Beating the closing line in baseball: How important is it?

[mr.ed]

Skilled handicappers can beat the closing line consistently. Here are two plays that I made just minutes ago. Most likley I'll be able to lock up profits at gametime, but I will let them ride as they are very strong plays.

TORONTO/BOSTON OVER 9 1/2 -115
CINCY/TEXAS OVER 9 1/2 +112

[JuniorAnalyst]

u have to learn how to predict movement. Lets say Verlander and the tigers open at -190 vs the twins. You know that he is a well known pitcher with good stats and a huge public acceptance that he will bring in alot of money especially if its a sunday night game were everyone is watching. if you think detroit is the right side take the opener at -190 because you can predict that the line will move to -200 -210 -220 maybe more if additional information comes up to the public like mauer wont play or the pitcher for twins has a blister but will play through.

same for an underdog if you liked the twins in this game because say cabrera tweaked his hip and fielder is probable with a virus or flu you want to wait for the public and people to get all over detroit and jack the twins price up.

If you say beating the number isnt important your wrong
why lay $170 to win $100 when you can lay $150
and why bet $100 to win $120 when you could win $135

15-20$ is 15%-20% of a unit. if every wager you win u scrape an average of 5-10% extra at the end of the season all these extra amounts add up and can add 5-10units to your bankroll maybe more.

Also if you pay less on losing favourites you will save a few units in the long runs

[hutennis]

u have to learn how to predict movement. Lets say Verlander and the tigers open at -190 vs the twins. You know that he is a well known pitcher with good stats and a huge public acceptance that he will bring in alot of money especially if its a sunday night game were everyone is watching. if you think detroit is the right side take the opener at -190 because you can predict that the line will move to -200 -210 -220 maybe more if additional information comes up to the public like mauer wont play or the pitcher for twins has a blister but will play through.

same for an underdog if you liked the twins in this game because say cabrera tweaked his hip and fielder is probable with a virus or flu you want to wait for the public and people to get all over detroit and jack the twins price up.

If you say beating the number isnt important your wrong
why lay $170 to win $100 when you can lay $150
and why bet $100 to win $120 when you could win $135

15-20$ is 15%-20% of a unit. if every wager you win u scrape an average of 5-10% extra at the end of the season all these extra amounts add up and can add 5-10units to your bankroll maybe more.

Also if you pay less on losing favourites you will save a few units in the long runs

How do you know that this

You know that he is a well known pitcher with good stats and a huge public acceptance that he will bring in a lot of money especially if its a sunday night game were everyone is watching.

is not ALREADY a part in considerations resulted in setting opener shaded to -190?
Is this some secret information unknown to the rest of the world?

Another words, what if fav's odds are already overpriced enough and moving them even farther on public betting only, w/o any legitimate fundamental reasons is not such a good idea b/c it would create +EV (bad exposure) on a dog side?

Those are pretty elementary considerations not to be accounted for, don't you think?

[Nick@SI]

How do you know that this



is not ALREADY a part in considerations resulted in setting opener shaded to -190?
Is this some secret information unknown to the rest of the world?

Another words, what if fav's odds are already overpriced enough and moving them even farther on public betting only, w/o any legitimate fundamental reasons is not such a good idea b/c it would create +EV (bad exposure) on a dog side?

Those are pretty elementary considerations not to be accounted for, don't you think?

I don't want to answer for JuniorA however I assume that's how he meant it. Different ways for different handicappers some use formulas. For instance I use some things I learned from Trading Bases, modified it some and my numbers correlate fairly strong with the closing number. Of course it's not perfect as lineup adjustments and such do effect the outcome. So I have a rather decent idea on each day if a pitcher is being under/over valued. Other people may just use the old feel method. Some may think about how that pitcher is typically priced then of course many people have no clue.

[hutennis]

The question is still unanswered though.

