Better Teaser?

[_Stat_]

3 Team +180.5
Team X +8.5
Team Y +8.5
Team z +8.5

VS.

3 Team +180
Team X +9
Team Y +8.5
Team Z +8.5

Better to get a 1/2 point on 1 leg of 3 teamer at non 3/7 numbers. Or get a half cent on the whole teaser?

[Justin7]

3 Team +180.5
Team X +8.5
Team Y +8.5
Team z +8.5

VS.

3 Team +180
Team X +9
Team Y +8.5
Team Z +8.5

Better to get a 1/2 point on 1 leg of 3 teamer at non 3/7 numbers. Or get a half cent on the whole teaser?

I'll assume this is in NFL. How often does the "9" push in NFL? Also, what does your teaser reduce to if you go 2-0-1? +100 or -110? What is your assumed win rate teasing a dog from +2.5 to +8.5?

Once you answer these 3 questions, you can evaluate the EV for each wager. I suspect you're better off taking +9, instead of +8.5... But don't listen to me, do the math!

[Ganchrow]

Let p = win probability at +8.5
Let q = push probability on +9

Assuming a 2-0-1 reduced to -110 and that the +280.5 bet were breakeven, for the +280.5 to be the superior bet EV-wise, the following inequality would need to be satisfied:

p³*3.8 + p²*q*21/11 - 1 ≥ p³*3.805-1
q*21/11 ≥ 0.005*11/21
q ≥ p * 11/4200

In general, assuming a 2-0-1 reduced to decimal odds of d and that the +280.5 bet were breakeven, for the +280.5 to be the better bet EV-wise, the following inequality would need to be satisfied:

p³*3.8 + p²*q*d - 1 ≤ p³*3.805-1
q ≥ p/(200*d)

So assuming the +280.5 bet to be breakeven (p ≈ 64.05%):

• If pushes on the +280 reduced to -110, the push probability on the 9 would need to be at least 64.05%*11/4200 ≈ ~0.168% for the +280.5 to be the superior bet.
• If pushes on the +280 reduced to +100, the push probability on the 9 would need to be at least 64.05%/(200*2) ≈ ~0.160% for the +280.5 to be the superior bet.
• If pushes on the +280 marked the entire teaser a push, the push probability on the 9 would need to be at least 64.05%/(200*1)≈ ~0.320% for the +280.5 to be the superior bet.

[Ganchrow]

So given that since the mid-80s, NFL games with spreads of between 1 and 3½ have finished with a fave MOV of exactly 9 with frequency of about 1.576% (σ≈0.257%), you'd probably want to take the +280 and the extra half-point.

I'll add however, that that the more +EV you estimated the +280.5 to be, the greater the risk-neutral hurdle rate for the push prob on the 9.

[_Stat_]

thanks alot.

Ill work on understanding that math.