What is the proper way to hedge in this situation?

[easyliving]

I have a 3 team future bet I had placed preseason. I have hit 2/3. The only remaining one is Minnesotta Vikings Under 6.5 wins.

the bet is 3k to win 5.8k

they are at 6 wins right now and their schedule and the estimated ML for minny is as listed.

vs Bears +130
@ St.Louis +135
@houston +380
vs GB +230

there are a few scenarios I'm considering. First is to let it ride and don't hedge at all which I don't want to do.

second is letting it ride this week and start hedging with the rams game and hedge last 3 games

or start hedging this week and bet them all 4 games straight.

and finally bet them this week and next skip the houston game bet them again last game. However I just realized Houston might guarantee first place by this game and they might rest starters so even though I was considering doing this at first Its very likely that they may rest starters and Foster might get limited carries as well as the offense not playing parts of 2nd half etc.

I have never faced such a situation and I'm not sure what to do here. I would like to at least make some profit in this situation and would really appreciate help. on a 3 or 4 game hedge how much should I be betting each game to maximize my profit? I have only done single game hedges before and I am clueless on how to calculate this. Any input will be highly appreciated.

[tto827]

There are a lot of different ways to hedge it, none of which are very appealing at the moment.
How to hedge it depends on if you want to maximize profit, or just make sure you at least win x amount of dollars. I didn't work through the math, but I'm almost sure that hedging this would be a mistake in the long run until after the St. Louis game. Because if you started hedging now, I'm not sure there is a way to make sure you recuperate even your initial 3k, let alone profit off it.

[easyliving]

There are a lot of different ways to hedge it, none of which are very appealing at the moment.
How to hedge it depends on if you want to maximize profit, or just make sure you at least win x amount of dollars. I didn't work through the math, but I'm almost sure that hedging this would be a mistake in the long run until after the St. Louis game. Because if you started hedging now, I'm not sure there is a way to make sure you recuperate even your initial 3k, let alone profit off it.

I might most likely let it ride this week however I will almost certainly put some money on them in the Rams game. As far as the last two games I will most likely consider the situation of the 2 teams they are playing and make my decision that way.

[tto827]

That's a good way to do it. I do not see the bears losing again, but I didn't see them losing last week either so....... Your original parlay has odds of like +190 or so, just remember that when looking at hedging opportunities. I'll be rooting for you

[money42]

What'd you end up doing?

[easyliving]

What'd you end up doing?

absolutely nothing, let it ride and got crushed by peterson and the vikings.

[frongi]

If you thoughr there was no chance they lose out, you could have bet 1k, 1.75k, 1k, and then 2.05k. That would have given you a net loss of just under 2k if they won any of those games, and broke even if they did lose out. A different combination wouls havegiven you a net loss of 1.5 k no matter which game they lost or if they won out.