Indio stop being a jackass. I could be wrong, but sometimes I get the sense that hutennis might be foreign born(or maybe parents were) so that might explain his sometimes choppy english. But he contributes to HTT and it appears as though you don't.
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Retards often contribute to conversations, doesn't make what they say have any value.
Don't think I contribute? OK, Look at my last two handicapping contribution posts the last few days. #1, My college football selections posted under College Football Betting, the FRESNO ST. -15 thread post post where I offered selections on 3 Saturday college football games. and #2, My advice posted in todays Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Chelsea thread in the Soccer Betting category.
Now, I'm not arrogant enough to think just because my analysis was spot on 4 out of 4 times that I'm some sort of genius that's always right, but thats much more of a contribution to gamblers than HUtennis flawed theories doing little but trying to say how sharp bookmakers are and how no one can beat them ( have yet to read a post of his that promotes any money making ideas). He couldn't even calculate hold percentage properly (a simple task),even though he based it as critical in one of his rants on how there are no value in futures betting because of the holds (completely false assumption I might add). And he uses sarcasm like he's the smartest guy in the room, yet his points are almost always flawed and inaccurate. So if he wants to pretend he's some intellectual, and try to demean others while doing it, then his butchering of the English language, basic math, and history are fair game.
I had no intention of even posting under this thread again, but when a shmuck like you feels the need to stick his nose in it more than a week later, I guess I have to make a reply.
You called me a jackass, I called you a shmuck. Sounds like an even exchange to me. Do you want to let it end there, or do you want to open this up again?
If you want to let it end, than cool, and good luck.Comment -
OP asked for an advice on calculating an edge.
I contributed a complete set of instructions on every aspect of it.
Anyone who wants to find a single wrong number or incorrect premise there is welcome to try.
Also, out of curiosity, I read that Shakhtar post.
Yes, it was written in a perfect english but as far as usefulness - that's about it.
Just a typical useless wright up filled with trivial information.
No value was contributed at all (outside of the grammar lesson maybe)
Why? Because all that was completely priced in by sport betting world.
Yeah, who would not? Tell me something I don't know next time.I'd be very surprised if Shakhtar doesn't win tomorrow
After all, Shakhtar was -180 in DNB market.
Sorry, but anyone who took this seriously lost money.I actually think a 2 goal margin is very realistic.
Good english though, good english.Last edited by hutennis; 10-23-12, 07:22 PM.Comment -
First off , when I wrote that, Shakhtar was a pick em -120, NOT -180. They got bet late (never to -180 either), which means that was pretty useful for those that bought at -120 at the time, wouldn't you say?
Lets see, in that post I suggested players should buy some Shakhtar to win the CL at 100-1 while they still can, because after this game, everyone will start to realize how good they are and you'll never see that price again. Now they're 33-1. So regardless of how that turns out, I'd say a buy suggestion at 100-1 to hold a position thats now 33-1 seems pretty "useful" to me.
And by me saying a 2 goal margin is realistic (which it was, as Chelsea scored in the 88th minute in a game they were dominated in), how did anyone who took that seriously lose money? That's such an ignorant statement that makes no sense whatsoever. They dominated the match, won the game, and everyone who bet them won money, yet you say anyone who takes that seriously lost money? Are you really that demented ? If someone took that seriously, they would have bet Shakhtar at a pck -120, or -0.5 at +140 and won their bet. What you said makes zero sense (what else is new?)
You're just a negative person who must have such a pathetic life that you try to create your own world. You have nothing positive or useful in any post you write, just absolute nonsense and negativity and I really don't think you're even worth the time to respond to anymore when you make statements like this last one which make no sense. Hopefully the 3 out of 1,000 posters that think you have some value will read that and start to realize you're just a bitter loser who knows NOTHING about gambling or sports.
Son, perhaps it's time for you to drive the car in your garage (I'll lay 2/5 you don't have both), close the windows and start the engine. What are you hanging on for?Comment -
Market (pinny and betfair) closed on -180 for Shakhtar. Check it out.
B/c final score was 2:1, and anyone who took it seriously and got Shakhtar -2 lost money.And by me saying a 2 goal margin is realistic (which it was, as Chelsea scored in the 88th minute in a game they were dominated in), how did anyone who took that seriously lose money? ...What you said makes zero sense (what else is new?)
Anyone who took Shakhtar -0.5 in fact ignored your "2 goal margin" optimism, paid more and won.
Make sense now?
What is another side of this trade? How much can you sell it for? In a market with 16.5% vig you can not even get your money back now. So it was useless at 100 and it is useless at 33. So far at least (i'll give you that).Lets see, in that post I suggested players should buy some Shakhtar to win the CL at 100-1 while they still can, because after this game, everyone will start to realize how good they are and you'll never see that price again. Now they're 33-1. So regardless of how that turns out, I'd say a buy suggestion at 100-1 to hold a position thats now 33-1 seems pretty "useful" to me.
