Developed two systems.... but need thoughts on choosing one...any thoughts with

[hutennis]

I would not tell someone picking up a violin for the first time, who seemed quite unfit to play decently, to put away his instrument and go read a book on why most people never become a virtuoso.

I might instruct them on how to read music, and the amount of time and effort that would need to be put in to accomplish this, but to simply assume, "You aren't where you need to be so give up now", seems counter-productive to me.

LOL!!!

Would you also tell him, you know, just to be fair, that his live savings are on a line an he will lose them all if he will not become a new Paganini?
Also, will you tell him that his chances to become a new Paganini are slim to none and slim already has left the building?

You know, good, old risk / reward and expected value considerations.
Are they still being considered productive at all around here?
What about reason? Common sense?

I know for a fact, they are sure as shit considered counterproductive if looked at from books POV

[HUY]

I would not tell someone picking up a violin for the first time, who seemed quite unfit to play decently, to put away his instrument and go read a book on why most people never become a virtuoso.

I might instruct them on how to read music, and the amount of time and effort that would need to be put in to accomplish this, but to simply assume, "You aren't where you need to be so give up now", seems counter-productive to me.

If playing the violin was an extremely competitive endeavour that drains your bank account if you cannot be one of the best in the world then I would advise that no one tries to learn it.

[Spektre]

Do you have hidden variables known to you that I do not see in evidence?

From this thread I have no idea what his life savings/bank account is, nor what percentage of this his bankroll is. I certainly don't see any suggestion that he limit his bankroll to a reasonably small percentage of his net worth...merely that he give up the hobby.

Huy: Since it is doubtful you could know a priori if you were going to be one of the best in the world in, you would then advise no one gets into sports betting. Perhaps a reasonable position. Are you on a crusade to encourage others to cease all sports betting?

PS: I enjoy sports betting. I am reasonably successful at it. My life savings will never be at risk from this hobby.

[hutennis]

The variable is there, you just chose to conveniently ignore it.

As I said before, it is

difference between innocent hobby and potentially dangerous and destructive obsession based on self delusion, limited knowledge on a subject, bunch of erroneous believes and complete loss of common sense.

It is only the matter of time before confused, deluded and ignorant will get hurt badly and not only financially.

Nobody is on crusade to encourage others to cease all sports betting.
We all love fun and excitement that this form of intertainment can offer.

The point is that once you are there for something more than harmless intertainment of an office pool or weekly wager to boost your adrenalin level during the game, you are 100 % shark bait if reason, common sense and sufficient knowledge base are not employed to protect you from harm you can inflict upon yourself.

[Spektre]

The variable is there, you just chose to conveniently ignore it.

As I said before, it is

It is only the matter of time before confused, deluded and ignorant will get hurt badly and not only financially.

Nobody is on crusade to encourage others to cease all sports betting.
We all love fun and excitement that this form of intertainment can offer.

The point is that once you are there for something more than harmless intertainment of an office pool or weekly wager to boost your adrenalin level during the game, you are 100 % shark bait if reason, common sense and sufficient knowledge base are not employed to protect you from harm you can inflict upon yourself.

I don't agree with your central premise and think perhaps you might be projecting personal traits onto others.

There are plenty of people who get a rush from sports betting that are not in danger of personal or financial ruin. Not everyone has an addictive personality. Nothing the OP stated indicates he does not have common sense. Certainly nothing indicates a lack of restraint.

Indeed he starts his dicsussion out with a question about money management, which while certainly not proof positive, I'd argue is more correlated with a conservative mindset than an addictive one.

Even if we were to accept your premise, I would argue a more helpful appraoch would be to help incrementally boost his knowledge base, instead of advocating a departure from the hobby.

[geebo18]

Can someone elaborate what this means please, have never come across the term.

It's referring to the Sharpe ratio = excess return / std deviation of expected excess return. In other words, it measures how much more return you expect for each unit of deviation or risk. I.e. reward-risk ratio

[hutennis]

I don't agree with your central premise and think perhaps you might be projecting personal traits onto others.

There are plenty of people who get a rush from sports betting that are not in danger of personal or financial ruin. Not everyone has an addictive personality. Nothing the OP stated indicates he does not have common sense. Certainly nothing indicates a lack of restraint.