The assumption is that because we "know that he is a well known pitcher with good stats and a huge public acceptance that he will bring in alot of money especially if its a sunday night game were everyone is watching" the opening number (-190) is bound to go higher (to -210 or 220)
on that particular knowledge.

I question that assumption very much.

IMO, such a trivial information must be already priced in and -190 has to be already a shaded enough number designed to extract additional profit from unsophisticated players. To expect that -190 will go even higher simply due to the flow of squarer money alone would be pretty unwise.
Books can not do that. They can't simply raise the price on a favorite side alone. -190/+165 can not become -220/+165 all of a sudden.
At least, I have never seen such a development yet.
Plus side has to go up too bringing the odds to, let's say -210/+190.
In a absence of fundamental reasons for such a move, +190 will surly be a +EV side which will be hammered mercilessly and rapidly
by smart money.

So, a naive projection that public betting on its favorite pitcher will result in odds predictably moving higher is nothing more but a naive wishful thinking. In practice, books will be very happy to simply collect at overpriced -190 all day long or until real reasons to move the line will come in. But real reasons come randomly and thus are unpredictable.

[Nick@SI]

The question is still unanswered though.

The assumption is that because we "know that he is a well known pitcher with good stats and a huge public acceptance that he will bring in alot of money especially if its a sunday night game were everyone is watching" the opening number (-190) is bound to go higher (to -210 or 220)
on that particular knowledge.

I question that assumption very much.

IMO, such a trivial information must be already priced in and -190 has to be already a shaded enough number designed to extract additional profit from unsophisticated players. To expect that -190 will go even higher simply due to the flow of squarer money alone would be pretty unwise.
Books can not do that. They can't simply raise the price on a favorite side alone. -190/+165 can not become -220/+165 all of a sudden.
At least, I have never seen such a development yet.
Plus side has to go up too bringing the odds to, let's say -210/+190.
In a absence of fundamental reasons for such a move, +190 will surly be a +EV side which will be hammered mercilessly and rapidly
by smart money.

So, a naive projection that public betting on its favorite pitcher will result in odds predictably moving higher is nothing more but a naive wishful thinking. In practice, books will be very happy to simply collect at overpriced -190 all day long or until real reasons to move the line will come in. But real reasons come randomly and thus are unpredictable.

So I guess I ask these two questions. One you think the sharps are the ones backing those high fav prices to move them further up when it happens? I have my doubts many sharps are laying -190 more than likely lay off or betting other side be my guess but it isn't from knowing any on a personal level by any stretch.
Second is you say the book will be happy with -190 but I'm willing to bet they would be that much happier if they can get -210 out of them. Again just my IMO.
Overall you have to look at the situation some might move for instance Wainwright tonight started at -150 against the Cubs and is now at -165 at some -157 at Pinny. Verlander facing a much tougher team in the Rangers actually went down from -175 down to mid -160's.
Guess that is where your handicap has to come in you have to figure out if you think the line will move for whatever reason. I however believe in what JuniorA's general statement typically betting public is going to back favorites even more so if a top notch pitcher is on the hill so if you want a chance to bet the large dog facing an elite pitcher mid as well wait closer to post.

[hutennis]

So I guess I ask these two questions. One you think the sharps are the ones backing those high fav prices to move them further up when it happens?

No. I think exactly the opposite.

Second is you say the book will be happy with -190 but I'm willing to bet they would be that much happier if they can get -210 out of them. Again just my IMO.

Yes they would be. They would be even happier if they could get people to lay -410. The problem is, they just can't do it.

I think you should read my post one more time.

[chunk]

I think this stuff is getting a little outdated.... no?

