Where's my MATH guys?

**bigboydan** · 09-26-05, 10:38 PM

parlys would be the better bet of the two choices.

**BuddyBear** · 09-26-05, 11:30 PM

In my opinioin, he should stick to teasers. Sure the parlay payouts are better the probability of hitting a two team parlay is .50 raised to the second=.25 or if you take the compliment of that (1-A) you have a 75% fail rate. No rationale person would take a bet with a 75% probability fail rate. The books will gladly sign you up if you play parlays and even give you friendly treatment (i.e. bonuses, free bets, etc..if you keep playing parlays b/c they know you are going to lose long term). Teasers are still low probability plays, points or not, but you get adjusted lines (i.e a team -6 now becomes a pk em is by far the better proposition).

Best advice--stick to straight betting and try to grind it out.

Again, just my opinion...no real solid empirical evidence here.

**bigboydan** · 09-27-05, 01:53 AM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

Best advice--stick to straight betting and try to grind it out.

agreed

**darkghost** · 09-27-05, 02:01 AM

FWIW In the long run 2-team parlays and straight bets (@ -110) are about the same proposition. Let's say you're making a $100 2-team parlay that pays $260. Ruling out ties you have 4 outcomes:

Team A loses; Team B wins: you lose $100
Team B loses; Team A wins: you lose $100
Both teams lose: you lose $100
Both teams win: you win $260

So in 3 cases you lose $300 and in 1 case you win $260 for a net loss of $40.
So if you average this $40 for the 4 cases you're losing $10 for every $100 parlay you make.

Instead of a parlay let's say you're making a $100 wager on the 2 teams instead.

Team A loses; Team B wins: you lose $10
Team B loses; Team A wins: you lose $10
Both teams lose: you lose $220
Both teams win: you win $200

So your net losses for the four results are $40. Again divide this by four and your average loss is $10 (which is a no-brainer since you expect to win 1 and lose 1 and lose the $10 juice) which is the same as making a $100 parlay.

As for teasers, they are more complicated since you need data on how many times those 6 pts come into play but anyone who's bet on sports long enough know teasers are bad news and a quick way to burn your money.

**raiders72001** · 09-27-05, 02:43 AM

Out of the two the only bet that would be to your advantage is a teaser that crosses both of the big key numbers 3 and 7.

If the line is 2.5 take the dog and tease it up to 8.5 this way you get +3 and +7. It also works the other way. If the favorite is -8.5 then take the favorite and make it -2.5.

There is one way on parlays but most books don't allow you to do this. You want to play a correlated parlay when the spread is huge.

Say the line is 25 and the total is 41. You want to play the fav at -25 and over 41. If the team is going to cover 25 they most likely will score 41 points between them.You can also do the opposite in taking the dog +25 and under 41.

Once in a while you'll find a book that gives 7-1 on three team parlays . This is true odds and is a good bet.

To summarize play teasers when you can cross both 3 and 7. Only play correlated parlays or parlays with true odds.

**pags11** · 09-27-05, 02:51 AM

maybe this is a "none of the above" answer, but I wouldn't recommend playing teasers or parlays period...why have to win two or three games to win one bet...I'd like to win one game to win one bet if you know what I'm saying...I'm on Fresno St. -12.5 tommorrow if that matters to anyone...

**Brick Tamland** · 09-27-05, 02:56 AM

Darkhorse

If you bet 4 $100 bets at -110 the outcomes are 50/50 so you would lose 20 bucks.

2team parlay at 13/5 or 2team teaser at 10/11......
I do not know if there is a value for how much the 6 pts is worth but that is the better play...I think.
You should use the points to hit key numers. I remember seeing 13.5/5 out there so that also leads me to believe the points are the better play.
As a rule straight bets are better since you normally cant find the best lines at the same book. You cant shop for shit. BUT if I had an sia account or one of those with off lines I would be parlaying my face off.

**raiders72001** · 09-27-05, 03:01 AM

It's very easy to determine how much 6 points is worth at different intervals. What you first have to do is figure out how the ML corresponds to the spread. Then you figure out the percentage of times that each of the numbers will win. This allows you to determine the value of 6 points. You will find value crossing the 3 and 7 and that's it.