Although it may look impressive for uninitiated, but in fact all you had and still have is just another horribly overpriced loooooong shot and a couple of bucks on paper.
Getting some sense, or still don't see any?
Save the rap on lengthy useless write ups and all this childish personal shit. Just keep on posting picks with odds ahead of time.
Soon enough truth about your understanding of gambling and sports will come out.Last edited by hutennis; 10-23-12, 11:43 PM.Comment -
Lol hutennis criticizing somebody else for making long posts that say nothing. Pot meets kettleComment -
I guess, it depends on your definition of "nothing".
Plus, "Save the rap" is a suggestion, not a criticism.Last edited by hutennis; 10-24-12, 01:10 PM.Comment -
Don't you ever get tired of embarrassing yourself?
I follow the markets very closely because unlike you, I'm a professional. Check out the time of my post, it was 13 HOURS BEFORE GAME TIME, and at that time, Shakhtar was -0.5 +147, just look at the odds the original poster quoted as he was on the other side. And while even if Shakhtar had closed at pck -180 (which they never did, they actually closed at Pinnacle at -0.5 +113, I was on Pinnacle 2 minutes before kickoff. ), I'd say touting them as a likely dominant team in that game at +147, and then having them bet to +113 by kickoff only emphasizes how useful that information was to a prospective player of that game. Being on the right side before a major line move consistently gets you kicked out of many shops for a reason, but according to you, that was useless.
And there wasn't a bookmaker on earth that was dealing Shakhtar -2,
you suggesting that by me saying that a 2 goal margin was realistic could cost anyone money who bet Shakhtar might be the dumbest thing ever stated in an SBR post, and that's saying something considering all the dumb things written. What that confidence may have done though, is convinced someone to play them at -0.5 +147 at the time it was written, instead of pck and -0.5 +115, which MAKES THEM MORE MONEY
Just face it, you got slapped again, and instead of admitting it, you just cling on to your hope that not everyone has discovered what a useless idiot you are.
Why don't you analyze my college football betting post in the thread Fresno St. -15 from last week which I posted the day before those games , I'd love to see how your warped brain will try to find that useless too?
The only reason I even mentioned any of this in the first place was just showing an example of useful contribution to another poster, since NONE of your posts do anything useful to bettors.
Son, it's time to face the facts and move on. You're like a snake oil salesman with nothing left in your wagon that you can peddle to anyone anymore. The sun is setting on you, and maybe it's time to just watch the sunset from whatever banana republic you're from and fade away.Comment -
Oh, good. Then, at least you should have your facts right. Let's see.
Sorry, mr professional but you are wrong here.And while even if Shakhtar had closed at pck -180 (which they never did, they actually closed at Pinnacle at -0.5 +113, I was on Pinnacle 2 minutes before kickoff. ),
They always do.
Pick em (draw no bet) line is always there since it can be derived from 1X2 lines at any time, whether 0 handicap posted or not.
I thought professionals supposed to know that and not continue to insist that there was no -180 close on DNB market.
But I guess I was wrong. I'll explain then.
Pinnacle 1X2 closed at 112 250 279 That corresponds to DNB -194/+171.
No vig for -194/+171 is +/-179 (close enough).
Sry pro, errrrr again.And there wasn't a bookmaker on earth that was dealing Shakhtar -2
Betfair +625
MarathonBet +690
And, of course, you conveniently let this comment just quietly slide away.
I understand. It's always better to write another "snake oil salesman" poem and use bunch of smilies than get involved in something that can get really embarrassing really fast for such a pro like yourself. I understand.What is another side of this trade? How much can you sell it for? In a market with 16.5% vig you can not even get your money back now. So it was useless at 100 and it is useless at 33. So far at least (i'll give you that).
Although it may look impressive for uninitiated, but in fact all you had and still have is just another horribly overpriced loooooong shot and a couple of bucks on paper.
Getting some sense, or still don't see any?
Well, on a bright side, good english. As always.
P.S.
Please, keep them predictions coming. Don't be shy.
We all want to know the truth.Last edited by hutennis; 10-25-12, 09:01 AM.Comment -
I don't feel the need to acknowledge every single point of such ridiculous dribble, and since I expose you EVERY time as a loser, and having no redeeming qualities in regards to useful or accurate information, it gets tiring, but as a last post if you want me to answer that particular comment, here it goes. You might want to pay attention and you just might learn something.
A.When an entity is bet at a price with an anticipated chance of success of less than 1%, and it's true chances of success are actually between 2-3%, that bet is call POSITIVE EXPECTED VALUE.
