Calculating your own baseball moneylines

[WetWorks]

Can anyone point me in the right direction to a book or a guide on making baseball lines. I'm always hearing how "sharp" bettors compare their lines to Vegas's lines. If they have the Red Sox at -140,but Vegas has them at - 160, there's value there. But how do you come up with your own lines? For example....


I assume that it starts out at with
Team A at -100
Team B at +100
Before the juice is added of course. Then does team A get bumped to -120 because they are at home? Then team B gets and extra +15 points taking them to +115 cause they have been on a 3 game loosing streak? Add in pitching, rankings, batting, ect. If someone could point me in the right direction I'd be forever in your debt. Thanks!

[Carl-Haakon]

There's no single right way to do it. You're asking a question that most of the people on this subforum have spent months if not days years to try to answer. And if someone had a right answer, they probably wouldn't tell you.

Also, my understanding of american odds isn't the best, but if you price a line at -140 and the books price it at -160, I don't think there's much value there. Maybe on the other side of that bet, but not on that particular line (why would you want to pay more than the fair value?)

EDIT: I don't know much about baseball, but you could look up Fixed Odds Sports Betting by Buchdal, Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting by King Yao, Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong and Justin7/Daringly's Conquering Risk. There are probably more baseball-oriented stuff out there, though

[hutennis]

If they have the Red Sox at -140,but Vegas has them at - 160, there's value there.

Value? where?
If you think something worth 140 bucks, what value would you find in paying 160 for it?

[Nick@SI]

Trading bases by Joe Peta is also a good one.