Need some help with this math

[crinkledaces]

OK based on these percentages from prior games I was wondering if my math is correct for finding the plus ev threshold on run line bets.





Percentage of games which producethe following Result . . . . . HOME FAVORITES ROAD FAVORITES----------------------------------- -------------- --------------Win by 2 Runs or More 39.1 % 43.6 %Win by Exactly 1 Run 18.4 % 11.6 %Lose by Exactly 1 Run 11.0 % 16.4 %Lose by 2 Runs or More 31.5 % 28.5 %
In my calculations

Home favs on the run line need to be priced at +156 or better for plus ev
road favs on the run line need to be priced at +130 or better for plus ev
road reverse run line dogs need to be priced at +219 or better for plus ev
home reverse run line dogs need to be priced at +251 or better for plus ev

Please let me know if i'm missing something here thanks in advance

[crinkledaces]

sorry for the off centered stats tried to copy and paste... Epic Fail


Percentage of games which produce
the following Result . . . . . HOME FAVORITES ROAD FAVORITES
----------------------------------- -------------- --------------
Win by 2 Runs or More 39.1 % 43.6 %


Win by Exactly 1 Run 18.4 % 11.6 %


Lose by Exactly 1 Run 11.0 % 16.4 %


Lose by 2 Runs or More 31.5 % 28.5 %

[u21c3f6]

While your math may be correct, your analysis is faulty. You cannot use average odds in this fashion.

Joe.

[crinkledaces]

Im just trying to figure out when im starting to pay juice in a sense on the dog. i know im not gonna break even betting every 156 or bettting home fav on the runline. But im looking for a starting point

[statnerds]

Joe's point, i think, is you can't use the totality of the data. you need some sort of defining criteria to separate and analyze. i don't care what it is, faves of 101 to 120. faves of 121 to 140. the prices are going to be different because the results are going to be different. so pull all of those together and see if there is a distinction in results according to ML. or just save yourself tons of time and assume the Market has already consider this data and every price is damn near correct.

once you have cleared that hurdle of acceptance, you can go out there and find a calculator that already converts all ML into corresponding RL.

prob wasn't wanted you wanted to hear, but it is the truth and should save you some time.

[crinkledaces]

No no thanks u for the info. Im just trying to learn a few different angles at the moment.

[inrenokid]

No the +156 is breakeven not +ev, with those figures. To have positive expectation the line has to pay more then the real prob.

[Jason Jones]

No the +156 is breakeven not +ev, with those figures. To have positive expectation the line has to pay more then the real prob.

Exactly

[lamichaeljames]

Exactly

yes sirrieeeee

[BetBase6]

No the +156 is breakeven not +ev, with those figures. To have positive expectation the line has to pay more then the real prob.

Problem solver.