B. When a gambler or investor is consistently making positive expected value bets in a regulated and controlled environment of volume and managed allotments to reduce the affects of variance over time, that gambler or investor is highly likely to MAKE A POSITIVE RETURN ON HIS WAGERING VOLUME.
C. Any one outcome or result does not change the fact of a given wagers expectation.
By the way, I know you don't know how to figure hold rates properly (as you showed in one of your posts). But how would you know what hold rate a particular futures pool has when they all differ without knowing the prices? Seems pretty silly to try and posts percentages with no information, wouldn't you say? Here's another concept you might want to try and grasp. In futures markets with multiple entries, the more entries there are, the higher the probability of some of those entries having expected value (which is why they have higher hold rates).
For example, i could offer a prop market such as - What would HU Tennis score on a sanctioned IQ test?
A. Over 150........ 9-1
B. 126-149......... 5-2
C. 101-125......... 8-5
D 100 or less........2-1
Now, even though this has a relatively high hold (9.39) for a 4 entry market, bet D. is a positive expectation wager as it is a price more favorable to the actual event occurring in spite of the overall theoretical hold.
I have $100 on Shakhtar winning it all at 150-1, and another $100 on them at 100-1. I GUARANTEE any decent gambler would love to have that going. And whether I rip those tickets up or not (which I probably will), I have a fun ride coming up, and if I get some luck, I'll make a nice little score like I did with Porto at 33-1 in 2004 (I'm sure you would have considered that bet terrible too) and more important than the money, is the memories. Something a loser like you will never understand.
Would you like a prediction? OK, I'll give you a prediction. Within the next 5 years from today, either someone will kill you (probably gone mad from having to listen to you for an extended period) or you will kill yourself. I'll also add another prediction that in that same 5 year period, you wont get laid.Comment -
great stuff here!
lolComment -
Obviously. BUT. Where did you get an idea that your FIRST $100 wager at 150 to 1 had 2-3% TRUE chances of success?
What made THAT wager positive expected value bet?
After all, for that to be true, those first odds on a one of the most mature, closely watched and difficult to beat markets in a world had to be so grossly mis priced that even huge double digit vig would not make a dent in a tremendous value handed to you on silver plate by sports betting community.
It's just has to be your superior understanding of the world of soccer, right?
Let's take a look at your arguments that in your mind, apparently, gave you right to think so.
Quotes from your Shakhtar post:
1. Shakhtar has a lot of money.
2. Shakhtar is one of the best teams in the world right now.
3. They have depth to boot.
4. As an attacking force, they are as dangerous as can be.
5. They love to attack.
6. They often have Rat and Srna come up from the back
7. They are a fast team with good ball handling skills, and they never play it safe.
WOW!!! Now, that's deep! Amazing insights! Exceptional report! No one in a world could possibly be aware of any of this!
Now, after you let us in on such a closely guarded secrets and priceless inside information, we all realise what a gift horse those 150 to 1 must have been! Stupid bookies practically gave it away out of ignorance.
Exactly!C. Any one outcome or result does not change the fact of a given wagers expectation.
If stupid, square moron decides to burn money on a horrible 5 team parlay and he wins the first leg, he may very well have a +EV on a rest of it. That does not change a thing. He is still stupid square moron. Even if he wins the whole thing, it's not going to magically transform him to a sharp professional. He was, is and will be stupid square moron until and unless he stops making horrible bets to begin with.
I would not hold my breath on it though. Stupid squares just love burning money and they have great motivation for it.
You just gave us that motivation and I doubt anyone can say it better than you did.
Here it is, in all its glory!
Every horrible 5 team parlay ever taken has this reasoning written all over it. Thats for sure.And whether I rip those tickets up or not (which I probably will), I have a fun ride coming up, and if I get some luck, I'll make a nice little score.Last edited by hutennis; 10-26-12, 11:07 AM.Comment -
You give sports markets WAY too much credit. You ask where I got the idea to play them in the first place? I have followed this team very closely for years, and after they decided not to part with anyone during the transfer window, I was ready to fire on this club before the odds even came out, knowing they'd be largely ignored.
My biggest play is for them to advance out of the group stage at +180. That's a huge +EV line. You think every major market is super sharp but that's just not the case. Chelsea and Juventus are big name clubs with big reputations, and it's only normal for a small league power like Shakhtar to be undervalued in a group with them. Remember, bookmakers set the line to reflect public perception as well as true accuracy, which we all know are sometimes different. I thought Shakhtar were equals to Juve and Chelsea from day 1 of the group pairings, and the group schedule only added to their chances of advancing. Since I perceived the 4rth club in the group (Nordsjelland) to have almost no chance to advance, it becomes 3 relatively equal teams fighting for 2 spots, and I'm getting +180 on my investment.
