30 point dogs are good plays perfect this year

[andywend]

That is because you have no way of calculating a fair value, so you assume that laying big odds has to be "a bad risk". If you cannot calculate fair value then you cannot determine if the risk/reward of any line is appealing or not.

When someone lays big odds it means they see value in the line. They don't "deserve" to lose that bet any more than you "deserve" to lose the +30 line someone else took at -110.

I'm not commenting on this to talk trash to you. I post over 20 picks every day in NBA, NCAAB, and NHL and I routinely take big favs on the money line and I get comments like this all the time and it just irks me a little.

<end rant>

Laying almost 300-1 on the sun ever shining in the sky again would NOT be appealing to me let alone laying those kind of odds on a team like Mount St. Mary's with a losing record.

I don't believe that bettor saw any value in that line when he placed his wager. He simply was betting on something that looked like a sure thing to him.

As far as my comment that he "deserved to lose", I already posted an apology as it was uncalled for on my part.

Curious, your strategy of laying massive odds on huge favorites on the money line is a LOSING strategy long term due to the tremendous "vig" taken on those games. If you are betting these huge favorites on the moneyline at an exchange, then that would be a different story.

[curious]

Laying almost 300-1 on the sun ever shining in the sky again would NOT be appealing to me let alone laying those kind of odds on a team like Mount St. Mary's with a losing record.

I don't believe that bettor saw any value in that line when he placed his wager. He simply was betting on something that looked like a sure thing to him.

As far as my comment that he "deserved to lose", I already posted an apology as it was uncalled for on my part.

Curious, your strategy of laying massive odds on huge favorites on the money line is a LOSING strategy long term due to the tremendous "vig" taken on those games. If you are betting these huge favorites on the moneyline at an exchange, then that would be a different story.

Actually I am up tons. I only take moneylines that have a + EV, so I am not paying vig.

[donjuan]

Laying almost 300-1 on the sun ever shining in the sky again would NOT be appealing to me let alone laying those kind of odds on a team like Mount St. Mary's with a losing record.

I advise betting 1/100000000000000000000 Kelly which in your case still is the same a full Kelly: 0.

[LT Profits]

Laying almost 300-1 on the sun ever shining in the sky again would NOT be appealing to me let alone laying those kind of odds on a team like Mount St. Mary's with a losing record.

The team was St. Mary's, a club that is currently 16-1 and ranked 56th in the Pomeroy Ratings, the second highest ranked WCC team behind Gonzaga.

[andywend]

"Actually I am up tons. I only take moneylines that have a + EV, so I am not paying vig."

If you are betting heavy favorites on the moneyline at a regular sportsbook, you are paying massive vig and the chances are extremely strong that your bets have negative EV.

Your flaw is in the calculations you are using to come up with what you perceive fair value to be on these wagers.

The only thing I believe you have going for you by adopting this strategy is that I would suspect most outlets skew the moneyline on huge favorites under the belief that bettors are far more likely to back the underdog at huge odds as opposed to laying huge odds on the favorite.

Most people are successful at fooling themselves into thinking they can consistently win betting sports without doing the proper research based on some flawed angle and that appears to be the case here as well.

I used to spend tons of time researching and I was able to grind out small long term profits betting the traditional way before the games start. However, I realized how much easier it is to make money betting games live after they start where the ability to calculate fair value quickly based on constantly changing variables is a skill that leads to far greater, more consistent profits.

[durito]

Curious, your strategy of laying massive odds on huge favorites on the money line is a LOSING strategy long term due to the tremendous "vig" taken on those games. If you are betting these huge favorites on the moneyline at an exchange, then that would be a different story.

The "vig" on large money lines is less than the vig at -110/-110 at virtually every sportsbook in the world.

[Bullajami]

I comprehend the arithmetic reasoning of betting a 300-1 favorite when the actual value is really 400 -1. Just like I get the arithmetic reasoning behind betting on a lotto with 100,000,000 - 1 chance of winning when the jackpot is $200,000,000 (no fanatically anal math corrections or implications needed). Most of us still wouldn't bet a full Kelly on lotto tickets.

Hopefully the Kelly Desciples can also see the comedy that betting $1100 to win $4 on a college basketball game offers up to most of the masses reading here. I think we have got a little "Player's Talk" fodder mixed into this Think Tank thread.

How would Stanford Wong's "Min Win" theory of bankroll management fit into this scenario if the bettor's min win is $4?

[rm18]

I think it was a good bet, if my bankroll was a million I would probably risk over a 100k on St. Mary's ML or Eagles +42.5 tomorrow.

[reno cool]

The "vig" on large money lines is less than the vig at -110/-110 at virtually every sportsbook in the world.

If you have a huge fav the vig has to be small because the prob of him winning is so high he takes up all the money. If the - side is -10000 it already takes up 99% of the payback so the vig can't be more than 1% even if the + side doesn't exist.

Now lets say the line is +500/-10000 and the fav has only a 90% chance of winning. Both bets are very bad but the vig is less than 1%. Correct?

[durito]

If you have a huge fav the vig has to be small because the prob of him winning is so high he takes up all the money. If the - side is -10000 it already takes up 99% of the payback so the vig can't be more than 1% even if the + side doesn't exist.

