Nash's 2015 Fantasy Baseball Thread

[stevenash]

Javier Baez needs time in the minors

"He's thinking too much," (Joe) Maddon said. "He's getting a lot of information from all of us and sometimes I think it's our fault. I just want to leave him alone and let him play. I'm not concerned. The guy cares so much."

There's a progression going on with Baez that simply may or may not end well. He struggles, recognizes he needs to make changes and goes about doing so. He drops weight, adjusts his approach and swing but the results don't come right away. Odds are they wouldn't. So now the coaches say they need to back off and just let him play.

"It's a long process," Baez said before Monday's game against the San Diego Padres. "(Yesterday) I was worrying too much about the mechanics so that's why I was completely lost."

It's usually not a good thing when a hitter admits to being completely lost. Of course, strikeouts are nothing new for Baez: He fanned 225 times in 154 games between Triple-A and the majors in 2014. His strikeout rate was so prodigious in the majors -- 95 in 229 plate appearances, that give him a season's worth of 650 PAs and you'd have 270 strikeouts, a pace that would shatter Mark Reynolds' major league record of 223 set in 2009.

Baez is only 22 and I guess that Reynolds season is what Cubs' fans can dream on: At age 25, Reynolds hit .260/.349/.543 with 44 home runs. Imagine that production from a second baseman.

The trouble is, that season came in 2009, the last before the strike zone got bigger and offense plummeted. Reynolds never came close to those numbers again. Since 2010, he's hit .212/.316/.430 for five different clubs and signed with the Cardinals this year, where he projects as a platoon first baseman and bench player.

Overall, Reynolds' value has been minimal, in part because he was an error-prone third baseman and now as a first baseman, a .212/.316/.430 line isn't that useful.

Can Baez, who hit .169 in 52 games with the Cubs, turn into a second-base version of Reynolds? Here's a chart comparing Reynolds from 2010-2014 to Baez's initial stint in the majors:

Reynolds	31.30%	12.20%	0.218	46.00%	35.90%	24.60%
Baez	41.50%	6.50%	0.155	46.80%	43.70%	38.50%

As you can see, he has a long ways to go just to match Reynolds, let alone be better. Even when he did connect, his Isolated Power was lower than Reynolds' mark. (Baez hit nine home runs in 213 at-bats, but just six doubles.) The one thing Reynolds has done, even while hitting .212, is draw walks to at least boost his OBP over .300 despite the terrible averages. Baez's problem isn't just the swing-and-miss issues that Reynolds has but swinging and missing at pitches that aren't strikes. As long as he continues chase balls out of the zone he'll struggle to hit .200.

Again, however, he's young, and he has a history of scuffling at each new level before figuring things out. Still, his walk rates have never been strong:

2013, Class A/Double-A: 6.9 percent
2014, Triple-A: 7.8 percent

Again, however: When Reynolds was 21, he was in the Midwest League and had a walk rate of 7.6 percent; Baez reached the majors at 21.

Considering the hype Baez has generated coming up, Cubs fans may be depressed seeing him compared to Mark Reynolds. Having Maddon around should be a plus -- "As we continue along I think you’re going to start to see him make his adjustments and become more comfortable," he said. "He's applying a little pressure on himself right now. I'm really not worried. I've been around guys like him before. He needs to play and relax."

The Cubs have other options at second base in Tommy La Stella and Arismendy Alcantara. Plus, once Addison Russell is ready to take over at shortstop, Starlin Castro may have to move over to second. Are the Cubs better off sending Baez down so he can have some success and learn to better control the strike zone, or is there an urgency to see what he can do now in the majors before the Kris Bryant/Russell/Castro infield pushes him out of a spot? There's also the chance he grows bored at a level he's already had success at.

It's not an easy decision for the Cubs. We have all spring training to see what kind of adjustments he makes, but right now it's looking like more of the same as last year, which means he's not ready for the majors. I'd start him in the minors and make him prove he can make better contact before giving him another chance.

[Andy117]

I'd be surprised to see Baez really turn into a good MLB hitter.

[stevenash]

^
The three of them (Soler and Bryant) are all hit or miss swingers.
Think Dave Kingman.
i wish them well, new blood in baseball is always a good thing, but right now, they are a strike out pitcher wet dream.

NL Central pitchers like Cueto that play the Cubs 16 or 17 times a season, will achieve double digit K's

[stevenash]

More random notes

Cleveland Indians


Gavin Floyd and the #5 Spot - Floyd experienced some pain in his throwing elbow but was able to long toss yesterday (Sunday) without suffering any more of a setback. This is even more troubling for Floyd because last season he suffered a broken elbow, and has already undergone Tommy John surgery two years ago. Right now, Floyd is being penciled in as the #4 starter and the team is optimistic that he won't need more than just a little time off. Right now he's not draftable as we don't know yet how he will return after last year's elbow injury. With the Braves in 2014, he went 2-2 with a 2.69 ERA with a FIP of nearly a run higher over 54.1 innings. One positive trend for Floyd was he has seen a 2% increase in his swinging strike rate over the past two seasons, jumping from 9.8% in 2012 to over 11% in both 2013-14. Now granted he has only thrown less than 80 innings combined over those two years so it is a small sample size, but it's still an interesting stat to monitor.


Danny Salazar, Is this the year? - I'll admit it. I bit on the Salazar hype train and got burned pretty hard on it when he got sent to the minors midway through the season. Now he enters 2015 competing for the number five spot in the rotation, one that he likely would be the most talented pitch to fill. His first outing was filled with ups and downs as he allowed three runs in two innings but was able to strike out four. When looking at the final stat lines for Salazar in 2013 and '14, you see that he was a very similar pitcher when you see the big picture. Both years he had over 9 K/9 with a sub 3 BB/9, a mid-30% GB rate, and a reasonable FIP. The differences? His BABIP jumped nearly 50 points and his strand rate fell 12%, leading more baserunners who ultimately came around to score. Now that the hype has died down, he could be a nice sleeper option if he is able to make the Indians rotation.


Houston Astros


Closing Time, Who gets the last inning for Houston to start the year? It's unknown who is in the driver seat for the 9th inning spot, but it seems like any of Chad Qualls, Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek, and Josh Fields may get a chance at nailing down the job. Qualls led the team in saves in 2014 with 19 with almost 8 strikeouts per walk with a 3.13 FIP. With those numbers, I'd guess that Qualls likely will be the leader but Fields notched four saves and struck out almost 12 batters per nine. While Fields' ERA left quite a bit to be desired at 4.45, his FIP was over two runs lower at 2.09. He was a bit lucky though with just a 31% GB rate but also turning in a HR/FB% of just 2.9%. Gregerson notched three saves with the A's in 2014, posting a 3.24 FIP over 72.1 innings. He had the highest SWST% of the four candidates at 13%, giving him a leg up on the other options. Lastly we have Neshek who was the best pitcher of the four last year in terms of WAR, posting a 9 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio and a sub 2.40 FIP. With no way to know for certain, here's my ROUGH rankings of the four and their pecking order for 2015: Qualls, Neshek, Gregerson, Fields. But let's face it, you probably aren't drafting any of these guys anyways.


