Capping Ideas/Strategies (College Basketball)

**donjuan** · 01-26-09, 04:44 AM

So you cherry picked an absurdly small sample size and showed a complete misunderstanding of HCA in the same post. Well done, mon frere. Well done.

**Jaug** · 01-26-09, 06:39 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

Lets take a look at a few select games from the past games.

1. Florida (-1) at Vanderbilt

Memorial Gym is a very unique place and is also very difficult to win in for opposing teams. Vandy has been near unbeatable there the past couple years. Florida is the more talanted team, I doubt even Vandy fans would argue that statement. I like to call these games "Location Games". The theory is that the venue will change the game. The problem with this theory is that the teams aren't really that close in terms of talent.

2. Michigan State (-2.5) at Ohio State

Another fishy line in which the home team is getting a lot of credit from linemakers. Michigan State is the class of the Big 10 and Ohio State has struggled mightily after losing one of its stars in David Lighty. I can vouch for this line to a certain extent because winning road games in the Big 10 is near impossible for some reason. Once again, I'm pretty sure most agree Michigan State is the more talented team.

3. Louisville (+1) at Syracuse

Not really a great game to use because the talent level between these two teams are very similar IMO. Still, Louisville is probably more talented on paper and is the team getting points. The Carrier Dome is also a VERY tough place to win for opposing teams. I'm not going to say anything else except another tight game resulted in the road team winning.

4. Richmond (+2) at Saint Louis

I still can't believe I didnt pull the trigger on this game. Richmond is a formidable team that has played tough competition all year. Saint Louis is very good at home, but probably not a better team than Richmond. Basically, another game where the better team is the dog because of LOCATION.

5. Pittsburgh (+1) at West Virginia

Pitt has been considered the class of the Big East for most of the year and now they are a slight dog to West Virginia? Pitt posseses veteran players that understand how to win big games on the road. West Virginia has quite a few young players that are called upon in big situations. What would this line be on a neutral court?

6. Northern Iowa (+1.5) at Missouri State

Northern Iowa had been red hot coming into this game and Missouri State had been experiencing a down year compared to the past 2 years when they were major players in the MVC. Nobody can tell me that Missouri State is a better team than Northern Iowa on a neutral court. Once again, the better team wins the game.

POINT: All 6 road teams won straight up and the closest margin of victory was NINE POINTS! I'm not advocating to take every road team because that would be pointless. What I'm saying is that, in closely lined games (3 or less points either way) the road team USUALLY posseses more talent because linemakers factor in a "home court advantage". The problem is that some teams have NO home court advantage, some teams have the ability to step up on the road, and some teams are just far and away more talented than the home team.

You actually almost put up all the games I was betting yesterday. Florida, michigan state, pittsburgh and northern iowa were all huge public consensus picks. Still the line on these games stood still or in some cases even went the other way. I.e. Pittsburgh was +1.5 -105 gametime at pinny.

A bad day for big money or bookies, don't know which one.

**LT Profits** · 01-26-09, 07:58 AM

While it is true that the road team is virtually always better if the home team is favored by less than 3 points, that has not translated to ATS success.

Home Favorites of -2.5 or less are 1319-1316-45, 50.1% ATS since 2000

**Arilou** · 01-26-09, 08:49 AM

If you think you're on to something, and 6 games proves nothing for obvious reasons even without backdating, your first step is to be far more exact about exactly what element you're looking at. Small home favorites, as LT points out, aren't going to be it, although you're clearly looking for something else.

**TPowell** · 01-26-09, 01:38 PM

Originally posted by donjuan

So you cherry picked an absurdly small sample size and showed a complete misunderstanding of HCA in the same post. Well done, mon frere. Well done.

how about you read everything first pal

**TPowell** · 01-26-09, 01:47 PM

the point is that you still have to cap the game. If you like the home team in games like the ones above because you think they have more talent, you're probably missing something.

**donjuan** · 01-26-09, 05:30 PM

how about you read everything first pal

I was in the mood for a little unintentional comedy so I did indeed read everything. 45 seconds I will never get back.

**TPowell** · 01-26-09, 05:34 PM

anybody notice this cock fuk always comes to post negative shit? Seriously, whats the point of you even being here?

**donjuan** · 01-26-09, 06:59 PM

Did you really think that post deserved anything more than scorn and derision?

**hajune** · 01-26-09, 10:08 PM

Mr Powell what you have said is classic good handicapping. I enjoy your insight. I have a hard time with some of the negative responses that you get. You give out great games and they get on your case about your insights . Wow!. It tells me that they are LOSERS and are frustrated
If I ever talk to you outside the post I will tell you the REAL reason why you should not bet against Richmond at home especially when they are a dog. It has nothing to do with handicapping and has gone on for years.

**Peep** · 01-26-09, 10:17 PM

Your handicapping might be a little more impressive if you picked games going forward hajane.

I can go six for six picking yesterday's game, and give a good reason for each selection.

That and $3.00 buys me a cheap Starbucks......

**TPowell** · 01-26-09, 10:45 PM

I understand about the cherry picked games, I was too lazy to look up past games. The point is that you have to cap the game and remember that the road team should ALWAYS be the better team. If not, thats when you have to wonder

**curious** · 01-26-09, 11:36 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

I understand about the cherry picked games, I was too lazy to look up past games. The point is that you have to cap the game and remember that the road team should ALWAYS be the better team. If not, thats when you have to wonder

I have noticed this too, that home team lines are inflated. Every day my value model gives lines for home teams that are off from what the lines makers set.

HOWEVER, you have to look at the matchup of the teams to make sure that the visitor isn't so outclassed that it doesn't matter what the home team line is. The home team is still going to win.

So, this inflated home team line can only be used as a guide to seek where the real value might lie. THAT is handicapping. I'm still trying to figure out how to do that part.