Fantasy football rankings: running back tiers 🏈
Fantasy football rankings: Eric Karabell's running back tiers
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Most analysts' fantasy football rankings have Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey in the No. 1 overall slot and some combination of the Giants' Saquon Barkley, Cowboys' Ezekiel Elliott and Vikings' Dalvin Cook after that, but this order fails to tell us if the differences in how we value the players is large or rather slight. I believe the answer is slight, that these stars belong in the same area of value, the same tier, if you will. That one is easy. You know what to do at the top of Round 1 and cannot go wrong with any of these four names, right?
OK, so what do you do in Round 6 when one might presume all the running backs and perhaps the wide receivers look, well, kind of the same?
A tiered positional system not only works well for decision-making in fantasy football but, for me, it also lessens the stress, assuming I have properly prepared. In any value game, really, one needs to realize where the drop-offs are in each section, and empirically and definitively, they are there. The goal is to study a set of rankings, whether yours or mine or whatever, and combine players into section groupings that define their perceived value and your interest level in them. Make things easier for yourself!
Here is a hypothetical, which really is not, because you know it is going to happen to you in nearly every draft: Time's a wasting in Round 6 and you see several wide receivers that look the same to you -- the same tier, if you will -- but one running back stands out above the rest of his positional peers. A drop-off looms after this player. By that point, you might be into the flex-eligible portion of the draft, but you still want the best available player. Take the running back, because the value alters sharply after him, but not so much at receiver. Simple, right?
Without further ado, here are one writer's thoughts on the myriad tiers at running back, with a wide receiver file to come soon. Obviously, look at 10 sets of analyst rankings and you will likely find a vastly different order of players, a stark reminder of how subjective all of this is. Perhaps you believe a Tier 8 running back belongs in Tier 5. Well, move him up! These are your drafts, so go with your opinions. The return on investment really can be significant by doing the work in advance, because much gets decided in such a short a time on draft day, so take it seriously.
Tier 1: Top of Round 1
Christian McCaffrey, Panthers
Saquon Barkley, Giants
Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys
Dalvin Cook, Vikings
Notes: No surprise here, as this is the top of my rankings and then come a bunch of wide receivers. I think McCaffrey is the obvious No. 1 pick, so one could fairly remark he belongs in his own very special tier -- and many of us considered this one year ago with Barkley, too -- but nobody thinks he approaches 2,400 total yards or 19 touchdowns again, either. The only real concern in this group is with Cook and his contract situation, but for now, on the surface, all is good enough.
Tier 2: Later Round 1
Alvin Kamara, Saints
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs
Austin Ekeler, Chargers
Notes: Question marks start to show at this volatile position in the first round. Kamara went from 18 touchdowns in 2018 to merely a third of that total in 2019, though he did play through a knee injury. Edwards-Helaire is merely a rookie, but so talented and on exactly the right offense. Ekeler had a monster breakout season, but even while it was happening, few seemed to believe he could sustain it. There remain doubters, though I am not one of them. Why am I confident in these fellows for PPR formats? They catch passes. Many passes. Their statistical floor is high.
Tier 3: Round 2
Nick Chubb, Browns
Derrick Henry, Titans
Aaron Jones, Packers
Joe Mixon, Bengals
Josh Jacobs, Raiders
Miles Sanders, Eagles
Notes: Put simply, find a tier of running backs after the first one in which there are no questions. You can't. Relative youth wins out in this tier, but there are multiple players here a bit too touchdown-dependent (Henry, Jones), and that can be a problem if they are not catching passes (Henry). Still -- and I have tried mocks and real drafts this summer in which I went with two running backs in the first two rounds, and others with two wide receivers and a few with one of each -- I like not being forced to go running back three tiers later. In fact, I don't even rank a running back in Round 3. Huge drop-off!
Tier 4: Round 4
Chris Carson, Seahawks
Melvin Gordon, Broncos
Kenyan Drake, Cardinals
Le'Veon Bell, Jets
Notes: Well, good luck! Gordon joins a new team a year after a contract squabble. Is he the next Bell, who clearly does not fit in perfectly with the Jets? Drake seems beloved, but he has yet to rush for even 650 yards in a season! I seem to be avoiding all these fellows for the rookies in the next tier and might switch these tiers soon.