Jonathan Singleton off to hot start this spring - Singleton was terrible, scratch that, abysmal in his time in the majors posting a .283 wOBA and striking out at a rate somehow worse than teammate George Springer. He has come into 2015 without a clear starting spot in the Astros lineup and is playing that way as he has gotten off to a hot start. He's hit to the tune of a .500 average and four of his five hits have been doubles, while striking out and walking twice each. Singleton will never be a low strikeout guy but he does have a significantly better track record than the 31% he posted last year. A sign that bodes well for Singleton in 2015 is he did not chase many pitches in 2014, so if he is able to increase his contact rate he could climb closer to his minor league track record. He's someone to watch over the rest of spring, but he could still start the season in the minors after all the Astros' new acquisitions.

[stevenash]

Eight players who were once first round/$30 commodities. Thanks to age and injury, these former stars have dropped on most draft rankings lists. Some are still hanging on in the second round; others have fallen so far that they're barely in the top 100.
The eight players are Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Carlos Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto and Dustin Pedroia.

It's interesting to see the evolution of the decline. As recently as last year, four of these eight were still ranked in the first round. Five were there in 2013, and six of the eight in both 2012 and 2011. It tails off if we go back any further. Kemp and Pedroia are the only ones who weren't consistent members of the top 15.

But the question now is, what do we do with these guys? We can't dismiss them, because "once you display a skill, you own it." But we also can't draft them at the full value of what they are capable of producing. Nobody is paying $30 for any of these guys in 2015.
Most fantasy leaguers are just hedging. That's how you get Tulo ranked at #16, Hanley at #24, Braun at #26, Kemp at #41, CarGo at #47, Pujols at #52, Votto at #74 and Pedroia at #98. And it's no surprise that you can find a direct correlation between these ADPs and just how long it's been since these players posted productive numbers.

Yes, injuries have played a part, but players can get better. Age should be hardly a concern at all; every one of these players is either 30 or 31, except for Pujols at 35 and CarGo at 29. Guys like Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are not getting any ADP discount just because they are in their mid-30s. Forget about how old these guys are.

So you have to think, if these guys are healthy, they could potentially still earn first round value.

But you don't have to pay for it. Selecting them at around their average draft position (ADP), or at a roto dollar discount, means you get to own whatever profit they might provide. At the same time, you incur the risk that they might go completely belly up, which is the fear that feeds the discount in the first place. Truth is, that rarely happens. All of these guys have always provided some value so long as you acquired them at the right price.

But surprisingly, you still might be able to use some of them as building blocks.

If you assume that you're not going to get more than 350 or 400 at bats out of any of these players -- and the marketplace agrees -- then your purchase price will reflect that, as it currently is. That also means you'll get the opportunity to backfill the missing at bats with another player.

The question then becomes, how lucrative is that pool of replacement players? What caliber of free agent will be available when one of these guys goes down in July? The answer to these questions will shape your decision for where to invest.

Typically, guys like Tulowitzki, Ramirez and Pedroia would be too risky because there are rarely any decent middle infielders available during the season. For Pujols and Votto, not too many corner infield options either. But outfielders Braun, Kemp and Gonzalez could be more desirable, I'd think. At least if past tendencies hold.

[Otters27]

Tulo might be passed his prime. hopefully this is the year that he stays healthy

[stevenash]

Yu Darvish- P- TEX- Darvish has a tear in his UCL. The most likely route will be Tommy John surgery. Even if he tries to go for rest and rehab he wouldn't be able to pitch in a game for at least 4 months. Then there would be no guarantee that he wouldn't need surgery at that point. Scratch Darvish from your draft sheets for 2015.


Ross Detwiler- P- TEX- With the news about Darvish, Detwiler's role changes from one of several competing for the fifth starter spot to the likely #4 man in the Texas rotation. He pitched exclusively in relief for the Nationals last year after being primarily a starter. Detwiler had experienced good fortune his first couple of seasons in MLB, with ERAs below 4.00 and FIPs above that mark. This reversed in 2013, during an injury hampered season. In his initial year as a reliever he had a minor bump from good luck, with an ERA of 4.00 and FIP of 4.16. After a dip in 2013 Detwiler's K/9 rose back to 5.57, more in line with his previous career numbers . His BB/9 rose to 3.00, again more in line with what he had done prior to his injury season. Detwiler had what the Rangers felt was a promising outing on Saturday, with a run allowed in 2-2/3 IP on 4 hits, with 2 Ks and no walks. One factor that may indicate some improvement is in store for Detwiler is that his road performance has actually been better than his record in pitcher-friendly Nationals Park. Still, despite his situation that he is almost guaranteed a rotation spot, even if the Rangers swing a deal for another starter, Detwiler projects to mediocre numbers.
Still in the nest
With the departures via free agency of Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis, the Orioes have some serious outfield holes to fill as they attempt to defend their AL East championships. The leading candidates don't have the pedigree of Cruz and Markakis.


Alejandro De Aza- OF- BAL- De Aza arrived in Baltimore at the trade deadline last season and made an immediate impression. He hit .293 (with the help of a .341 BABIP) with 3 homers in 89 PAs for the Orioles. 2014 was a bit of a down year for De Aza, who had swiped at least 20 bases and hit at least 9 homers in each of the previous two seasons with the White Sox. Because of his speed, De Aza's BABIP with the Orioles was not that far from his career norm and the .309 mark he had in Chicago before the trade was more of an outlier. De Aza will be a defensive upgrade in left field over Nelson Cruz and while that doesn't translate directly into fantasy value it does give De Aza a firmer position in retaining that job even through some slumps. With a full time position still his, he will likely increase his batting average while staying near his production in homers and steals, which is not bad.


Travis Snider- OF- BAL- Snider came over from Pittsburgh in the offseason and is the leading candidate to get the bulk of the playing time in right field. The left hander hit 13 homers in 359 PAs. Only 4 of them were at home in PNC Park, which ranked 20th in the majors in homers by lefties. Camden Yards was 7th in that category last year so Snider could provide a decent boost in the homer category.
Everything old is new again
In Milwaukee one of the questions heading into camp was who would replace Francisco Rodriguez in the closer role. The odds on favorite was Jonathan Broxton (absent a trade to get another Jonathan (Papelbon.) However the answer for who was going to replace KRod ends up being none other than KRod himself.


