.com and actually measure how well (or not) you are doing?

**a4u2fear** · 08-30-14, 10:47 AM

good luck, but "seem to" and "will" are quite different.

**TheCentaur** · 08-31-14, 01:22 AM

Originally posted by usma1992

MLB tested but not working. NBA have just been in data collection phase. NCAAF hasn't worked yet in 4 seasons but I am cautiously optimistic. NFL worked last year but I have made modifications. NCAAB has worked more than one year.

There are several problems with this IMO

MLB isn't working. That may mean your modeling isn't working, and it happens to be showing itself in MLB

NBA just in data collection phase? There are plenty of archives of historical info, why don't you have a model for NBA?

NCAAF has been a dismal failure but you're cautiously optimistic? Why?

NFL worked one year out of five? So you modified it?

NCAAB also sounds like a loser

Bottom line it sounds like you are testing your system, then waiting to tweak it based on results to "improve" it. Problem is that isn't an improvement that's modifying based on past results. Not much different than going to a craps table with a betting strategy and then after you noticed 4s and 10s got rolled a lot changing your strategy to bet more on the 4 and 10

**staf** · 08-31-14, 11:09 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

MLB tested but not working. NBA have just been in data collection phase. NCAAF hasn't worked yet in 4 seasons but I am cautiously optimistic. NFL worked last year but I have made modifications. NCAAB has worked more than one year.

I entered into statistics Master's Degree program to assist in my program but have to keep my distance from the college. Professors have advised me to so that the university doesn't take credit for my work.

I will be posting all my picks starting week 5. I have some picks that seem to be generating 90 success rate.

Thanks
Dave

I fail to grasp the point of this post, but you're welcome

**brettd** · 08-31-14, 11:18 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

MLB tested but not working. NBA have just been in data collection phase. NCAAF hasn't worked yet in 4 seasons but I am cautiously optimistic. NFL worked last year but I have made modifications. NCAAB has worked more than one year.

I entered into statistics Master's Degree program to assist in my program but have to keep my distance from the college. Professors have advised me to so that the university doesn't take credit for my work.

I will be posting all my picks starting week 5. I have some picks that seem to be generating 90 success rate.

Thanks
Dave

A Master's Degree is a very expensive way to figure out what you need to actually learn in sports modelling when you get out of a Master's Degree.

I just got awarded my MSci (Applied Statistics) after explicitly doing it to become a better sports modeler/bettor. Academics are not the best types to learn about beating markets from.

**willyback** · 09-02-14, 12:09 AM

Originally posted by brettd

A Master's Degree is a very expensive way to figure out what you need to actually learn in sports modelling when you get out of a Master's Degree.

I just got awarded my MSci (Applied Statistics) after explicitly doing it to become a better sports modeler/bettor. Academics are not the best types to learn about beating markets from.

I agree. Academia is way too structured to think outside of the box enough to develop original models.

**willyback** · 09-02-14, 12:18 AM

Last year during the NFL season, my model was averaging 60% to 65% every other week. On my off week's I'd typically break even: rarely taking a loss. Sadly, I made the mistake of thinking that I could enhance my average winning percentage with some late season tweaks to my model. I subsequently ended-up crashing and burning in December: racking up huge losses that dug deep into my total profits for the season.

Going into this season now, I'm still trying to figure out where I went wrong.

**a4u2fear** · 09-02-14, 07:46 PM

Willy, you went wrong when you thought you had to do better than 60% and then 50% then 60% off and on

**willyback** · 09-03-14, 06:45 AM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

Willy, you went wrong when you thought you had to do better than 60% and then 50% then 60% off and on

I was in the hunt for perfection. Years and years worth of research, just to hit 60% of my games wasn't sitting well with me. I wanted to have a winning position on every game (...a recipe for surefire madness in hindsight).

We'll see what happens this year.

**HUY** · 09-04-14, 01:14 AM

Originally posted by willyback

Years and years worth of research, just to hit 60% of my games wasn't sitting well with me. I wanted to have a winning position on every game.

Nice troll man.

**Inkwell77** · 09-04-14, 01:20 AM

Originally posted by brettd

A Master's Degree is a very expensive way to figure out what you need to actually learn in sports modelling when you get out of a Master's Degree.

I just got awarded my MSci (Applied Statistics) after explicitly doing it to become a better sports modeler/bettor. Academics are not the best types to learn about beating markets from.

That is wild.
Did you learn a lot? Are you going to enter a field other than sport statistics?
It seems as if every field is looking for guys/gals who can analyze statistics in an efficient manner.

**cala56** · 09-04-14, 12:39 PM

You cant predict just whit numbers.