**raiders72001** · 09-27-05, 03:04 AM

This is a basic conversion chart

FAVORED BY NFL MONEYLINE COLLEGE MONEYLINE
---------- ------------- -----------------
2 -130/+110 -130/+110
2½ -140/+120 -140/+120
3 -155/+135 -155/+135
3½ -175/+155 -175/+165
4 -200/+170 -185/+165
4½ -220/+180 -200/+170
5 or 5½ -240/+190 -220/+180
6 -270/+210 -240/+190
6½ -300/+220 -270/+210
7 -330/+250 -300/+220
7½, 8 or 8½ -360/+280 -330/+250
9 or 9½ -400/+300 -360/+280
10 -450/+325 -400/+300
11 -550/+375 -450/+325
12 -600/+400 -500/+350
13 -650/+450 -550/+375

**raiders72001** · 09-27-05, 04:03 AM

Parlays can be good bets if you are good but if you are cold they'll beat you up bad. I'll use an example of a two team parlay having 55% winners and 45% winners at 13/5 for 100 games at $100/game.

Win 55% of each individual game.
You will win (55/100) * (55/100) = 30% winning parlays and 70% losers.

Win 30 * 2.6 = $7800
Lose 70 * 1 = $7000
Profit = $7800 - $7000 = $800

-------------------------

Now if you win 45%
(45/100) * (45/100) = 20% winning parlays and 80% losers
Win 20 * 2.6 = $5200
Lose 80 * 1 = $8000
Loss = $2800

**LVHerbie** · 09-27-05, 04:15 AM

Originally posted by darkghost

FWIW In the long run 2-team parlays and straight bets (@ -110) are about the same proposition. Let's say you're making a $100 2-team parlay that pays $260. Ruling out ties you have 4 outcomes:

Team A loses; Team B wins: you lose $100
Team B loses; Team A wins: you lose $100
Both teams lose: you lose $100
Both teams win: you win $260

So in 3 cases you lose $300 and in 1 case you win $260 for a net loss of $40.
So if you average this $40 for the 4 cases you're losing $10 for every $100 parlay you make.

Instead of a parlay let's say you're making a $100 wager on the 2 teams instead.

Team A loses; Team B wins: you lose $10
Team B loses; Team A wins: you lose $10
Both teams lose: you lose $220
Both teams win: you win $200

So your net losses for the four results are $40. Again divide this by four and your average loss is $10 (which is a no-brainer since you expect to win 1 and lose 1 and lose the $10 juice) which is the same as making a $100 parlay.

As for teasers, they are more complicated since you need data on how many times those 6 pts come into play but anyone who's bet on sports long enough know teasers are bad news and a quick way to burn your money.

You're math is off... I'm not the best with math but I'm going to explain it properly (or least try too... ;-)

so you bet all four combinations on your parlay... you will one for 2.6... so your return is +260 with a loss of -300 = -40...

you now bet the same all four ways straight up... you lose two bets and win two... 200 positive and 220 negative... -20

in other words parlays pay 2.6 to 1 on a 3 to 1 for a 10.23% house edge...

straight bets pay 11 to 10 on a 1 to 1 proposition... house edge is 4.23%...

**raiders72001** · 09-27-05, 04:26 AM

My math's not off. You are assuming that you are winning 50% of your individual plays. I was trying to show that there is an advantage to playing parlays if you hit 55% winners on each individual game. But there's a huge disadvantage if you hit 45%.

Hit 55% of each game at $100/ game over 100 games = profit of $800 as shown in example above.

Straight hitting 55% winners
Win 55 * .9090 = $5000
Lose 45 * 1 = $4500
Profit = $500

So if you hit 55% winners it's more profitable to play parlays.

**LVHerbie** · 09-27-05, 04:28 AM

raider was replying to darkhorse not you... ;-)

**raiders72001** · 09-27-05, 04:35 AM

oops- Sorry LVHerbie

**Bill Dozer** · 09-27-05, 05:47 PM

Thanks guys. I passed all this along.

I took the easy way out and advised him to grab 6 pt 2-teamers at even money at a places like Hollywood and WSEX. I don't think there are any many places offering 2-team parlay odds that can compete with that.