Francisco Rodriguez- RP- MIL- KRod has ended up where he was last year before testing free agency waters. As they did last spring, the Brewers made him a late signing. In 2014 Rodriguez saved 44 the most he had since 2008. This was despite missing a good deal of spring training after stepping on a cactus. KRod had a very heavy workload early in the season, pitching at least 11 IP in each of the first 3 months. He seemed to wear out a bit, not throwing more than 9-1/3 IP in any of the last 3 months and posting a FIP of 6.35 in the second half after a first half number of 3.57. His K/9 dropped from 10.32 to 8.34. KRod will come out of spring training in the closer role but how long he can keep it will depend on whether he can duplicate the somewhat unlikely success he had out of the gate last year.


Rob Wooten- RP- MIL- A dark horse in the race for closer before KRod was resigned, Wooten saved 14 games in 21 appearances at AAA Nashville last year mixed in among 40 appearances for the Brewers. As is often the case with the small sample size of relievers, Wooten's ERA and FIP were quite different at both the AAA and major league level. He posted an ERA of 5.82 at Nashville with an FIP of 3.19 while is Milwaukee ERA of 4.72 was far above his FIP of 2.61. Despite not being a power pitcher, Wooten managed a K/9 of 8.72 in AAA and 7.60 with the Brewers. Given the questions marks surrounding Broxton's ability to close any more, if KRod falters, Wooten may be the go to option to close games.


Cole Hamels- P- PHI- The Rangers had reportedly agreed on a package of prospects to move from
Texas to Philadelphia in exchange for Hamels during the offseason. However the deal fell apart when an agreement couldn't be reached on how much of Hamels' remaining contract would be carried by the Phillies. With the Yu Darvish move the Rangers may be willing to shell out more money to acquire Hamels.


Cliff Lee- P- PHI- Lee will miss his next scheduled spring start with elbow soreness. It's in the same spot that caused him to be shut down for the season last July, so there are worries. It also drastically reduces the chances, at least in the short term, that Lee will be traded from the Phillies. One potential trading partner that had already been ruled out was the Rangers. Lee reportedly didn't want to return to the team he helped to the World Series because he doesn't like the heat. He has a no trade clause so could veto a deal to Texas.


Lance Lynn- P- STL- Lynn left yesterday's game after failing to get an out in his second inning of work. He was diagnosed with a hip flexor strain. It is not expected to be serious although he will be evaluated today. This may have an impact on the way the St. Louis starters line up for the first week of the regular season. If Lynn can't make his scheduled 5 Grapefruit League starts he may not be available to pitch in the first or second game when things start to count. He was a possible Opening Day starter, depending on the status of Adam Wainwright.


Masahiro Tanaka- P- NYA- Tanaka will make his first Grapefruit League start on Thursday. This, and all other spring training action he takes part in, will be watched very closely. Especially since the bad news about Yu Darvish, who didn't have as severe an injury to end his season last year, there will be a collective breath holding until Tanaka proves that his course of rest and rehab has made his elbow healthy. Until then, the specter of Tommy John surgery will hover over him.


C. C. Sabathia- P- NYA- Sabathia threw live batting practice yesterday, tossing 29 pitches and reporting no problems. He will probably make his first Grapefruit League appearance in about a week. Between now and then Sabathia is planning to toss 2 innings of a simulated game. He is on track to be in the Yankees' rotation at the start of the regular season.


Troy Tulowitzki- SS- COL- Tulowitzki could be making his Cactus League debut today. He was shut down due to hip surgery last July. He will be watched closely to see if his hip impacts a swing that has resulted in at least 21 homers in every season where he has played at least 90 games since 2009.


Carlos Gonzalez- OF- COL- CarGo is slated to make his Cactus League debut today after another injury-shortened season. He had another go round of knee issues in 2014, with patella tendon surgery ending his season. He also dealt with a benign tumor on his finger that caused him to lose time. If Gonzalez could stay healthy he has the potential to end up in elite territory. He has become the definition of a high risk, high reward fantasy player.


Charlie Blackmon- OF- COL- Blackmon has yet to make his Cactus League debut but that should change in the next couple of days. He has been suffering from minor abdominal tightness. This shouldn't interfere with his quest to build on 2014, the first season he was a full time starter. Blackmon is a decent bet to be in the 20/20 club before the season is over.


Chris Young- P- KC- Young signed with the Royals over the weekend. Despite having made 1 relief appearance in a total of 189 major league games, Young is slated for the Kansas City bullpen. Not just the bullpen, but the all-but-fantasy-irrelevant role of middle to long reliever. Young posted a 3.65 ERA to go with a 12-9 record for Seattle last year but his FIP of 5.02 shows that his comeback was a mirage.


Franklin Gutierrez- OF- SEA- Gutierrez is attempting to make a comeback and try to regain the form that saw him reach double digits in homers and steals in 2009-2010. The chances of him pulling a Steve Pearce and busting out again at over 30 years of age suffered a setback as Gutierrez left Saturday's game with a right groin muscle. His chances of being a sleeper took a significant hit as he will be sidelined for several days.

[stevenash]

Joey Votto

Joey Votto had an injury plagued 2014 season. His quad injury never seemed to heal up and forced him to the DL. Votto only played in 62 games, but is expected to be completely healthy during spring camp. The injury was to his back leg, which is extremely important for hitters, especially for someone who hits to all fields like Votto. He has drawn a ton of criticism from Reds fans for his approach at the plate. Votto does not go out of the zone regardless of whether there are men on base or not and from a $200 million player, the fans expect more. Votto has stated that he is not going to change his approach and this has implications for fantasy owners. You can expect a high .OBP and BA, but his RBI production is going to suffer. He will score runs by being on base a ton and will hit in the neighborhood of 20-25 homeruns and drive in 80-85 runs. This will put him as a top 10 first baseman

[stevenash]