Tier 5: Rounds 4-5
Jonathan Taylor, Colts
D'Andre Swift, Lions
Devin Singletary, Bills
Notes: The Indy and Detroit coaches keep using words like "open competition" and "time-shares," but I think Taylor and Swift -- not the musician -- are simply too talented for such foolishness. Singletary begins Year 2 with a rookie in his midst as well.
Tier 6: Round 5
Kareem Hunt, Browns
Leonard Fournette, Jaguars
Mark Ingram II, Ravens
Todd Gurley II, Falcons
James Conner, Steelers
Cam Akers, Rams
David Johnson, Texans
Notes: Hunt and Akers might not belong in this tier, because I think we have clarity with them. The others have injury issues or were, flatly in the case of Johnson, mostly underwhelming overall the past few seasons. A year ago I had Fournette and Gurley in their own special tier and look what happened; the former delivered his best season for yards and worst for touchdowns, and the latter found the end zone but lacked volume and yards. Go figure. I do not trust either one, so yeah, Hunt and Akers could move into the next tier before September (and we will update these as news warrants).
Tier 7: Round 6
Raheem Mostert, 49ers
David Montgomery, Bears
Tarik Cohen, Bears
Notes: Mostert is actually a former Bear, so let's call this a Bears Tier. There is certainly a path for Mostert and Montgomery to escape this section and move up a few, but San Francisco boasts a deep backfield and figures to share the touches, while Montgomery probably cannot get the catches we need because Cohen is so dynamic in the open field. Quite the conundrum.
Tier 8: Rounds 8-9
James White, Patriots
J.K. Dobbins, Ravens
Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Buccaneers
Ronald Jones II, Buccaneers
Darrell Henderson Jr., Rams
Jordan Howard, Dolphins
Latavius Murray, Saints
Boston Scott, Eagles
Notes: White has caught 159 passes the past two seasons and yes, there's a new quarterback, but Cam Newton did quite a bit of throwing to his running back in recent seasons, too. Know your scoring format and team depth charts; Miami's Howard is not catching passes. The Bucs have these running backs and LeSean McCoy, who might play a role. Who knows for sure?
Tier 9: Round 9
Kerryon Johnson, Lions
Marlon Mack, Colts
Notes: These gents seem to belong together because the rookies aiming to supplant them feel like they have similar value as well. I am all-in on the rookies, by the way. Mack was better than Johnson was in 2019, for sure, but now each is a backup, no matter what the coach is telling the media about competition.
Tier 10: Rounds 11-12
Tevin Coleman, 49ers
Matt Breida, Dolphins
Antonio Gibson, Washington
Duke Johnson, Texans
Zack Moss, Bills
Phillip Lindsay, Broncos
Nyheim Hines, Colts
Justin Jackson, Chargers
Alexander Mattison, Vikings
Notes: Backups galore here, but there are some upside picks, including the first Washington running back and if Minnesota's Cook decides to sit this one out, Mattison would become an instant RB2, at least.
Tier 11: Round 12
Sony Michel, Patriots
Adrian Peterson, Washington
Notes: If you are not going to catch passes, then you had better be awesome in the other aspects. Neither of these fellows is Derrick Henry, or close to it, but 1,000-yard rushers, perhaps, if their teams turn desperate.
Tier 12: Round 13 and later
Ito Smith, Falcons
Jamaal Williams, Packers
Ryquell Armstead, Jaguars
Joshua Kelley, Chargers
Malcolm Brown, Rams
Rashaad Penny, Seahawks
Tony Pollard, Cowboys
Giovani Bernard, Bengals
Jaylen Samuels, Steelers
Anthony McFarland Jr., Steelers
AJ Dillon, Packers
La'Mical Perine, Jets
Notes: Most people would prefer to secure a rookie or two and see what happens, because rookies have yet to fail at the NFL level and we all like to dream. I think Smith is in a great position because Gurley cannot stay healthy. Armstead could start. Pollard is a prime backup, so is Dillon.
