So my last 3 nights went like this... Sunday...my model said don't touch any game... I decided to bet the Kansas Baylor over on my own because I looked at the stats and was sure that over 142 looked good. Every stat looked positive .... what I failed to realize was that Baylor would decide that if they did run and gun like normal... Kansas could also run and gun... but do it better... so Baylors only hope would be to slow the game down. They scored less than 110. .. I have to figure out how to model that effect. And see how it works... I haven't yet.
Day two I had Eastern Michigan over... got buried, Cincy under and Ole Miss over and went 2-1... but after the Kansas game... here is my epiphany...I have always approached the line by trying to produce my own over/under total and compare it to Vegas's line and than bet it... "My epiphany is that Vegas has to look at the same stats and take certain stats into account when making their line... if you can figure out where they are wrong... what stats they must take into account when making the line but continue to be overrated" etc... I found a couple of scenarios that continue to be misleading...anyway... my explanation is probably very poor... Here are the picks from last night... When I added the new scenarios and my new epiphanies... I added the Pitt game under... but reversed the models ECU pick from Over to Under(which lost) which I have to look into... My 59% model continues to slay... If you have any ideas of how to model the Kansas game I am all ears...My belief is that you must look at the spread bet when modeling the over/under...I think there has to be something around relating the two...I plan to dive back into Sunday if I can find the time....
Day two I had Eastern Michigan over... got buried, Cincy under and Ole Miss over and went 2-1... but after the Kansas game... here is my epiphany...I have always approached the line by trying to produce my own over/under total and compare it to Vegas's line and than bet it... "My epiphany is that Vegas has to look at the same stats and take certain stats into account when making their line... if you can figure out where they are wrong... what stats they must take into account when making the line but continue to be overrated" etc... I found a couple of scenarios that continue to be misleading...anyway... my explanation is probably very poor... Here are the picks from last night... When I added the new scenarios and my new epiphanies... I added the Pitt game under... but reversed the models ECU pick from Over to Under(which lost) which I have to look into... My 59% model continues to slay... If you have any ideas of how to model the Kansas game I am all ears...My belief is that you must look at the spread bet when modeling the over/under...I think there has to be something around relating the two...I plan to dive back into Sunday if I can find the time....
| 19:00 | Dayton | La Salle | 144 | N |
| 19:00 | Temple | George Washington | 129 | N |
| 19:00 | North Carolina State | Maryland | 149 | U |
| 19:00 | Richmond | Butler | 127.5 | O |
| 19:00 | Pittsburgh | Villanova | 127.5 | U |
| 19:00 | Providence | Georgetown | 119.5 | O |
| 19:00 | Miami (FL) | Boston College | 128.5 | N |
| 19:00 | Michigan State | Penn State | 124.5 | N |
| 19:00 | Memphis | Rice | 124 | O |
| 19:00 | Houston | East Carolina | 152 | U |
| 19:00 | William & Mary | Georgia State | 127 | O |
| 19:00 | Old Dominion | North Carolina-Wilmington | 134 | N |
| 19:00 | Hofstra | Northeastern | 130 | N |
| 19:00 | Towson | Delaware | 135 | N |
| 19:00 | Ball State | Akron | 130.5 | N |
| 19:00 | Toledo | Western Michigan | 135.5 | N |
| 19:00 | Bowling Green | Miami (OH) | 122 | O |
| 19:00 | Kent State | Buffalo | 130.5 | O |
| 19:00 | Missouri State | Indiana State | 118 | O |
| 19:00 | Northern Illinois | Ohio | 124.5 | N |
| 19:00 | Wofford | UNC Greensboro | 135.5 | O |
| 19:30 | Fordham | Charlotte | 137.5 | N |
| 20:00 | Xavier | St. Bonaventure | 132.5 | N |
| 20:00 | Texas Tech | Oklahoma | 136.5 | N |
| 20:00 | Southern Miss | Southern Methodist | 123 | N |
| 20:00 | Illinois State | Wichita State | 140.5 | N |
| 20:00 | Evansville | Drake | 140.5 | N |
| 20:00 | South Carolina | LSU | 144 | N |
| 20:00 | Georgia | Missouri | 128.5 | N |
| 20:00 | Loyola (IL) | Illinois-Chicago | 116 | N |
| 20:00 | Auburn | Arkansas | 141 | N |
| 20:00 | UTEP | Tulsa | 119.5 | N |
| 21:00 | New Mexico | Boise State | 131.5 | N |
| 21:00 | Alabama | Mississippi State | 118.5 | O |
| 21:00 | Air Force | Colorado State | 135 | N |
| 21:00 | West Virginia | Iowa State | 143.5 | N |
| 21:00 | Kansas State | TCU | 112 | N |
| 21:00 | Purdue | Nebraska | 117 | N |
| 21:00 | Seton Hall | Marquette | 132.5 | N |
| 21:30 | Utah | Washington State | 114 | O |
| 22:00 | Wyoming | Fresno State | 115 | U |
| 22:00 | UNLV | San Diego State | 134 | N |
| 22:00 | Loyola Marymount | San Diego | 129 | O |
| 23:00 | Saint Marys Ca | Brigham Young | 153 | U |
| 23:30 | Colorado | Washington | 137.5 | N |