Undervalued Hitters

ECR - Experts Consensus
ADP - Average Draft Position

HITTERS	ECR	ADP	Diff.
Matt Davidson (CWS, 3B)	392	855	463
Alex Presley (HOU, LF,CF,RF)	574	874	300
Brian Bogusevic (MIA, LF,CF,RF)	592	879	287
Eric Sogard (OAK, 2B,SS)	550	777	227
Yoan Moncada (BOS, 3B)	346	567	221
Darin Ruf (PHI, 1B,LF)	373	592	219
Nate Schierholtz (WSH, RF)	625	830	205
Jonny Gomes (ATL, LF,RF)	517	712	195
Junior Lake (CHC, LF,CF)	571	762	191
Aaron Hicks (MIN, CF)	451	638	187
Hector Olivera (2B)	325	507	182
Jake Smolinski (TEX, LF,RF,3B)	514	695	181
Ryan Ludwick (CIN, LF)	599	775	176
Nate Freiman (OAK, 1B)	893	1064	171
Jason Hursh (P)	895	1065	170
Rob Brantly (CWS, C)	902	1066	164
Ryan Raburn (CLE, LF,RF,DH)	904	1067	163
Chris Denorfia (CHC, LF,CF,RF)	563	721	158
Bryan Holaday (DET, C)	912	1068	156
Ezequiel Carrera (TOR, CF,LF)	917	1069	152
Ryan Lavarnway (BAL, 1B,C)	919	1070	151
Austin Romine (NYY, C)	922	1072	150
Erik Kratz (KC, C)	923	1073	150
Cameron Rupp (PHI, C)	921	1071	150
Francisco Pena (KC, C)	925	1074	149
Jeff Francoeur (SD, RF)	931	1077	146
Steve Clevenger (BAL, C)	929	1075	146
Ryan Goins (TOR, 2B,SS)	930	1076	146
Phil Gosselin (ATL, 2B,3B,SS)	934	1078	144
Jace Peterson (ATL, 2B,3B,SS)	562	705	143
Justin Smoak (TOR, 1B)	349	491	142
Brett Hayes (KC, C)	937	1079	142
Ryan Sweeney (CHC, LF,CF,RF)	939	1080	141
Robbie Grossman (HOU, LF,RF,CF)	527	667	140
Josh Thole (TOR, C)	941	1081	140
Johnny Giavotella (LAA, 2B)	942	1082	140
Adrian Nieto (CWS, C)	948	1083	135
Wil Nieves (PHI, C)	949	1084	135
Cody Stanley (STL, C)	952	1086	134
Hernan Perez (DET, 2B)	951	1085	134
Chris Gimenez (CLE, C,1B)	955	1087	132
Drew Butera (LAA, C)	960	1088	128
Curt Casali (TB, C)	963	1091	128
Michael Ohlman (STL, C)	961	1089	128
Tyler Collins (DET, RF)	967	1092	125
Gerald Laird (ATL, C)	970	1093	123
Sandy Leon (WSH, C)	971	1094	123
Kevan Smith (CWS, C)	973	1095	122
Tucker Barnhart (CIN, C)	976	1097	121
Andrew Romine (DET, 2B,SS)	975	1096	121
Andy Dirks (TOR, LF,CF)	977	1098	121
Cesar Hernandez (PHI, 2B,3B,CF)	980	1099	119
Ike Davis (OAK, 1B)	378	494	116
Lonnie Chisenhall (CLE, 1B,3B)	255	371	116
Corey Brown (BOS, RF,LF)	987	1102	115
Jeff Mathis (MIA, C)	986	1101	115
Tim Federowicz (SD, C)	985	1100	115
Dayan Viciedo (CWS, LF,RF)	328	443	115
Ryan Wheeler (COL, 3B,1B)	989	1103	114
Tommy Joseph (PHI, C,1B)	991	1105	114
Yunel Escobar (WSH, SS)	385	499	114
Gary Sanchez (NYY, C)	990	1104	114
Jose Constanza (ATL, LF)	994	1106	112
Trayce Thompson (CWS, CF)	996	1107	111
Koyie Hill (PHI, C)	998	1108	110
Skip Schumaker (CIN, 2B,LF,CF,RF)	1000	1109	109
Stefen Romero (SEA, LF,RF)	1002	1111	109
Hunter Morris (MIL, 1B)	1001	1110	109
Jonathan Singleton (HOU, 1B)	321	430	109
David DeJesus (TB, LF,DH)	680	788	108
Freddy Galvis (PHI, 3B,SS)	556	663	107
Hank Conger (HOU, C)	428	529	101
Logan Morrison (SEA, 1B,RF)	330	428	98
Justin Ruggiano (SEA, LF,CF,RF)	565	659	94
Domonic Brown (PHI, LF)	295	389	94
Kendrys Morales (KC, 1B,DH)	297	390	93
Jose Iglesias (DET, 3B,SS)	390	482	92
Adam Lind (MIL, 1B,DH)	231	321	90
Gordon Beckham (CWS, 2B,3B)	629	718	89
Rob Refsnyder (NYY, 2B)	609	698	89
Mark Reynolds (STL, 1B,3B)	363	451	88
Maikel Franco (PHI, 3B)	369	457	88
Jose Peraza (ATL, SS,2B)	322	407	85
Wilmer Flores (NYM, 2B,SS)	340	422	82
Torii Hunter (MIN, RF)	176	255	79
David Peralta (ARI, LF,CF,RF)	333	411	78
Everth Cabrera (BAL, SS)	310	387	77
Allen Craig (BOS, 1B,LF,RF)	320	396	76
Coco Crisp (OAK, CF)	193	265	72
Aaron Hill (ARI, 2B,3B)	279	350	71
Jake Lamb (ARI, 3B)	380	450	70
Alejandro De Aza (BAL, LF,CF)	312	381	69
Carlos Sanchez (CWS, 2B)	658	727	69
Nick Franklin (TB, 2B,SS)	418	486	68
Travis Snider (BAL, LF,RF)	337	404	67
DJ LeMahieu (COL, 2B)	360	426	66
Norichika Aoki (SF, RF)	318	383	65
Chris Young (NYY, LF,CF,RF)	606	670	64
Michael Saunders (TOR, CF,RF,LF)	302	366	64
Dexter Fowler (CHC, CF)	266	329	63
Michael Bourn (CLE, CF)	313	374	61
Brandon Barnes (COL, LF,RF,CF)	676	737	61
Nick Castellanos (DET, 3B)	259	320	61
Desmond Jennings (TB, CF)	230	290	60
Jed Lowrie (HOU, SS)	303	362	59
Yonder Alonso (SD, 1B)	377	436	59
Brandon Belt (SF, 1B)	138	197	59
Brad Miller (SEA, 2B,SS)	335	392	57
Austin Jackson (SEA, CF)	179	234	55
Nick Swisher (CLE, 1B,DH)	423	477	54
Arismendy Alcantara (CHC, 2B,CF)	261	314	53
Kennys Vargas (MIN, 1B,DH)	250	303	53
Trevor Plouffe (MIN, 3B)	288	340	52
Eric Hosmer (KC, 1B)	124	174	50
James Loney (TB, 1B)	332	382	50
Alex Avila (DET, C)	371	421	50
Garrett Jones (NYY, 1B,RF)	415	464	49
Nick Markakis (ATL, RF)	229	278	49
Kevin Kiermaier (TB, CF,RF)	384	433	49
Khris Davis (MIL, LF)	165	214	49
Billy Butler (OAK, 1B,DH)	226	275	49
Brandon Guyer (TB, LF,CF,RF)	662	707	45
Jedd Gyorko (SD, 2B)	214	259	45
Carlos Ruiz (PHI, C)	368	413	45
Chris Owings (ARI, 2B,SS)	291	334	43
Colby Rasmus (HOU, CF)	343	386	43
Angel Pagan (SF, CF)	282	325	43
Brett Gardner (NYY, LF,CF)	103	144	41
Carlos Beltran (NYY, RF,DH)	221	262	41
Jayson Werth (WSH, RF)	119	160	41
Mike Napoli (BOS, 1B)	213	252	39
Mitch Moreland (TEX, 1B,DH)	444	483	39
Scooter Gennett (MIL, 2B)	241	280	39
Carl Crawford (LAD, LF)	207	246	39
John Jaso (TB, C,DH)	309	347	38
C.J. Cron (LAA, 1B,DH)	362	399	37
Marlon Byrd (CIN, RF)	192	228	36
Marcell Ozuna (MIA, LF,CF,RF)	89	125	36
Oswaldo Arcia (MIN, RF)	200	236	36
Adam Eaton (CWS, CF)	190	226	36
Justin Morneau (COL, 1B)	145	180	35
Lorenzo Cain (KC, CF,RF)	174	209	35
Andre Ethier (LAD, LF,CF,RF)	389	424	35
Howie Kendrick (LAD, 2B)	130	164	34
Ender Inciarte (ARI, LF,CF)	410	444	34
Juan Lagares (NYM, CF)	357	391	34
Mark Teixeira (NYY, 1B)	269	302	33
Rajai Davis (DET, LF,CF)	216	248	32
Alex Gordon (KC, LF)	71	103	32
Seth Smith (SEA, LF,RF)	398	429	31
Erick Aybar (LAA, SS)	177	207	30
Chase Utley (PHI, 2B)	170	200	30
Chase Headley (NYY, 1B,3B)	225	253	28
Wil Myers (SD, RF)	164	191	27
Leonys Martin (TEX, CF)	141	168	27
Alex Rios (KC, RF)	140	166	26
J.J. Hardy (BAL, SS)	235	261	26
Kole Calhoun (LAA, RF)	75	100	25
Drew Stubbs (COL, CF)	355	380	25
Matt Adams (STL, 1B)	134	159	25
Randal Grichuk (STL, RF,LF)	518	542	24
Jake Marisnick (HOU, CF,RF)	412	435	23
Shin-Soo Choo (TEX, LF,RF,CF,DH)	148	171	23
Steven Souza (TB, RF)	220	241	21
Lucas Duda (NYM, 1B)	131	152	21
Brett Lawrie (OAK, 2B,3B)	237	258	21
Aramis Ramirez (MIL, 3B)	189	210	21
Shane Victorino (BOS, RF)	308	328	20