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Most analysts' fantasy football rankings have Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey in the No. 1 overall slot and some combination of the Giants' Saquon Barkley, Cowboys' Ezekiel Elliott and Vikings' Dalvin Cook after that, but this order fails to tell us if the differences in how we value the players is large or rather slight. I believe the answer is slight, that these stars belong in the same area of value, the same tier, if you will. That one is easy. You know what to do at the top of Round 1 and cannot go wrong with any of these four names, right?
OK, so what do you do in Round 6 when one might presume all the running backs and perhaps the wide receivers look, well, kind of the same?
A tiered positional system not only works well for decision-making in fantasy football but, for me, it also lessens the stress, assuming I have properly prepared. In any value game, really, one needs to realize where the drop-offs are in each section, and empirically and definitively, they are there. The goal is to study a set of rankings, whether yours or mine or whatever, and combine players into section groupings that define their perceived value and your interest level in them. Make things easier for yourself!
Here is a hypothetical, which really is not, because you know it is going to happen to you in nearly every draft: Time's a wasting in Round 6 and you see several wide receivers that look the same to you -- the same tier, if you will -- but one running back stands out above the rest of his positional peers. A drop-off looms after this player. By that point, you might be into the flex-eligible portion of the draft, but you still want the best available player. Take the running back, because the value alters sharply after him, but not so much at receiver. Simple, right?
Without further ado, here are one writer's thoughts on the myriad tiers at running back, with a wide receiver file to come soon. Obviously, look at 10 sets of analyst rankings and you will likely find a vastly different order of players, a stark reminder of how subjective all of this is. Perhaps you believe a Tier 8 running back belongs in Tier 5. Well, move him up! These are your drafts, so go with your opinions. The return on investment really can be significant by doing the work in advance, because much gets decided in such a short a time on draft day, so take it seriously.
Tier 1: Top of Round 1
Christian McCaffrey, Panthers
Saquon Barkley, Giants
Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys
Dalvin Cook, Vikings
Notes: No surprise here, as this is the top of my rankings and then come a bunch of wide receivers. I think McCaffrey is the obvious No. 1 pick, so one could fairly remark he belongs in his own very special tier -- and many of us considered this one year ago with Barkley, too -- but nobody thinks he approaches 2,400 total yards or 19 touchdowns again, either. The only real concern in this group is with Cook and his contract situation, but for now, on the surface, all is good enough.
Tier 2: Later Round 1
Alvin Kamara, Saints
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs
Austin Ekeler, Chargers
Notes: Question marks start to show at this volatile position in the first round. Kamara went from 18 touchdowns in 2018 to merely a third of that total in 2019, though he did play through a knee injury. Edwards-Helaire is merely a rookie, but so talented and on exactly the right offense. Ekeler had a monster breakout season, but even while it was happening, few seemed to believe he could sustain it. There remain doubters, though I am not one of them. Why am I confident in these fellows for PPR formats? They catch passes. Many passes. Their statistical floor is high.
Tier 3: Round 2
Nick Chubb, Browns
Derrick Henry, Titans
Aaron Jones, Packers
Joe Mixon, Bengals
Josh Jacobs, Raiders
Miles Sanders, Eagles
Notes: Put simply, find a tier of running backs after the first one in which there are no questions. You can't. Relative youth wins out in this tier, but there are multiple players here a bit too touchdown-dependent (Henry, Jones), and that can be a problem if they are not catching passes (Henry). Still -- and I have tried mocks and real drafts this summer in which I went with two running backs in the first two rounds, and others with two wide receivers and a few with one of each -- I like not being forced to go running back three tiers later. In fact, I don't even rank a running back in Round 3. Huge drop-off!
Tier 4: Round 4
Chris Carson, Seahawks
Melvin Gordon, Broncos
Kenyan Drake, Cardinals
Le'Veon Bell, Jets
Notes: Well, good luck! Gordon joins a new team a year after a contract squabble. Is he the next Bell, who clearly does not fit in perfectly with the Jets? Drake seems beloved, but he has yet to rush for even 650 yards in a season! I seem to be avoiding all these fellows for the rookies in the next tier and might switch these tiers soon.