[JuniorAnalyst]

you dont know for sure but you need to be sharp with your numbers so that you dont overpay for a team/side if you take a -200 line u better have numbers to back you up proving the team has a 66% or higher chance of winning. you have to think like the sharps and learn to predict line movements. you never gonna beat the movement 80% of the time 60% is probably enough to earn long term but you just have to look at lines overnight and decide if the team has a better chance of winning then the line indicates. if you have info that the marlins have a good chance to win at +200 against the pirates you need to watch how the line is reacting. If the pirates have locke pitching and have been averaging 7runs per game and you think on the other end of the spectrum you have an edge in pitching and can hold them to 2 or less and the marlins lineup can hit the pitcher for 5+ you may want to wait for all the pirate backers that show up night after night to drive that line so u get +220. you just have to learn the market and it takes time but eventually you win long term. Im still figuring it out and am learning to be more responsible with my bankroll after being stupid and busting a few small BRs but i plan on saving up for a few more week working on my systems and getting sharp for the late mlb run and nfl season.

[JuniorAnalyst]

sorry its 4am here so my response may have been a little repetative/blabbery if that makes sense

[hutennis]

Yeah, does look to me like a sports betting equivalent of a Tony Robinson's late night TV motivational bullshit.
Well, good luck with your plans.

I would strongly suggest though, to familiarize yourself with a concept of widely available information being ALWAYS priced in, or reflected, in the mature, liquid market.

[Nick@SI]

No. I think exactly the opposite.



Yes they would be. They would be even happier if they could get people to lay -410. The problem is, they just can't do it.

I think you should read my post one more time.

Well I don't see a reason to reply to the second part. So you agree that public action is likely the driving force when the line moves further up not sharp action. While I do somewhat side with you you cant just blindly follow that I do think as part of each's own start to their handicap can make note of that line that they feel may be driven up by the public realistically for any reason be it strong set of bats, strong starting pitching, current hot streak, strong fan base whatever reason etc.

[hutennis]

Well I don't see a reason to reply to the second part. So you agree that public action is likely the driving force when the line moves further up not sharp action.

No I don't agree.
Again, books can not move line up on air. In a such a low margin market like baseball they simply have nor room for it.
By doing so, the will be forced to give away a lot of value on another side and they will not do it.

It is simple enough concept and I don't understand why it is so hard to grasp.

[Nick@SI]

No I don't agree.
Again, books can not move line up on air. In a such a low margin market like baseball they simply have nor room for it.
By doing so, the will be forced to give away a lot of value on another side and they will not do it.

It is simple enough concept and I don't understand why it is so hard to grasp.

Okay sense books don't move line based off action they get & value pitchers and teams properly why do lines move as you seem to be the god at this kinda stuff.

[hutennis]

Okay sense books don't move line based off action they get...

They do in other cases, but they don't move it on air in such a low margin and highly efficient market like baseball.
There is a big difference there.

...& value pitchers and teams properly...

What makes you think they do it less properly than you do?

...why do lines move...

New information.

as you seem to be the god at this kinda stuff.

If you want to be sarcastic, you can be sarcastic all you want but only about the argument.
When you can not deal with an argument and out of frustration start directing your sarcasm to a person instead of his argument
you are committing one of the oldest logical fallacies known. Don't do that. It is useless, wrong and shows nothing but your weakness.

[Nick@SI]

They do in other cases, but they don't move it on air in such a low margin and highly efficient market like baseball.
There is a big difference there.



What makes you think they do it less properly than you do?



New information.



If you want to be sarcastic, you can be sarcastic all you want but only about the argument.
When you can not deal with an argument and out of frustration start directing your sarcasm to a person instead of his argument
you are committing one of the oldest logical fallacies known. Don't do that. It is useless, wrong and shows nothing but your weakness.

I never mendtioned the books moving on air.
And I'm not saying the book does it wrong by any means actually. I've said that the average bettor gauges it wrong and still sees value and bets it up.
And lastly you started with the scarastic remarks and mine was just as much on topic as yours telling me to read your post again like I don't understand it and questioning intelligence by saying how simple it is of a concept & apparently now I'm weak. I brought up how godly smart you are on the topic.

[joshosu1701]

very important