[Wrigley]

C. C. Sabathia expecting a down season from him

[stevenash]

Undervalued Pitchers

PITCHERS	ECR	ADP	Diff.
Carlos Martinez (STL, SP,RP)	299	854	555
Todd Redmond (TOR, RP)	407	856	449
J.J. Hoover (CIN, RP)	430	857	427
Jerry Blevins (WSH, RP)	454	858	404
George Kontos (SF, RP)	455	859	404
Justin Grimm (CHC, RP)	464	860	396
Oliver Perez (ARI, RP)	445	836	391
Stolmy Pimentel (PIT, RP)	479	861	382
Craig Stammen (WSH, RP)	450	819	369
Robbie Ross (BOS, SP,RP)	494	862	368
Joshua Fields (HOU, RP)	440	790	350
Kirby Yates (TB, RP)	521	863	342
T.J. McFarland (BAL, RP)	525	864	339
Carter Capps (MIA, RP)	449	785	336
Evan Scribner (OAK, RP)	536	865	329
Steve Delabar (TOR, RP)	538	866	328
Drew Rucinski (LAA, RP)	543	867	324
Justin Wilson (NYY, RP)	545	868	323
Alexander Torres (SD, RP)	547	869	322
Cesar Ramos (LAA, SP,RP)	552	870	318
Nick Hagadone (CLE, RP)	557	871	314
Fernando Abad (OAK, RP)	510	822	312
Tommy Kahnle (COL, RP)	564	872	308
Zeke Spruill (BOS, RP)	573	873	300
Brad Brach (BAL, RP)	411	709	298
Chad Bettis (COL, RP)	577	875	298
Esmil Rogers (NYY, RP)	579	876	297
Brandon Maurer (SD, SP,RP)	508	804	296
Jim Henderson (MIL, RP)	532	828	296
Buddy Carlyle (NYM, RP)	584	877	293
Bryan Morris (MIA, RP)	530	818	288
Shawn Tolleson (TEX, RP)	493	780	287
Dustin McGowan (LAD, SP,RP)	591	878	287
Jeff Beliveau (TB, RP)	594	880	286
Shawn Kelley (SD, RP)	448	732	284
Burch Smith (TB, SP,RP)	597	881	284
Fernando Salas (LAA, RP)	528	811	283
Matt Barnes (BOS, RP)	600	882	282
Jason Frasor (KC, RP)	601	883	282
Matt Belisle (STL, RP)	602	884	282
Daniel Webb (CWS, RP)	603	885	282
Sam Freeman (STL, RP)	608	886	278
Manny Parra (CIN, RP)	610	887	277
Boone Logan (COL, RP)	611	888	277
Tyler Thornburg (MIL, RP)	615	889	274
Eric Stults (SD, SP)	616	890	274
Vinnie Pestano (LAA, RP)	617	891	274
Ryan Webb (BAL, RP)	619	892	273
Steven Wright (BOS, RP)	621	893	272
Ernesto Frieri (TB, RP)	472	743	271
Burke Badenhop (CIN, RP)	624	894	270
Mario Hollands (PHI, RP,SP)	628	895	267
Will Harris (HOU, RP)	630	896	266
Brandon Workman (BOS, SP,RP)	633	897	264
Blaine Hardy (DET, RP)	634	898	264
Carlos Frias (LAD, RP)	635	899	264
Matt Stites (ARI, RP)	636	900	264
Samuel Deduno (HOU, SP,RP)	637	901	264
Maikel Cleto (CWS, RP)	640	902	262
Jesse Crain (HOU, RP)	641	903	262
Nick Martinez (TEX, SP,RP)	643	904	261
Yimi Garcia (LAD, RP)	644	905	261
Louis Coleman (KC, RP)	645	906	261
Tim Stauffer (MIN, SP,RP)	647	907	260
Franklin Morales (COL, SP,RP)	649	908	259
Brian Duensing (MIN, RP)	650	909	259
Marc Rzepczynski (CLE, RP)	652	910	258
Ryan Buchter (ATL, RP)	653	911	258
Ethan Martin (PHI, RP)	656	912	256
James Russell (ATL, RP)	659	913	254
Tony Sipp (HOU, RP)	470	720	250
Chris Young (KC, SP)	666	914	248
Robert Wooten (MIL, RP)	668	915	247
Randy Choate (STL, RP)	671	916	245
Wesley Wright (BAL, RP)	677	917	240
Pedro Baez (LAD, RP)	679	918	239
John Holdzkom (PIT, RP)	513	751	238
Phil Coke (CHC, RP)	682	919	237
Sam LeCure (CIN, RP)	683	920	237
Chris Rusin (COL, RP)	684	921	237
Jake Buchanan (HOU, RP)	685	922	237
Rob Scahill (PIT, RP)	687	923	236
Anthony Varvaro (BOS, RP)	688	924	236
Brooks Brown (COL, RP)	689	925	236
Blake Parker (CHC, RP)	691	926	235
Brandon Kintzler (MIL, RP)	692	927	235
Roman Mendez (TEX, RP)	693	928	235
Juan Carlos Oviedo (TB, RP)	696	929	233
Caleb Thielbar (MIN, RP)	697	930	233
Joel Hanrahan (DET, RP)	698	931	233
Sam Dyson (MIA, RP)	699	932	233
Jose Dominguez (TB, RP)	702	933	231
Javy Guerra (CWS, RP)	703	934	231
Michael Tonkin (MIN, RP)	704	935	231
Ian Krol (DET, RP)	705	936	231
Chad Jenkins (TOR, RP)	706	937	231
Carlos Torres (NYM, RP)	452	682	230
Casey Sadler (PIT, RP)	708	938	230
Robbie Ray (ARI, SP,RP)	709	939	230
Josh Edgin (NYM, RP)	710	940	230
Tom Gorzelanny (DET, RP)	711	941	230
Kevin Chapman (HOU, RP)	712	942	230
Dan Jennings (CWS, RP)	713	943	230
Leonel Campos (SD, RP)	714	944	230
Nick Greenwood (STL, RP)	715	945	230
Chad Smith (OAK, RP)	716	946	230
Carlos Contreras (CIN, RP)	717	947	230
Erik Cordier (SF, RP)	718	948	230
Michael Mariot (KC, RP)	719	949	230
Nate Jones (CWS, RP)	720	950	230
Alexander Claudio (TEX, RP)	721	951	230
