[the_mathman]

Hi, my friends!

I'm just started my 2nd season of "serious" betting on the MLB.
After my first good season of MLB (over 54% win) i'm tuning my money management and i'm undecided on 2 "prudent" solutions:

option 1: fixed bets: I bet the 2% of the initial value of my bank for all the season;
option 2: proportional bets: I bet the 2% of the max value of my bank;


The option 1 is the more conservative strategy: If I win, I win less, but similar, if I lose, i lose less.

The option 2 is more aggressive: if i win, my base stack grow slowly, so if i'm steadily over the 52,5% of hit rate, then at the end of the year i have a greath additional winning.
The problem is that this option 2 is seriously limited from the results in the end-season: if i win at April (with a 10$ units) but I lose at the end season (with 15$ units) i can end the season in red easily.

what is your suggestion? Option 1 or Option 2?

[Zuon]

imho
if you are searching for a low risk solution, you must use flat betting.
With flat betting you win only if you beat the book, but your bank will be reserved along.

but I prefer risk more to win more...

[That Foreign Guy]

Why would you not bet a percentage of your current bank if you're going to use a flattish bet structure?

Also, what about Kelly?

The next ten posts will now go something like:


mouthbreather - blah blah blah kelly is broken
math geek - LOL you fail at math
Mouthbreather - yeah but you can't handicap and your mother dresses you funny and what if some carefully constructed mathematical fallacy happens?
math geek - FFS I hate this thread.

There I just saved everyone two days of posting

[jgilmartin]

Why would you not bet a percentage of your current bank if you're going to use a flattish bet structure?

Also, what about Kelly?

The next ten posts will now go something like:


mouthbreather - blah blah blah kelly is broken
math geek - LOL you fail at math
Mouthbreather - yeah but you can't handicap and your mother dresses you funny and what if some carefully constructed mathematical fallacy happens?
math geek - FFS I hate this thread.

There I just saved everyone two days of posting

I wasn't going to go into this thread based on the title, but I'm glad I did. Spot on.

[LT Profits]

If you are winning, basing wager size on the opening bankroll of the season is TOO conservative. If you insist on using 2% regardless, base on the beginning bankroll of each DAY.

[donjuan]

Option 1 is clearly idiotic. Option 2 is clearly suboptimal. See TFG's post.

[sharpcat]

Why would you not bet a percentage of your current bank if you're going to use a flattish bet structure?

Also, what about Kelly?

The next ten posts will now go something like:

Know it all - Your dumb, I am a genius
mouthbreather - blah blah blah kelly is broken
math geek - LOL you fail at math
Mouthbreather - yeah but you can't handicap and your mother dresses you funny and what if some carefully constructed mathematical fallacy happens?
math geek - FFS I hate this thread.

There I just saved everyone two days of posting

I fixed it for you

1 down 5 to go.

[ICE-BLOOD]

option 1 is okay

withdrawl winnings thruout the season

must be comfortable with your initial bankroll size and your 2% wager size all year

[the_mathman]

Why would you not bet a percentage of your current bank if you're going to use a flattish bet structure?

Also, what about Kelly?

...

An example from my real life:

this NBA season:
starting bank: 100 units bet 2% of the bank
balance @ december: (+22 win) 150 units
from jan start a drammatic negative series thus from jan to march I have a partial of
20 lose, but now a 2% bet value is (150 x 2%= 3 units) so my bank go down until 90.

i have lose 10 units with an 51 % of hit rate.
With the option 1 my bank remain 100.

[That Foreign Guy]

2 down 5 to go.

[Thremp]

An example from my real life: this NBA season: starting bank: 100 units bet 2% of the bank balance @ december: (+22 win) 150 units from jan start a drammatic negative series thus from jan to march I have a partial of 20 lose, but now a 2% bet value is (150 x 2%= 3 units) so my bank go down until 90. i have lose 10 units with an 51 % of hit rate. With the option 1 my bank remain 100.

Perhaps you should focus on being a winning bettor before turning to alchemy.

[rsigley]

free thremp

[the_mathman]

Perhaps you should focus on being a winning bettor before turning to alchemy.

this isn't alchemy!
the money management must to be the best possible.

[subs]

option 2 > option 1.

just bet to win 2% of current roll

oooops, i mean LOL u fail at math

[bztips]

[subs]

been called nicer things

[bztips]

Sorry, it was meant for the guy above you (the OP), not you!

[Zuon]

Perhaps you should focus on being a winning bettor before turning to alchemy.

It is cultural:
European gambler make more attention at the money management.
But at least the problem is the same: if you don't win at least 50%+1 of your bets you are a loser.

(but with a good money management if you win at least 50%+1 of your bets you win more!)

[the_mathman]

option 2 > option 1.

just bet to win 2% of current roll

oooops, i mean LOL u fail at math

yes, probally is the best solution....

[That Foreign Guy]

free thremp

with any thremp of equal or lesser value

[keel44]

Please diversify your plays. You should bet many games at once, but with lower percentage of bankroll. Also increase when you starting winning day after day. Drop when you start losing. You want to ride the streaks. A grinder for sure. But well worth it.

When I say many plays a day, I am talking 5-8 plays.

[Thremp]

this isn't alchemy! the money management must to be the best possible.

Yeah, and the one you just espoused is a massive crock of shit.

[Thremp]

It is cultural: European gambler make more attention at the money management. But at least the problem is the same: if you don't win at least 50%+1 of your bets you are a loser. (but with a good money management if you win at least 50%+1 of your bets you win more!)

Apparently not if you're a Euro.

But really, Buchdahl's book focuses on this subject and is geared to Euros whereas the older material that is US centered doesn't address this topic in as great of detail.

[mikeanite]

i can't see how one can win 52% and be up in baseball for the season. the game is so juice. can i see an example of some of ur bets and the juice for one day? how you know how much to put on a team?

[Inspirited]

resizing my bets for 2% of BR each day gave me lower highs and lower lows than betting 2% of initial BR and sticking with it. just resize your BR after you make so many units and if yer scared you can stand still near the end of the season.

[TRE1968]

labourchere is what i use

[Inspirited]

i can't see how one can win 52% and be up in baseball for the season. the game is so juice. can i see an example of some of ur bets and the juice for one day? how you know how much to put on a team?

I'm at 52% and winning. It depends on the prices. I have bet on quite a few dogs. I'm not a progressive chaser either.

[TRE1968]

with labourchere you only need to hit 40

[durito]

where the **** do you people come from?

[Sawyer]

Can't go wrong with Labouchere..if you're not extremely unlucky, lol. Just be selective and profits will come.

[wiffle]

lol donkaments

[Dark Horse]

Kelly. If she kisses back.

[wiffle]

yo dh, do you like the labouchere system

i mean, you only have to hit 40%. you have to hit 55% with kelly, amirite

[Vegas_bond]

i can't see how one can win 52% and be up in baseball for the season. the game is so juice. can i see an example of some of ur bets and the juice for one day? how you know how much to put on a team?

Betting small favorites, dogs ...

[kram]

im also realy curious about labouchure and reverse labouchure and how you vary for juice?