Determining "daily edge"

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  • Wayfarer
    SBR High Roller
    • 01-06-09
    • 134

    #1
    Determining "daily edge"
    Let's say you bet 2 games.

    Game A you beat the closing number by 10 cents
    Game B you the closing number beats you by 6 cents

    Overall you have beaten the closing lines by 4 cents.

    Assuming that both markets are equally efficient is this a reasonable way to determine whether or not you have an overall edge on your wagers for the day?
  • xyz
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 02-14-08
    • 521

    #2
    One thing you need to consider are the actual odds you are beating. Beating a -500 by 6 cents is very different from beating a -110 by 6 cents.
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    • Wayfarer
      SBR High Roller
      • 01-06-09
      • 134

      #3
      Very true. The percentage you beat(or lost) the line by would then be a potentially more useful indicator?
      Comment
      • Data
        SBR MVP
        • 11-27-07
        • 2236

        #4
        Without accounting for the stakes sizes you cannot assess your perceived edge. I think the better approach is to calculate the change of your position worth using the same spreadsheet I referred you to in another thread:
        Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.
        Last edited by Data; 01-08-09, 01:12 PM. Reason: wording
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        • Wayfarer
          SBR High Roller
          • 01-06-09
          • 134

          #5
          Thank you Data, very useful info there.
          Comment
          • Data
            SBR MVP
            • 11-27-07
            • 2236

            #6
            You're welcome, sir. Actually, you do not need the spreadsheet for this. You can just price your position to market. The spreadsheet is invaluable nonetheless, it perfectly illustrates that the size of your position is essential.
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