Arquimedes Caminero (PIT, RP)	722	952	230
Josh Zeid (DET, RP)	723	953	230
Javier Lopez (SF, RP)	724	954	230
Jared Burton (MIN, RP)	725	955	230
Dan Coulombe (LAD, RP)	726	956	230
Edwin Escobar (BOS, RP)	727	957	230
Pedro Villarreal (CIN, RP)	728	958	230
Andy Oliver (PHI, SP)	729	959	230
Lucas Luetge (SEA, RP)	731	960	229
Alex White (HOU, SP)	732	961	229
Xavier Cedeno (WSH, RP)	733	962	229
Luis Avilan (ATL, RP)	735	963	228
C.C. Lee (CLE, RP)	736	964	228
Kevin Siegrist (STL, RP)	737	965	228
Scott Downs (KC, RP)	738	966	228
Heath Hembree (BOS, RP)	739	967	228
Paul Clemens (HOU, RP)	740	968	228
Gonzalez Germen (CHC, RP)	741	969	228
Spencer Patton (TEX, RP)	742	970	228
Darin Downs (HOU, RP)	743	971	228
Craig Breslow (BOS, RP)	744	972	228
Preston Claiborne (MIA, RP)	745	973	228
Steven Geltz (TB, RP)	746	974	228
Erik Goeddel (NYM, RP)	747	975	228
R.J. Alvarez (OAK, RP)	748	976	228
Chris Withrow (LAD, RP)	749	977	228
Phil Klein (TEX, RP)	750	978	228
Luis Garcia (PHI, RP)	751	979	228
B.J. Rosenberg (PHI, RP)	752	980	228
Carson Smith (SEA, RP)	753	981	228
Lester Oliveros (MIN, RP)	754	982	228
A.J. Achter (MIN, RP)	755	983	228
Ryan Pressly (MIN, RP)	757	984	227
Eric Surkamp (CWS, RP)	758	985	227
Scott Rice (NYM, RP)	759	986	227
Anthony Bass (HOU, RP)	760	987	227
Rob Rasmussen (TOR, RP)	761	988	227
Juan Jaime (ATL, RP)	762	989	227
Josh Outman (ATL, RP)	763	990	227
Wei-Chung Wang (MIL, RP)	764	991	227
Drake Britton (CHC, RP)	765	992	227
Zach Rosscup (CHC, RP)	766	993	227
Sam Tuivailala (STL, RP)	767	994	227
Ian Thomas (ATL, RP)	768	995	227
Chasen Shreve (NYY, RP)	769	996	227
Bo Schultz (TOR, RP)	770	997	227
Sean Marshall (CIN, RP)	771	998	227
Joe Beimel (TEX, RP)	772	999	227
Bobby LaFromboise (PIT, RP)	773	1000	227
Pedro Beato (ATL, RP)	774	1001	227
Mike Kickham (CHC, RP)	775	1002	227
Dario Alvarez (NYM, RP)	776	1003	227
Jorge Rondon (COL, RP)	777	1004	227
Kyle Drabek (TOR, RP)	778	1005	227
Michael Kohn (LAA, RP)	779	1006	227
Cesar Jimenez (PHI, RP)	780	1007	227
Michael Bolsinger (LAD, SP,RP)	781	1008	227
Frank Garces (SD, RP)	782	1009	227
Taylor Thompson (OAK, RP)	783	1010	227
Preston Guilmet (TOR, RP)	784	1011	227
Jose Alvarez (LAA, RP)	785	1012	227
Yoslan Herrera (LAA, RP,SP)	786	1013	227
Tom Layne (BOS, RP)	787	1014	227
C.J. Riefenhauser (TB, RP)	788	1015	227
Eric Fornataro (WSH, RP)	789	1016	227
Jon Edwards (TEX, RP)	790	1017	227
Sean Gilmartin (NYM, SP)	791	1018	227
Aaron Thompson (MIN, RP)	792	1019	227
Ryan Dennick (CIN, RP)	793	1020	227
Kyle Ryan (DET, RP)	794	1021	227
Michael Kirkman (TEX, RP)	795	1022	227
Stephen Pryor (MIN, RP)	796	1023	227
Liam Hendriks (TOR, SP,RP)	799	1024	225
Tyler Lyons (STL, SP,RP)	801	1025	224
Blake Treinen (WSH, SP,RP)	805	1026	221
Brett Oberholtzer (HOU, SP)	560	778	218
Scott Feldman (HOU, SP)	416	633	217
Aaron Barrett (WSH, RP)	598	806	208
Brian Flynn (KC, P,SP,RP)	819	1027	208
Kevin Slowey (MIA, RP)	821	1028	207
Eric Jokisch (CHC, P,RP)	823	1029	206
Felix Doubront (CHC, SP,RP)	824	1030	206
Jacob Turner (CHC, SP,RP)	825	1031	206
Andre Rienzo (MIA, SP,RP)	826	1032	206
Lisalverto Bonilla (TEX, SP,RP)	827	1033	206
Taylor Jordan (WSH, SP,RP)	831	1034	203
Buck Farmer (DET, P,SP,RP)	832	1035	203
Bruce Chen (KC, SP,RP)	833	1036	203
Tyler Skaggs (LAA, SP)	834	1037	203
Taylor Hill (WSH, P,RP)	836	1038	202
Kyle Kendrick (COL, SP)	620	820	200
Nicholas Tepesch (TEX, SP,RP)	655	853	198
Dylan Axelrod (CIN, SP,RP)	841	1039	198
Vidal Nuno (ARI, SP)	434	631	197
Cody Martin (ATL, SP)	844	1040	196
Jeremy Jeffress (MIL, RP)	553	748	195
Roberto Hernandez (LAD, SP)	846	1041	195
David Holmberg (CIN, SP,RP)	849	1042	193
Bruce Rondon (DET, RP)	438	629	191
Kyle Zimmer (KC, SP)	853	1043	190
Daniel Straily (HOU, SP,RP)	476	664	188
Chris Hatcher (LAD, RP)	499	687	188
Aaron Brooks (KC, P,SP,RP)	856	1044	188
Yohan Pino (KC, SP,RP)	857	1045	188
Chris Heston (SF, P,RP)	862	1046	184
Bronson Arroyo (ARI, SP)	863	1047	184
Mike Pelfrey (MIN, SP)	864	1048	184
Tommy Milone (MIN, SP)	542	725	183
Jim Johnson (ATL, RP)	626	807	181
Daniel Corcino (CIN, SP,RP)	868	1049	181
Andrew Chafin (ARI, SP,RP)	869	1050	181
Tyler Chatwood (COL, SP)	871	1051	180
