Pinnacle is widely considered to be a sharp book with lines that are in general tough to bet. So if I were to have a model that comes out with a moneyline and over/under line that the majority of the time is very close to the line at pinnacle and in the few games (50ish) where the lines haved differed have thus far been profitable bets would this be a positive indication? Since 50 bets in and of itself means nothing.
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The Pinny lean is in the juice. If you look at over/under lines that open at -112 or higher (towards -115), that's the side they don't want you to take. If the total moves and closes in the direction of the lean, and the juice doesn't come down too much (where they want you to take the other side), you're on their side of the bet. But be careful. Don't expect Pinny to over-advertise their lean. They may play around with it to avoid that everybody recognizes it. They're very sharp, but may play games within games. They could make a million with the Pinny lean, then decide to switch it and give back some of that money.Last edited by Dark Horse; 02-12-09, 02:19 PM.Comment -
Something I had success with in football was to look at each Quarter line and the 2 Half line at Pinnacle and try to find an arb between Pinnacle and a square book, then take the square book side of the arb. This was pretty profitable. Only did it part of one football season, so I'm not sure if that was an aberration or not.Comment -
This is something Ive tried too but I have had less luck. I do not know if it is because the linemoves I have played with have been unsharp or if it is just bad luck, someone may wanna help me here.
All these bets are mostly NBA(Handicap, total, quater) but also some NFL(handicap, total) and CB(handicap) and I only take them if pinny would offer me a bet where if I bet both sides I will have 100% return. (pinny offers -7 +112 and square book offers +7 @ -110, then I bet +7 at square book).
These are my stats:
Units are a spread of about 125$-225$ (150$ being default) depending on how good odds pinny offer at the given line.Code:Pinnacle based valuebets Plays 415 Rollover 62823$ Hitrate% 52.8% ROI 98.2% Net -1146$
Why does this fail for me?
Here are my brothers stats as well, he has used similar methology as me and has had bad luck also:
Code:Pinnacle based valuebets (more stats) Plays 543 Rollover 64451$ Hitrate% 49.9% ROI 94.1% Net -3824$
Last edited by Ominous; 02-14-09, 04:45 PM.Comment -
Ominous, how far away from game time do those opportunities appear? If you were to compare the odds you got with the closing lines, do you usually beat the closing lines? I think the answer to the second question may be useful in figuring this out.Comment -
The oppertunities present themselves throughout the day before the game mostly. Depends on when I look. There is usually more oppertunities within 2 hours of the gametime and I think that maybe ~~50% of my bets were placed within 2 hours of gametime.Ominous, how far away from game time do those opportunities appear? If you were to compare the odds you got with the closing lines, do you usually beat the closing lines? I think the answer to the second question may be useful in figuring this out.
I have done no full survey to see if I actually beat the closing lines but I do believe that this is the case. My experience is that the times I look at the closing line I do beat it, sometimes with a shitload but most oftenly with about the same odds I got when I placed the bet. Ofc there are occations when the line moves back. However I have not kept statistics of this.Comment -
Ominous is taking a 1-sided arb. For this to be a poor strategy, the bets he is declining or unable to make at Pinnacle would have to have positive equity greater than the total value of the full arb. Given the nature of the books involved, it would seem highly unlikely that it would work that way. Given the sample sizes involved I would presume that you have simply been unlucky, but no one would blame you for simply taking the full arb for a while.Comment -
Yeah, well it is hard to make sense of it. Could be bad luck I guess, like Ive said I have been betting down to -110 when pinny offers +110 so thats basically 100% return at that given moment =~~ 2% EV on my bet if pinny line is true, so the margin is not great.
The only other thing that I can think of right now that my bets have in common is that I always play with the linemove. A pausible hypothesis to why the value is less than it seems would be that the linemoves are on avarage overdone and that the correct(true) line is between the closing line and the opening line.
If this was true then it could explain the bad statistics. What do you think?Comment -
Hi, newbie here and I'm trying to figure out what your talking about. Whats a ARB??? And if i got this right>
All these bets are mostly NBA(Handicap, total, quater) but also some NFL(handicap, total) and CB(handicap) and I only take them if pinny would offer me a bet where if I bet both sides I will have 100% return. (pinny offers -7 +112 and square book offers +7 @ -110, then I bet +7 at square book).
-so you bet a 100 to win 112 at one book
-and bet 110 to win 100 at another book????????? forgive me for my ignorance.
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You have probably been unlucky but it could also be that the value is in the side you are not taking. The solution is simple, take both sides. If both sides had equal value, the long term results would be the same whether you take one side or both. But why set yourself up for the results that you have just experienced? In addition, by taking both sides, you can increase the amount wagered.
Using your numbers, if I use your max bet of $225 for one side (which I assume could also be higher if you take both sides), by playing both sides your results should have been 415 wins @ $1.93 profit (regardless of who wins) for a total profit of $800.95 instead of your loss of $1,146. Your brother should have a profit of 543 wins @ $1.93 for a total profit of $1,047.99 instead of his loss of $3,824.
The per wager is as follows: -110, 225 to win 204.55 and +112, 202.62 to win 226.93
Joe.Comment -
Yeah I guess... but like ive said before many of those plays are at -110 when pinnacle offers +110. That would yield no profit.
The original line of thought was that pinnacle is sharper than the square books and that if pinnacle offers -120/+110 there would be value in taking -110 at a square book. This is what I am starting to question - while I would not call square books sharp, possible explainations may be lie with the nature of line moves in general or such.Comment -
I'd rather use the average of Pinny, CRIS and Greek's lines as a measuring stick. Pinny is sharp, but I don't think they're such a definitive indicator day in and day out, especially since they left the U.S. market.Comment -
Jaug, I just don't think that any one book is. I prefer to combine Pinny/CRIS/Greek and compute the average to get a solid "sharp" number, then I start shopping around for off numbers.Comment