Tier 5: Rounds 4-5
Jonathan Taylor, Colts
D'Andre Swift, Lions
Devin Singletary, Bills
Notes: The Indy and Detroit coaches keep using words like "open competition" and "time-shares," but I think Taylor and Swift -- not the musician -- are simply too talented for such foolishness. Singletary begins Year 2 with a rookie in his midst as well.
Tier 6: Round 5
Kareem Hunt, Browns
Leonard Fournette, Jaguars
Mark Ingram II, Ravens
Todd Gurley II, Falcons
James Conner, Steelers
Cam Akers, Rams
David Johnson, Texans
Notes: Hunt and Akers might not belong in this tier, because I think we have clarity with them. The others have injury issues or were, flatly in the case of Johnson, mostly underwhelming overall the past few seasons. A year ago I had Fournette and Gurley in their own special tier and look what happened; the former delivered his best season for yards and worst for touchdowns, and the latter found the end zone but lacked volume and yards. Go figure. I do not trust either one, so yeah, Hunt and Akers could move into the next tier before September (and we will update these as news warrants).
Tier 7: Round 6
Raheem Mostert, 49ers
David Montgomery, Bears
Tarik Cohen, Bears
Notes: Mostert is actually a former Bear, so let's call this a Bears Tier. There is certainly a path for Mostert and Montgomery to escape this section and move up a few, but San Francisco boasts a deep backfield and figures to share the touches, while Montgomery probably cannot get the catches we need because Cohen is so dynamic in the open field. Quite the conundrum.
Tier 8: Rounds 8-9
James White, Patriots
J.K. Dobbins, Ravens
Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Buccaneers
Ronald Jones II, Buccaneers
Darrell Henderson Jr., Rams
Jordan Howard, Dolphins
Latavius Murray, Saints
Boston Scott, Eagles
Notes: White has caught 159 passes the past two seasons and yes, there's a new quarterback, but Cam Newton did quite a bit of throwing to his running back in recent seasons, too. Know your scoring format and team depth charts; Miami's Howard is not catching passes. The Bucs have these running backs and LeSean McCoy, who might play a role. Who knows for sure?
Tier 9: Round 9
Kerryon Johnson, Lions
Marlon Mack, Colts
Notes: These gents seem to belong together because the rookies aiming to supplant them feel like they have similar value as well. I am all-in on the rookies, by the way. Mack was better than Johnson was in 2019, for sure, but now each is a backup, no matter what the coach is telling the media about competition.
Tier 10: Rounds 11-12
Tevin Coleman, 49ers
Matt Breida, Dolphins
Antonio Gibson, Washington
Duke Johnson, Texans
Zack Moss, Bills
Phillip Lindsay, Broncos
Nyheim Hines, Colts
Justin Jackson, Chargers
Alexander Mattison, Vikings
Notes: Backups galore here, but there are some upside picks, including the first Washington running back and if Minnesota's Cook decides to sit this one out, Mattison would become an instant RB2, at least.
Tier 11: Round 12
Sony Michel, Patriots
Adrian Peterson, Washington
Notes: If you are not going to catch passes, then you had better be awesome in the other aspects. Neither of these fellows is Derrick Henry, or close to it, but 1,000-yard rushers, perhaps, if their teams turn desperate.
Tier 12: Round 13 and later
Ito Smith, Falcons
Jamaal Williams, Packers
Ryquell Armstead, Jaguars
Joshua Kelley, Chargers
Malcolm Brown, Rams
Rashaad Penny, Seahawks
Tony Pollard, Cowboys
Giovani Bernard, Bengals
Jaylen Samuels, Steelers
Anthony McFarland Jr., Steelers
AJ Dillon, Packers
La'Mical Perine, Jets
Notes: Most people would prefer to secure a rookie or two and see what happens, because rookies have yet to fail at the NFL level and we all like to dream. I think Smith is in a great position because Gurley cannot stay healthy. Armstead could start. Pollard is a prime backup, so is Dillon.