Christian Friedrich (COL, SP,RP)	872	1052	180
Taylor Jungmann (MIL, SP)	873	1053	180
Christian Bergman (COL, SP,RP)	874	1054	180
Matt Harrison (TEX, SP)	876	1055	179
Hunter Strickland (SF, RP)	437	615	178
Jake Diekman (PHI, RP)	401	578	177
Ricky Nolasco (MIN, SP)	537	714	177
Logan Darnell (MIN, SP,RP)	879	1056	177
Bryan Mitchell (NYY, P,RP)	880	1057	177
Matt Magill (CIN, SP,RP)	881	1058	177
Aaron Loup (TOR, RP)	478	653	175
Dallas Beeler (CHC, SP,RP)	884	1059	175
Drew VerHagen (DET, SP,RP)	886	1060	174
Jonathan Pettibone (PHI, SP,RP)	889	1061	172
Erik Johnson (CWS, SP,RP)	890	1062	172
Gus Schlosser (COL, RP)	891	1063	172
Hector Santiago (LAA, SP,RP)	489	657	168
Jhoulys Chacin (COL, SP)	523	680	157
Grant Balfour (TB, RP)	589	746	157
Dominic Leone (SEA, RP)	422	577	155
Victor Black (NYM, RP)	686	835	149
Luke Hochevar (KC, SP,RP)	522	668	146
Dale Thayer (SD, RP)	482	626	144
David Phelps (MIA, SP,RP)	463	606	143
Adam Warren (NYY, RP)	435	575	140
Nick Vincent (SD, RP)	461	597	136
Junichi Tazawa (BOS, RP)	417	551	134
David Carpenter (NYY, RP)	500	632	132
Yoervis Medina (SEA, RP)	492	622	130
Ivan Nova (NYY, SP)	618	747	129
Matthew Wisler (SD, SP)	534	662	128
Carlos Perez (ATL, SP)	962	1090	128
Brian Matusz (BAL, RP)	588	715	127
Charlie Furbush (SEA, RP)	497	623	126
Joba Chamberlain (DET, RP)	569	691	122
Tom Wilhelmsen (SEA, RP)	453	568	115
Jairo Diaz (COL, RP)	734	848	114
Casey Fien (MIN, RP)	471	583	112
Cameron Bedrosian (LAA, RP)	582	693	111
Jason Grilli (ATL, RP)	442	552	110
Sean Nolin (OAK, RP)	664	773	109
Tanner Scheppers (TEX, SP,RP)	694	803	109
Neal Cotts (MIL, RP)	446	554	108
Brandon Beachy (LAD, SP)	486	591	105
Dan Otero (OAK, RP)	502	604	102
Chase Whitley (NYY, SP,RP)	631	733	102
Jonathon Niese (NYM, SP)	311	410	99
Miguel Gonzalez (BAL, SP)	383	480	97
Ryan Cook (OAK, RP)	469	564	95
Bartolo Colon (NYM, SP)	294	388	94
Tyler Matzek (COL, SP)	567	661	94
Jesse Hahn (OAK, SP)	276	369	93
Jose Diaz (CIN, RP)	519	612	93
Jeremy Hellickson (ARI, SP)	387	479	92
Danny Farquhar (SEA, RP)	376	467	91
Kevin Jepsen (TB, RP)	433	523	90
Pedro Strop (CHC, RP)	447	534	87
Tommy Hunter (BAL, RP)	480	561	81
Aaron Crow (MIA, RP)	674	755	81
Colby Lewis (TEX, SP)	648	728	80
Mike Morin (LAA, RP)	507	586	79
Jason Hammel (CHC, SP)	278	355	77
Kyle Gibson (MIN, SP)	436	513	77
Andrew Heaney (LAA, SP)	319	394	75
Joel Peralta (LAD, RP)	341	416	75
Jared Hughes (PIT, RP)	614	688	74
Seth Maness (STL, RP)	475	547	72
Jeurys Familia (NYM, RP)	400	470	70
Mike Leake (CIN, SP)	274	342	68
Zach Putnam (CWS, RP)	605	671	66
Alexi Ogando (BOS, RP)	638	703	65
Matt Garza (MIL, SP)	290	353	63
Brandon Morrow (SD, SP,RP)	460	522	62
Antonio Bastardo (PIT, RP)	427	488	61
Al Alburquerque (DET, RP)	511	569	58
John Danks (CWS, SP)	627	685	58
Mike Dunn (MIA, RP)	462	519	57
Scott Atchison (CLE, RP)	546	600	54
Josh Johnson (SD, SP)	612	665	53
Jake Peavy (SF, SP)	280	332	52
Allen Webster (ARI, SP,RP)	531	582	51
Ross Detwiler (TEX, RP,SP)	587	637	50
Jordan Lyles (COL, SP)	681	731	50
Ubaldo Jimenez (BAL, SP,RP)	661	708	47
Adam Ottavino (COL, RP)	431	476	45
Cory Rasmus (LAA, SP,RP)	642	686	44
Brad Hand (MIA, SP,RP)	802	846	44
Tom Koehler (MIA, SP)	405	448	43
Marco Gonzales (STL, SP,RP)	466	509	43
Kris Medlen (KC, SP,RP)	481	524	43
Yusmeiro Petit (SF, SP,RP)	252	288	36
Shane Greene (DET, SP)	329	365	36
Will Smith (MIL, RP)	457	493	36
Evan Marshall (ARI, RP)	586	620	34
John Lackey (STL, SP)	217	250	33
Alexander Colome (TB, SP)	512	545	33
Bud Norris (BAL, SP)	353	385	32
Kyle Lohse (MIL, SP)	247	276	29
Joakim Soria (DET, RP)	334	363	29
Anibal Sanchez (DET, SP)	125	153	28
Jordan Walden (STL, RP)	456	484	28
Mike Foltynewicz (ATL, RP,SP)	529	557	28
Drew Smyly (TB, SP)	159	186	27
Francisco Liriano (PIT, SP)	169	195	26
Brandon McCarthy (LAD, SP)	206	232	26
Zach Duke (CWS, RP)	540	566	26
Chris Capuano (NYY, SP,RP)	651	677	26
Zach McAllister (CLE, SP,RP)	811	837	26
Jake McGee (TB, RP)	185	208	23
Jimmy Nelson (MIL, SP)	326	349	23
Anthony Cingrani (CIN, SP)	324	346	22
Dan Haren (MIA, SP)	396	418	22
Sean Doolittle (OAK, RP)	168	188	20
Ervin Santana (MIN, SP)	224	244	20