I have found and won great bets in futures markets since 2000. Still remember having the NJ NETS to win the NBA Eastern conference at 40-1 in 2001, Porto to win the CL at 33-1 in 2004, and many other smaller futures winners between 4-1 and 12-1. Every one of these clubs was undervalued, and that happens all the time.
Unlike you, I have made a nice income form poker, sports, and commodities for over 15 years (i paid a lot of vig on Silver and still was able to make a killing a couple years ago). I do other things as well, but my life story is not important. You need to come to grips with the fact that many futures markets have valued entries in them. Bookmakers do not derive the majority of their handle from them, and they are not as razor sharp as you want to believe. Golf futures every week have these available. Baseball, Football, Basketball, Soccer have these every single season.
Why do you think Vegas rips off people with their futures holds in the 40% range? Because they fear over exposure, and only want the suckers. By the way, I've seen 20+ entry futures markets with holds under 10% at some respected online shops. If you really believe a bookmaker has the ability to spread out juice evenly on 20 or more teams in a market, you're mistaken. Some of those entries are going to be overvalued quite a bit, which means some are obviously going to be undervalued.
While I don't play parlays to keep my variance low, any parlay has the ability to be a +ev prop wager just like a straight bet does. And actually, if you're single game selections are +ev, then parlaying them would increase the ROI expectancy, although increasing your variance.
Lets say player A. picks 999 single game match ups that have a 56% chance of winning at -110 (the hold on the bet is 4.54%). Lets say player A bets $100 on 999 of these games and wins his expected 560. He will wager a total of $99,900 and get back $106,909 for a nice return of 7.02% on investment.
Lets say player B uses those same 999 games and decides to play 333 $300 3 team parlays getting +600 on his money (the hold on the bet is 12.5%). If those games have a 56% chance of winning, his expected parlay wins should be 58 out of 333 (.56 x .56 x .56 = .1756). Player B will bet the same volume as player A which is $99,900 , but his expected return would be $121,800 for a return of 21.92%
Now, the parlay has a much higher hold, but the expected return is much higher using the same amount of money and the same amount of the same games. This is maximizing his edge. Now the down side, is naturally, any contest does not always land on its expected number, and your actual win rate is rarely exactly the same as your expected win rate. The lower the volume, the more variance there is. So in these examples, player B also incurs a 5.4% chance of losing money, where player A has only a 1.1% chance. But in this example, the parlay is a higher expectation than the flat bet, even though the hold rate on each bet is much higher.
Granted, finding 1000 56% probability 2 team contests priced at -110 is a little ambitious, but the point is made in the example. Just because a wager has a higher theoretical hold rate does not always mean it's not advantageous to the player.Comment -
Whatever prompted you to change your tone - I appreciate it.
I'm not interested in changing your beliefs and methods - to each his own.
But I will call a bulshit when I see it and will defend my arguments.
I also will continue to give sport markets every credit imaginable. And I will stay very humble.
Not doing so in the environment when almost every participant gets slaughtered is suicidal.
Now this.
"What can be asserted without proof can be dismissed without proof" - this is a great quote and excellent rule to live by.Unlike you, I have made a nice income form poker, sports, and commodities for over 15 years (i paid a lot of vig on Silver and still was able to make a killing a couple years ago). I do other things as well, but my life story is not important.
And since I have no interest in providing any prove to anybody, I don't make any claims either.
But, FWIW, I traded my first future contract in 1993 and the last one in 2010 when I decided that financial markets are not a good place to be anymore. I'm a documented 1.83 BB/100 winner over almost a mil hands of HE. About half of it HU, at meaningful enough stakes.
As far as sports, I don't remember really when I had a losing week, which may be not a big deal considering I involved in it for only a couple of years, but in a world I live in it is a 90% of the battle. Winning is easy. Not losing is hard. And I do have a garage. It attached to a 3 story house on a small lake when I fish largemouth bass.
So, I guess, you may be right here. In some ways you are like me, but in more than one - unlike.
Looks like I broke my rule a little, but that will be an extend of it.
GL and, as they say, peace out.Last edited by hutennis; 10-26-12, 11:45 PM.Comment -
Also, not that I need to go on this any farther, but just out of fairness.
You started with this.
No. I did not asked you that. I don't care about that. It has nothing to do with an argument.You ask where I got the idea to play them in the first place?
It is a nice try obv., lets you take a conversation away from where you may not want to be at the moment,
but ..
What I asked was
There is a world of difference there.Where did you get an idea that your FIRST $100 wager at 150 to 1 had 2-3% TRUE chances of success?
First is usually read like "Wow, please let me know how did you get to be so smart?"
Second is more like "Where the fuk did you get this crap from?"
But, like I said, nice try.
See you around.Last edited by hutennis; 10-27-12, 12:25 PM.Comment
