Newbie analysis (hedging) Thoughts please

**ikast** · 05-15-14, 04:12 AM

I like it but the only way to win in this scenario is to hit the parlay. Have tried splitting the $100 into $25 into separate parlays with one open slot ? Take some with the +point spread and try to hit both sides.

The goal is to get two parlays with the first leg in. Then fill the second leg with opposite outcomes with one taking the ml and one taking the spread.

You get a guaranteed win if you can do this. (Reduced amount win) but you have a chance at winning both bets if the other team covers the spread.

**yak merchant** · 05-15-14, 07:34 AM

Originally posted by swbell

Ok… Ive been sport betting for exactly 3 weeks. Just found this forum and I love it. As well as the "Action."
Ive been betting mostly NBA playoffs with limited success. I am even after 3 weeks.
Ivve put some thought into this tonight and decided to try to put my finance degree from TCU to good use.
I wanted to know if my rational is "rational." I don't had wall the lingo down yet, so forgive me.

Hypothetical Scenario

Bet total $100
Parlay Minnesota -1.5 -150
and
san fran -1.5 +160
to win 333

Then

Take the other side of the bet (Not parlayed) with $50 each team to win $26 and $65 for a total of $91 total winnings.

you only have 4 outcomes.

1. You hit the Parlay and win a total of $233
2 both parlay teams lose and lose a total of $9
3. Either of the parlay teams lose and you're only losses are $35 or $74.

Again… This strategy is for limiting losses. and I would have to use to online sports books.
Thoughts???

Umm either do the math or bust out your excel and figure out how much juice you are paying playing both sides and then write a Monte Carlo macro to figure out what your break even percentage is with that setup then compare it to betting just the parlay and or just the games straight.

There is no volatility component so you can't really treat it like the remedial option trading they taught you in school. Hedging has its place (locking in profit) but you will soon figure out it is about winning percentage and juice. Paying juice on both sides of a game is the fastest way to go broke.

**gui_m_p** · 05-15-14, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by swbell

Ok… Ive been sport betting for exactly 3 weeks. Just found this forum and I love it. As well as the "Action."Ive been betting mostly NBA playoffs with limited success. I am even after 3 weeks.Ivve put some thought into this tonight and decided to try to put my finance degree from TCU to good use.I wanted to know if my rational is "rational." I don't had wall the lingo down yet, so forgive me.Hypothetical Scenario Bet total $100Parlay Minnesota -1.5 -150and san fran -1.5 +160to win 333Then Take the other side of the bet (Not parlayed) with $50 each team to win $26 and $65 for a total of $91 total winnings.you only have 4 outcomes.1. You hit the Parlay and win a total of $2332 both parlay teams lose and lose a total of $93. Either of the parlay teams lose and you're only losses are $35 or $74.Again… This strategy is for limiting losses. and I would have to use to online sports books.Thoughts???

You are paying more juice and reducing your edge (assuming there is one on parlay), don't do it. In resume: only hedge when a bet on the otherside will be a +EV move on its own.

**swbell** · 05-15-14, 05:22 PM

Thanks Fellas

**NunyaBidness** · 05-15-14, 11:56 PM

There is no way to combine -EV bets to create a +EV bet.

If this formulation was somehow +EV (it's not) then it was because one of the underlying bets is +EV, and the other bets are simply costing you money.

**SharpAngles** · 05-16-14, 12:43 AM

If the book allows you to make a bet you better believe they have the best side. Arbitrage among different sites is the only thing I've used to lock a profit but that is harder and harder to do lately. And never try it on the same site because they're not stupid and will usually cancel the winning side to teach you a lesson.

**lamichaeljames** · 06-02-14, 02:16 PM

Originally posted by gui_m_p

You are paying more juice and reducing your edge (assuming there is one on parlay), don't do it. In resume: only hedge when a bet on the otherside will be a +EV move on its own.

I agree with this.