Indeed he starts his dicsussion out with a question about money management, which while certainly not proof positive, I'd argue is more correlated with a conservative mindset than an addictive one.

Even if we were to accept your premise, I would argue a more helpful appraoch would be to help incrementally boost his knowledge base, instead of advocating a departure from the hobby.

Never mind the rest of your post, but if his absolute sincere believe that after endless useless back testing and non stop data twitching he came up with a 57-59% wr "models" is not a perfect indication for a complete lack of an essential knowledge on a subject, critical thinking and understanding how the world works (aka common sense), then I'm sure that continue this discussion with you is simply, how should I say it... counterproductive.

I would suggest you give those books I've recommended a good try.

[Spektre]

I assume you mean the books that are meant to help me look back on this and realize the HORROR of what is being done.

No thanks. I can see a pattern forming though. Regardless of the perceived defecit, your go to advice is "give up the hobby."

Well, it is certainly an easier route than actually helping someone. Perhaps you might consider an even easier route: not reponding. It is just as helpful and involves less effort.

---

In any event, you took the time to respond to my posts. Thank you for that. I've said what I wanted to say here.

[TurtleSpeen]

Hi Usma1992,

If you are winning 57% or 59% of the time, the average win per bet placed would need to be more than 175% or 169% respectively for you to break even (i.e. place a $100 bet, win $175 = you would break even @ a 57% win rate, any less and you would loose).

What are the average win % for bets in your systems?

[brettd]

It's referring to the Sharpe ratio = excess return / std deviation of expected excess return. In other words, it measures how much more return you expect for each unit of deviation or risk. I.e. reward-risk ratio

I'm familiar with the Sharpe ratio, just was uncertain whether I was missing in the understanding of a metric I hadn't heard of, ie: "pain to gain ratio".

[Tommy_de1st]

Come back to subject guys cos it went a bit off-topic

[hutennis]

I assume you mean the books that are meant to help me look back on this and realize the HORROR of what is being done.

No thanks. I can see a pattern forming though. Regardless of the perceived defecit, your go to advice is "give up the hobby."

Well, it is certainly an easier route than actually helping someone. Perhaps you might consider an even easier route: not reponding. It is just as helpful and involves less effort.

---

In any event, you took the time to respond to my posts. Thank you for that. I've said what I wanted to say here.

My advice is NOT to "give up the hobby".
My advice is to use critical thinking and common sense in whatever you are doing.
It is especially important when you are involved in any form of speculation (like sport betting), when randomness and uncertainty create many opportunities to get confused.
If you dont do that, the HORROR, in one form or another, is just around the corner.

[Spektre]

How do you figure.

Hypothetical: I make $500k a year. A portion of that I spend on entertainment. That portion I choose to spend on sports betting. This portion for most entertainment purposes will be lost for the sake of the entertainment. In sports betting there is a chance, no matter how random my analysis, that I get my entertainment and some of my money back. Win-win. No horror..

[hutennis]

How do you figure.

Hypothetical: I make $500k a year. A portion of that I spend on entertainment. That portion I choose to spend on sports betting. This portion for most entertainment purposes will be lost for the sake of the entertainment. In sports betting there is a chance, no matter how random my analysis, that I get my entertainment and some of my money back. Win-win. No horror..

I have no problem with your approach.

You are not chasing a mirage.
Your expectations and reasoning are correct.

[Spektre]

Then we reach some consensus.

We have no knowledge of the OPs financial situation. His may be similar to mine. I know when I come on the board and ask for help from those more knowledgable on a subject, I don't like disparaging remarks because I do not know the subject matter I am asking about. If I knew the answer, I wouldn't be asking.

Thanks for taking the time to respond.

[HUY]

How do you figure.

Hypothetical: I make $500k a year. A portion of that I spend on entertainment. That portion I choose to spend on sports betting. This portion for most entertainment purposes will be lost for the sake of the entertainment. In sports betting there is a chance, no matter how random my analysis, that I get my entertainment and some of my money back. Win-win. No horror..

There's nothing wrong with that approach. Most people here are not taking this approach though.

[Peregrine Stoop]

guy doesn't realize how to test his own tool... use half your sample and develop the parameter ratings you think are best... see if the outputs would win against the other half of the sample