Sharper ?

[chris2b]

Hello everyone,


Firstly, excuse me for my poor English.


I see many bettors trying to find out who the opening line or closing line is sharper.

I think it must be assumed that the bookmakers receive odds of an compagny specializing in betting solutions like Betradar . After bookmakers receive the odds, they adjust depending on the style of bet to their customers (objective is to equal bet on all sides). But let's be clear, they not adjust their odds 20% or 30% in one side. Their adjustment is minimal.

1) In this case, why the odds issued by the compagny is slightly wrong or false ?


My theory is relatively simple - and i think the simple is better -

If we make a giant backtest, we will find there is not much difference in terms of performance between the opening line and closing line.

We will say that the closing line is sharper than the opening line by 1-5% return better (return better and not positive return). I think I am not far from the truth.

In this case, if we take odds 10% or 15% better than the opening line regardless of the period, regardless closine line we will mathematically have a better return than the closing line.

In conclusion, IMO, the most important thing is not the closing line, this is the opening line + %age accordate to have a better return than closing line.

Thank you very much for your comments and sorry for my english.

Regards,

Chris

[allin1]

so this is just a hunch with no actual research?

[chris2b]

Not Hunch, but my point of view with everything that has been said and backtest before.

So, what is your point of view, your certainties ?

[allin1]

all the people that are making a lot of money from sports betting are very serious about the concept of beating the closing line. even big bookmakers are profiling their customers according to this concept. when they see a guy that is constantly beating the closing line, they say he is sharp and expect him to win in the long run. he has an edge over them.

I think these guys have done their homework and have big reasons to take this concept so seriously

[HeeeHAWWWW]

My suspicion is that closers will be sharper for American sports, but less so or not at all for a lot of other sports.

[Justin7]

I would look at your returns versus both openers and closers.

You obviously want to see results versus openers do better than closers. If you don't see that, you're either very wrong, or very far ahead of the market... Not many people can be far ahead.

[chris2b]

I would look at your returns versus both openers and closers.

You obviously want to see results versus openers do better than closers. If you don't see that, you're either very wrong, or very far ahead of the market... Not many people can be far ahead.

Not completely.

My primary question is : why the odds issued by a compagny like betradar (who delivers odds) is wrong in comparing the bookmakers closing line ?

I never found a concret answer... (apart answer : sometimes is better , sometimes not)

I just saying that opening lines + 10% is more accurate than the closing lines.

I would be very happy to see the results of this study.

[hutennis]

Not completely.

My primary question is : why the odds issued by a compagny like betradar (who delivers odds) is wrong in comparing the bookmakers closing line ?

I never found a concret answer... (apart answer : sometimes is better , sometimes not)

I just saying that opening lines + 10% is more accurate than the closing lines.

I would be very happy to see the results of this study.

I guess "wrong" is not a right word to use.
It is not a wrong line, is is a different line.
it is a line, that incorporates more relevant information.
In fact, every new line is simply a new opener so to speak.

My question is, how you gonna get, at any time, opener or not, line that is 10% better than market?

[chris2b]

My question is, how you gonna get, at any time, opener or not, line that is 10% better than market?

Exchange for example. It's not 10% better than closing line. it's 10% better than opening line and of course can be x% better than closing line.

absolutely, it's not the wrong line but the different line.

[hutennis]

Exchange for example. It's not 10% better than closing line. it's 10% better than opening line and of course can be x% better than closing line.

Could you please give a real time example?
I have a strong feeling you are under some misconception.

[HUY]

The notion of BTCL is akin to a gospel here, but few have made any real research on it. Simply gathering opening and closing lines and comparing them against the outcome is not very informative. You should first remove all matches for which new information surfaced during the week. Otherwise you're comparing apples with oranges.

[chris2b]

Could you please give a real time example?
I have a strong feeling you are under some misconception.

ok i'm in full research and i think i forgotten few parameters really sorry....