Using the Spread/ML conversion tool to find value

[Wayfarer]

An example of an NBA game for tonight at pinnacle:

NY Knicks +10 -102, +475
Cleveland -10 -108, -575

using the spread/ml conversion tool cleveland moneyline has an edge of 3.26%

I was curious as to how much faith I should be putting into these numbers? Would considering the total not be required for accurately making such a conversion? Also even if it isn't overly precise would it still be effective in identifying lines that would make for good bets if one is trying to meet the rollover requirements for a bonus? Since in such cases even if the bet is slightly -ev it can still lead to long term growth.

[smitch124]

To me its a bit off the further you get from a pk, but maybe you should wait for Ganch or others to comment.

[Data]

Using the Spread/ML conversion tool to find value...

...is like using a hammer to perform a brain surgery.

[Wayfarer]

Using the Spread/ML conversion tool to find value...

...is like using a hammer to perform a brain surgery.

lol

[AgainstAllOdds]

You are using the wrong tool. Try the half point calc and it will save you some time. I would try (as some have suggested) starting your own excel spreadsheet after you get the basics down.

[newbee]

Not sure about the inner workings of Spread/ML calculator, but based on Data's comments it is pretty useless, or am I missing something?

[Ganchrow]

Not sure about the inner workings of Spread/ML calculator, but based on Data's comments it is pretty useless, or am I missing something?

No, for all but the smallest of spreads, that pretty much sums it up.

[newbee]

Ganchrow,
I'm curious as to why that is? Is it because for higher spreads the sample size becomes small or there is large variation based on totals?

[DeluxeLiner]

How come it doesn't work for larger spreads and gives very large odds?

[Ganchrow]

I'm curious as to why that is? Is it because for higher spreads the sample size becomes small or there is large variation based on totals?

It's largely because in the twins interests of expedience and keeping proprietary methods proprietary, I used a flawed methodology that not only ignores the import of totals on the conversion but also assumes that a game with a spread of 11 (for example) has the same probability in ending with a fave MOV of 3 as does a game with a spread of 2½.

[newbee]

Thanks Ganchrow... that expains it.