Now lets say the line is +500/-10000 and the fav has only a 90% chance of winning. Both bets are very bad but the vig is less than 1%. Correct?

huh?

no, the hold on 500/-10,000 is 13.55%

[Peep]

I think it was a good bet, if my bankroll was a million I would probably risk over a 100k on St. Mary's ML or Eagles +42.5 tomorrow.

Yep, and I am going to keep betting $10 on 250-1 ML college hoop doggies when I see them.

"Horses for courses".

[reno cool]

huh?

no, the hold on 500/-10,000 is 13.55%

show me how you get this #, I must have confused something. But anyway, since the amount you risk counts towards your payback, the hold can be pretty small % wise, while giving almost no chance to win.

[reno cool]

actually I see what you did. In fact use this calculation regularly.

1/6= .1667
100/101=.99009

1/sum =.8644 for 13.55 hold.

I should have said if something has a 99% chance of winning it can't have a vig of more than 1% even if the payout is-1million. But a bet with such a payout structure would seem much worse to a gambler then a 10% vig on a 8-1 shot, because the former gives no chance of winning even in the short term.

However, I will admit this may be subjective.

[hajune]

Loyola Mary is a 30 point 30 1/2 dog tonight against St Mary's.
All 30 point dogs have covered this year. St Mary's is not good with the big numbers.

I always love the people who contradict the facts. Somebody responded and posted that 30 point dogs were 3-5 this year. First of all I doubt they spent time to go back on games to see if that was true. They offered NO proof. Bookies love idiots so they will love him.
This year's games . I use Covers. com for back games and spreads
Duke Pres +35 win
UCLA Pra AM +37 win
N CAR Penn +32 win
B Y N Fla +35 1/2 win
Duke Mont win
UCLA LO Mar win
N C Evans win
ST M Lo Mar win
If anybody finds any other games using that web site ,tell me.

[durito]

I always love the people who contradict the facts. Somebody responded and posted that 30 point dogs were 3-5 this year. First of all I doubt they spent time to go back on games to see if that was true. They offered NO proof. Bookies love idiots so they will love him.
.

That's several rather bold assumptions you make considering my numbers were confirmed by other posters. The time to search my database to come up with those figures takes less than 1 second.

12/17/2008 0545 Loyola Marymount 33 UCLA 44-75 W
11/15/2008 0519 Pennsylvania 32.5 North Carolina 71-86 W
12/28/2008 0543 Rutgers 32 North Carolina 75-97 W
12/31/2008 0767 Loyola Maryland 32 Duke 51-92 L
11/17/2008 0539 Miss Valley State 31.5 Oklahoma 53-94 L
11/16/2008 0729 Idaho 30 Michigan State 62-100 L
11/22/2008 0771 Morehead State 30 Louisville 41-79 L
12/23/2008 0533 Florida International 30 Georgetown 38-76 L
1/15/2009 0547 Loyola Marymount 30 St Marys California W 53-78
11/24/2008 0735 North Carolina -31 Chaminade 115 70 L


I do seem to be missing tbe Duke/Pres game, the Duke/Montana game and the UCLA/Praire View.

[LT Profits]

I always love the people who contradict the facts. Somebody responded and posted that 30 point dogs were 3-5 this year. First of all I doubt they spent time to go back on games to see if that was true. They offered NO proof. Bookies love idiots so they will love him.
This year's games . I use Covers. com for back games and spreads
Duke Pres +35 win
UCLA Pra AM +37 win
N CAR Penn +32 win
B Y N Fla +35 1/2 win
Duke Mont win
UCLA LO Mar win
N C Evans win
ST M Lo Mar win
If anybody finds any other games using that web site ,tell me.

Look at post #18. I listed games since 2000 and you will see 5 losers this season at the time of my post.

[LT Profits]

That's several rather bold assumptions you make considering my numbers were confirmed by other posters. The time to search my database to come up with those figures takes less than 1 second.

12/17/2008 0545 Loyola Marymount 33 UCLA 44-75 W
11/15/2008 0519 Pennsylvania 32.5 North Carolina 71-86 W
12/28/2008 0543 Rutgers 32 North Carolina 75-97 W
12/31/2008 0767 Loyola Maryland 32 Duke 51-92 L
11/17/2008 0539 Miss Valley State 31.5 Oklahoma 53-94 L
11/16/2008 0729 Idaho 30 Michigan State 62-100 L
11/22/2008 0771 Morehead State 30 Louisville 41-79 L
12/23/2008 0533 Florida International 30 Georgetown 38-76 L
1/15/2009 0547 Loyola Marymount 30 St Marys California W 53-78
11/24/2008 0735 North Carolina -31 Chaminade 115 70 L


I do seem to be missing tbe Duke/Pres game, the Duke/Montana game and the UCLA/Praire View.

That's because Presbeterian and Prarie View A&M (as well as North Florida for that matter) are non-board teams and you probably have Duke -29 over Montana like I do.

[bettilimbroke999]

Wager has been accepted!
this is the play tonight boys

Ticket Number: 28102524


Wager type : Straight Bet

Sport : Reduced Basketball (Reduced Juice - Internet Only)
Selection : Saint Mary's CA 1/15/2009 9:00 PM - (EST)
Money Line -29000 for Game
Amount : Risking 1,160.00 To Win 4.00 USD

Nice hit