People have been asking me how that CFB D/O did last year

[Peregrine Stoop]

what were the week 1 plays?

[C.S.]

unlv
miss st
akron
kent
san jose st
buff
ul monroe
fau
ul lafay

[Peregrine Stoop]

UNLV - Wisconsin : Favorite/Over 1H
Memphis - MsSt : Favorite/Over 1H
Akron - Ohio St : Favorite/Under 1H
Kent St - Bama : Favorite/Under 1H (though line shopping could have brought the total to a push)
ULM - FSU: Push/Under 1H (I don't have the best 1H scrapping, so perhaps the dog side could have won this with line shopping ???)
SJST - Stanford : Favorite/Over 1H
Buffalo - Pitt : Dog/Under 1H
ULL - OkSt : Favorite/Over 1H
FAU - Florida: Favorite/Over 1H

Wow... brutal week 1 to start this time. Favorites' revenge up in here.

[donjuan]

Yep, but the point of this isn't really to line shop it's that this is allegedly a market inefficiency.

[Peregrine Stoop]

Yep, but the point of this isn't really to line shop it's that this is allegedly a market inefficiency.

There is no sportsbetting that isn't about line shopping. If something has been covering 53% v closing lines, getting a worse line will take away all edge.

[Peregrine Stoop]

Week 2 is
New Mexico
FAU

right?

[C.S.]

think you missed fresno st. might have been just outside the range so I could be wrong.

[Bill the cop]

Week 2 is
New Mexico
FAU

right?

3 games yesterday:

379 FlD Atl, F/O

365 N.Mex, F/O

355 Fresno, D/O

[Peregrine Stoop]

think you missed fresno st. might have been just outside the range so I could be wrong.

yep, it was.
I posted way before kickoffs, so I hope no one thinks I was undercutting BTC by missing the one that came through D/O.

Slight recovery in week 2.

[Inkwell77]

North Texas +28 and the over 32pts is definitely a play today.

[Wrecktangle]

So here we have BTC posting a system (against the "Tank rules" according to Justin7's ever present Tank leading thread) about a "market inefficient" angle, in a seeming attempt to ingratiate himself to a bunch of arrogant pseudo-stat haters. Justin7 not only lets post stand but backs BTC vs. haters. Then BTC reveals that few plays are generated.

The irony is stupefying.

[Peregrine Stoop]

isn't it though?

[Peregrine Stoop]

though, technically, the linked thread from last year hinted at the pricing of these things and when one should pass, so not a pure system

[Peregrine Stoop]

Week 3 is
Akron
Idaho
ULM
N Texas

[Peregrine Stoop]

North Texas +28 and the over 32pts is definitely a play today.

you should get +28.5 ... big difference

[wantitall4moi]

Yep, but the point of this isn't really to line shop it's that this is allegedly a market inefficiency.

I thought you guys in here were smart? If the 'market' isnt efficient then how can line shopping be a bad thing? If anything once the saps bet into bad lines and make them worse line shopping is even more valuable in an inefficient 'market' than it would be in a solid one.

I guess brains and common sense dont go hand in hand.

[tomcowley]

I guess reading comprehension and the SN wantitall4moi don't go hand in hand either. Nobody's saying not to lineshop actual bets, they're saying that if the market is as inefficient as BtD claims, it should win vs. WA numbers.

[CHUBNUT]

the reason you lot have trouble winning is your brains are addled by so many theories and you've got so deep you dont know which ones to trust anymore. Take a week off to relax, clear your head and get back to basics. Forget all this BTCL, points buying, public money shit and just use your brains to read between the lines on a game. Make a decision on a game, get the best odds/line/vig going unless it looks like its going to drift and evaluate after each event.

After a certain amount of time if you find you cant make a profit then treat your gambling more as a hobby because there's certainly nothing on here to improve it down the line.

[Peregrine Stoop]

the reason you lot have trouble winning is your brains are addled by so many theories and you've got so deep you dont know which ones to trust anymore. Take a week off to relax, clear your head and get back to basics. Forget all this BTCL, points buying, public money shit and just use your brains to read between the lines on a game. Make a decision on a game, get the best odds/line/vig going unless it looks like its going to drift and evaluate after each event. After a certain amount of time if you find you cant make a profit then treat your gambling more as a hobby because there's certainly nothing on here to improve it down the line.

this is almost the exact opposite of everything I would say except get the best odds/line/vig

[wantitall4moi]

I guess reading comprehension and the SN wantitall4moi don't go hand in hand either. Nobody's saying not to lineshop actual bets, they're saying that if the market is as inefficient as BtD claims, it should win vs. WA numbers.

I thought he showed it did, but was basically shouted down by the masses in here.

basically line shopping or in a more correct term, getting the best number ever available will mean a 3-4% advantage over what people like to call widely available. Since 99% of the guys in here and out there FOLLOW then that means not many if any will ever get the very best available number. So they automatically lose a small percentage of any advantage they think they have.

But I would think that if Bill ran a check on his results he would find that his results will be 3 or 4% better/worse than he shows depending on how his number compares to best posted.

I would also say that if people took a personal accoutning of every bet they have ever made and compared it to the best posted number available they would also see the same deviation. So if they always got the worst number they would see a 3-4% difference in results. So if they were 52% then had they got the best number they would be 55-56%. So from a loser to a superstar just by getting the best possible number.

Now the real question is is the market inefficient because it has such a wide gap in the results or is it really efficient to be close enough that many times to make that much of a difference? In other words 3-4% of all games across the NFL, NBA, NCAA hoops and football are going to be lined close enough to the final result that a line move will effect who wins and who loses.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

So here we have BTC posting a system (against the "Tank rules" according to Justin7's ever present Tank leading thread) about a "market inefficient" angle, in a seeming attempt to ingratiate himself to a bunch of arrogant pseudo-stat haters. Justin7 not only lets post stand but backs BTC vs. haters. Then BTC reveals that few plays are generated.

The irony is stupefying.

Wreck:

What's up, old man?

[Peregrine Stoop]

Week 3 is Akron Idaho ULM N Texas

what were the results?

[Wrecktangle]

Wreck:

What's up, old man?

Hey Chucky! Wow, haven't talked in a while. How are things going? Lemme shoot you an e-mail.

[Patrick McIrish]

It certainly would have to be considered a system but glad they make exceptions when BTC is in the house. Don't always agree with his message but usually provokes good conversation.