So a friend of mine has been successfully trading in the stock market for a while now and claims to only follow a single indicator. I'm curious what everyone's thoughts are on this as it applies to the sports market. With all the advanced algorithms, black-box modeling, and simulations that apply today, is it even possible to follow a single indicator or trend and "beat the market"? Does anyone successfully do this (not asking to disclose what your indicator or trend is obviously)?
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Its not really fair to compare the stock market to sportsbetting...but if it is possible in the stock market, it will be possible in a similar moving market on betfair/matchbook
The question is how complex is this indicator that he uses and what kind of trading does he do?Comment -
Nobody successfully follows one single indicator in trading. You need other factors to confirm.
In my forex trading, I use a confluence of six different indicators to enter a trade.Comment -
If a sports trend lasts a significant length of time, the sportsbooks will eventually figure it out and adjust for it. And it's usually the same time you figure it out that they make the adjustment.Comment -
Very interesting question, I believe there are single indicators that lead to +EV. As to how often they come allong, that's another matter.Comment -
Yes, but the key thing to understand here is nature.
A winning trend (say, for example, a 9-0 ATS run) will run into a book's/linesmaker's adjustment, but the forces of nature will also eventually work against that trend. I consider it analogous to the duration of a motorcycle fart. Here's why:
From a published article from a grad student at Stanford:
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What makes a motorcycle fart? Is it the flapping and reverberation of the ass cheeks? Or is it the quick and repetitive flapping and reverberation of the anus lips? It is the anus lips. Now, the muscles of the anus lips will fatigue like any other muscles in the human body. This is why if you count the seconds of your best motorcycle fart, you will invariably max out at a 8 or 9 second fart. It simply cannot be sustained thereafter.**
**Please note: The tranny world record for a motorcycle fart is actualy 14.27 seconds. But our analysts have determined that trannies, like a space shuttle which harnesses the power of multiple energy sources for lift off, are simply combining their motorcycle fart with a secondary fart and manipulating that energy to extend the original motorcycle fart. We have forwarded our research onto the Guinness Book of World Records and except the adjustment to be made. This is similar to wind-aided times in the areas of sprinting.Why trannies have this ability is beyond the scope of this publication, but we would forward any such further questions to experts in the fields of trannies such as Sterling and Murphy.
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**expect
Often times in any discussions involving trannies the words 'except' and 'expect' can be used interchangeably. This was not one of those instances.Comment -
Talk about way off topic it's like Shia Labeouf talking about blowing glass on his d!ck. Either our society is just a little obsessed with sex lifes or these females are the root of the problem. I'm willing to put money on the root.Comment -
So what indicator does your friend use to beat the market?
I agree with the others that it is possible but a) it won't have enough action and b) if it does, lines will be adjustedComment -
He probably means the futures charts, I guess you can call it an indicator. Most of individual stocks will follow the futures (S&P500) direction. So if you see a stock trending upwards, for instance, wait for the futures to start moving up, the stock is most likely to follow. Futures is called a leading indicator for the stock market.
Boom, nailed it.Comment