**THESCOUT** · 09-27-05, 10:54 PM

thanks

**LVHerbie** · 09-27-05, 11:27 PM

Originally posted by raiders72001

This is a basic conversion chart

FAVORED BY NFL MONEYLINE COLLEGE MONEYLINE
---------- ------------- -----------------
2 -130/+110 -130/+110
2½ -140/+120 -140/+120
3 -155/+135 -155/+135
3½ -175/+155 -175/+165
4 -200/+170 -185/+165
4½ -220/+180 -200/+170
5 or 5½ -240/+190 -220/+180
6 -270/+210 -240/+190
6½ -300/+220 -270/+210
7 -330/+250 -300/+220
7½, 8 or 8½ -360/+280 -330/+250
9 or 9½ -400/+300 -360/+280
10 -450/+325 -400/+300
11 -550/+375 -450/+325
12 -600/+400 -500/+350
13 -650/+450 -550/+375

Raiders, this is good enough... often wondered if I would be better off betting the money line instead of the spread... just a couple quick guestions... first, if there was no vig or juice I guess the true odds would be "a split" between the favorite and dog number, right? example 3 poiint spread would be -145/+145, neglecting the vig... second, what is your source for this chart? thanks for the help...

**raiders72001** · 09-28-05, 02:01 AM

To find true odds. Ex. +250/-300

+250 is 3.5 in decimal odds, and -300 is 1.33

Now, the true odds are:

3.5 * (1/3.5 + 1/1.33) = 3.625 which is +263
and
1.33 * (1/3.5 + 1/1.33) = 1.381 which is -263

And an easy way to convert american odds to decimal odds (and vice versa), is like this:

If american odds is over +100, then divide it by hundred and add one, and it's in decimals: +250/100+1 = 3.5

And if american odds are under -100, then divide it by hundred and forget the minus sign, and then divide number one with that value, and add one: 1/(300/100)+1 = 1.33

**bigboydan** · 11-09-07, 12:42 AM

Originally posted by Bill Dozer

The two team parlay offers 13/5 and the teaser is 10/11 odds but gives you 6 points. Doesn't the sportsbook have more of an advantage with parlays rather than teasers? Wouldn't teasers be better than straight bets?

This guy could get better odds than 13/5 on his parlays if he was to look.

**louis** · 11-09-07, 06:38 AM

It depends in some cases teasers are better; in other cases parlays are better. 6 pt. teasers are best going over the 3 and 7, otherwise they are no good. 2 teamers are best at +100, otherwise 3 teamers at +180 offer more EV. Parlays are best when there are correlations, otherwise they are no good. These are the general rules. The house edge on a 13/5 parlay is 10%, unless there is a correlation, straight bets are better. The house edge on teasers is also enormous, unless going over the 3 and 7 in certain situations nicely outlined in Wong's book. When making straight bets, basic strategy is to only bet dogs and under, and shop all the books for the best numbers. A good handicapping strategy is to bet against the very best team, and in favor of the very worse team. Shop for the best numbers. Another strategy is to look for teams that have a streak of covering the spread by getting lucky - turnovers. Eventually their luck will run out. Also vice versa, betting in favor of big dogs that are really good teams but the ball has not bounced their way during fumbles.

**VegasDave** · 11-09-07, 07:14 AM

My fave parlays are the type that raiders mentioned above; betting the game and the over/under based on what the team would need to do to win.

Doesn't work for all games, but take for example betting Cinci this week. Might as well take it with the over; you know their defense will give up points even to the terrible Baltimore offense, so you are counting on them to win a high scoring affair.

Parlays are also a great bet when you are running very low on funds. I remember last year my account was down to $50 heading into week 17, and my two favorite games were NE ML @ Tennessee (NE was +3) and Pitts ML @ Cinci (PIT was +6). I figured NE would have to score plenty to beat red hot Tennessee, and Pit would have to shut down Cinci's offense to win that outright, so I parlayed the over and under respectively. $25 on each.

1:15 pacific time, I had $272.05.

(Sorry for the useless story... way this seasons been going I need to remember back to times when I actually won!)

**Arilou** · 11-09-07, 07:49 PM

The basic principle is sound: Teasers offer value in the right spots, parlays are exactly like paying normal juice. Teasing randomly is a disaster.

**Blackroc78** · 03-12-12, 10:02 PM

**sapidoc** · 03-12-12, 10:20 PM

I lol'd