Question about P-value and null hypothesis

[Inkwell77]

So say if I have a set of data that says I have
335 successes out 587 trials

Now if I assume the likelihood of having a success is .50 (null hypothesis) my p-value for this set of data is
.0007

Obviously a very unlikely event and is considered statistically significant.

But if I reset the likelihood to being .53 (null hypothesis) the p-value then becomes
.0527

The null hypothesis is accepted.


My question is what should one's null hypothesis be when striving to create a model? P(Win)=.55? P(Win)=.56?

Null Hypothesis (Ho):Game; P(Win)=???

[rsigley]

failing to reject doesn't mean accept

[uva3021]

Pick any person out from a population, is the null hypothesis such that their win prob is 50% or 53%? Now if you were selecting from a group of professionals who make a living betting, then the H_0 will be around 53%

[sayhey69]

The null hypothesis is accepted.

wat?!?

[339955]

uh oh inkwell you aer too dumb 4 sayhey you are getting all the pros mad at you. be careful, be right

[sayhey69]

no not pro just paid attention in intro to statistics

[339955]

yeah i know sayhey i like stats too you can use it really good to predict stuff, model others and know about the probabilities and make some models i just wish inkwell would learn from that and not be so ignorant about his p stats

[Inkwell77]

Thanks everyone.
This type of feedback helps.
Obviously I need to look into it more.

[jetsjets1028]

i was in ap stats class

[daneault23]

Majoring in Stats