Ganchrow...How to convert win probability to moneyline and spread in NCAAB?

**donjuan** · 12-09-08, 11:18 PM

Spread depends on the total. Moneyline should be obvious.

**dcbt** · 12-10-08, 09:22 AM

ML would be +/- 216

If SF 68.35% is in cell A1, here's you ML calc in B1: IF(A1>0.5,-(A1/(1-A1))*100,-(-((1-A1)/(A1))*100))

Or, similarly, If Pacific 31.65% is in A2, here's your ML calc in B2: IF(A2>0.5,-(A2/(1-A2))*100,-(-((1-A2)/(A2))*100))

**Arilou** · 12-10-08, 12:18 PM

curious, I would simply go through a series of games on a Saturday or a few other days and look at the ML, spread and total for each game. That should give you enough examples to get a guide to translate MLs into spreads, or vice versa.

**smitch124** · 12-10-08, 01:44 PM

There is also a spread to ML converter in the betting tools section of MySBR

**curious** · 12-10-08, 10:25 PM

Thanks everyone.

**Ganchrow** · 12-11-08, 05:08 AM

You've gotten some fine advice here.

For converting win probabilities to MLs check out the Odds Converter. You can also use the PROB2US() Excel function from my http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...tml#post256487.

As far as the spread to ML converter I can tell you as it's author I'd put little if any stock in its conclusions for all but the smallest of spreads. I'll also point that it completely ignores the impact of totals.

**raiders72002** · 12-13-08, 08:27 AM

Originally posted by Ganchrow

You've gotten some fine advice here.

For converting win probabilities to MLs check out the Odds Converter. You can also use the PROB2US() Excel function from my http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...tml#post256487.

As far as the spread to ML converter I can tell you as it's author I'd put little if any stock in its conclusions for all but the smallest of spreads. I'll also point that it completely ignores the impact of totals.

It's still a great tool and can be used by all. I check it out all the time for comparisons.

**shearer** · 12-13-08, 08:42 AM

How we can use log5 formula in soccer?

**Dfjay9** · 12-15-08, 12:34 PM

Curious, do you think you could post a copy of your spreadsheet?

**curious** · 12-15-08, 10:21 PM

Originally posted by Dfjay9

Curious, do you think you could post a copy of your spreadsheet?

Let me figure out how I can put it on my mySBR page. I didn't forget you I am just VERY busy.

**Astig5150** · 12-30-08, 01:59 AM

What is the true margin of vicrtory? I got this information.

Even DistributionA50.00%Probability of Home Team WinningB58.22%True Average Margin of VictoryC2.43722

Is this confirm? Please let me know. Thanks.

**Thomas_Garber** · 07-17-10, 04:21 PM

Here is a great calculator that will convert moneyline odds into win probability and win probability into moneyline odds. http://www.bettingresource.com/conve...robablity.html

**uva3021** · 07-18-10, 11:32 PM

I made a PHP US Odds Convertor

its buggy but works, i'll clean it up later

**cptbigsack** · 01-21-12, 01:25 AM

Originally posted by Ganchrow

You've gotten some fine advice here.

For converting win probabilities to MLs check out the Odds Converter. You can also use the PROB2US() Excel function from my http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...tml#post256487.

As far as the spread to ML converter I can tell you as it's author I'd put little if any stock in its conclusions for all but the smallest of spreads. I'll also point that it completely ignores the impact of totals.

I noticed you have some excel functions but was wondering if you had the spread moneyline converter for CBB in excel? I am trying to test a formula and my game results have the spread and my formula produces probability. If I had an excel function to convert it would really help. I want to test it against 8 years of data so manually isn't really an option. Any help is appreciated.

Thanks,
Dan

**ManBearPig** · 01-25-12, 03:19 AM

As far as I've seen there isn't a clear cut way to achieve this, but I've used this for this type of thing. It may not give you exactly what you want, but it's all I've come across as I've seen no direct formula. I suppose that if one had all ML and spreads for x games they could attempt to create their own by looking at frequencies and relating them that way.

Point Spread Money Line

-2 -130/+110
-2.5 -140/+120
-3 -155/+135
-3.5 -175/+155
-4 -200/+170
-4.5 -220/+180
-5/-5.5 -240/+190
-6 -270/+210
-6.5 -300/+220
-7 -330/+250
-7.5/-8/-8.5 -360/+280
-9/-9.5 -400/+300
-10 -450/+325

**FourLengthsClear** · 01-25-12, 03:28 AM

Originally posted by ManBearPig

As far as I've seen there isn't a clear cut way to achieve this, but I've used this for this type of thing. It may not give you exactly what you want, but it's all I've come across as I've seen no direct formula. I suppose that if one had all ML and spreads for x games they could attempt to create their own by looking at frequencies and relating them that way.

Point Spread Money Line

-2 -130/+110
-2.5 -140/+120
-3 -155/+135
-3.5 -175/+155
-4 -200/+170
-4.5 -220/+180
-5/-5.5 -240/+190
-6 -270/+210
-6.5 -300/+220
-7 -330/+250
-7.5/-8/-8.5 -360/+280
-9/-9.5 -400/+300
-10 -450/+325

Those would be typical for an 'average' projected total. A 10 point favourite with an expected total of 110 is going to mean a lot more chalk than a 10 point favourite where 150 points is projected.

**subs** · 01-25-12, 05:35 AM

Originally posted by Arilou

curious, I would simply go through a series of games on a Saturday or a few other days and look at the ML, spread and total for each game. That should give you enough examples to get a guide to translate MLs into spreads, or vice versa.

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