[stevenash]

More random notes

Mark Appel

Appel returned to the mound Monday after missing his last scheduled start with forearm tightness. He threw two innings and all reports came back that he felt great, excellent news considering the outbreak of UCL tears that seem to be going from camp-to-camp in the Grapefruit League. Last season in AA Appel posted a near 9 K/9 while seeing his HR/9 plummet to 0.46 after being near 2.00 in his time in High-A. Outside of his 5.0 innings pitched in his debut season, Appel's 2.99 FIP was the lowest total of his career, down from the 5.32 in has in High-A. Appel is a consensus top 50 prospect in baseball and like Correa will probably see his debut at some point in late 2015.


Corey Kluber

In news we all saw coming Kluber has been announced as the starting pitcher for the Indians against the Twins on opening day. Kluber, coming of his Cy Young winning campaign, has thrown just three innings this spring after throwing 235.3 innings last year. Those 200+ innings were more than he has thrown in any of his first three MLB season combined. However, Kluber was so dominant (Hence the Cy Young Season) that even with such an extreme jump in innings, drafted him among the top ten starters of the game should be the gameplan. Every peripheral, and I mean every, jumped for Kluber from 2013-to-14 and while he an excellent candidate for some regression, he likely will still be an ace for fantasy staffs in 2015.


Fransisco Lindor

Lindor hit his first homerun in Cactus League play Monday with an inside-the-park homer. The Indians top prospect his hitting .292 in 11 games, but is destined to begin the year in AAA with Jose Ramirez being the starter on opening day. Lindor likely will be a midseason call-up, as he would likely be competing for the starting job if Ramirez wasn't a competent shortstop option in his own part. Lindor has a solid overall skillset, but most of his "real" value comes from his defense which doesn't necessarily matter to fantasy owners. When he gets the call, at best he'll hit for a fairly empty average with some stolen base and run upside depending on where he hits in the lineup.


Zack Wheeler

It strikes again... Wheeler learned Monday that he will miss all of the 2015 season with Tommy John Surgery after MRIs revealed a torn UCL in his right elbow. Wheeler has excellent strikeout potential but his combination of: throwing hard+bad command+few innings ultimately was too much for his elbow to handle. Dillon Gee, who was possibly a trade candidate for the Mets now will likely be one of their five starters in their initial rotation when they break camp.


Cliff Lee -

You probably shouldn't have been drafting Lee anyways, and now you definitely aren't drafting Lee in any format. Lee was placed on the 60-day DL and is going to try to rehab his elbow instead of opting for the surgery that could possibly end his career. A hodge-podge of players including Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Kevin Slowey, Paul Clemens, and a recovering from elbow surgery Chad Billingsly are candidates to replace Lee in the rotation but it's now official you aren't drafting any Phillies pitchers besides Hamels, Paplebon, and Giles.


Joe Kelly

The 2015 Cy Young Award winner Joe Kelly left Monday's start with bicep tightness that left him unable to through anything other than a fastball. It's unsure how long Kelly will have to get shutdown for, but the Sox's training staff doesn't believe that it will last very long. Kelly has been roughed up this spring allowing nine runs in 7.1 innings but does have an excellent eight to one strikeout to walk ratio. The injuries have to make the team a little weary as he last missed three months last year with a hamstring injury, so we will have to monitor the situation as spring comes to a close.


Tony Cingrani

Cingrani will pitch from the bullpen to start 2015, zapping essentially any fantasy value from the lefty in one fell swoop. Even with three empty spots in the rotation, the Reds still elected to move Cingrani to the pen for this season. He does have a very high strikeout potential which was part of why he was such an intriguing sleeper coming into this season. But alas, without the potential to rack up innings or the potential to notch some saves, Cingrani can be left undrafted or dropped in leagues that have already drafted.


Miguel Sano - Sano was optioned to AA Monday after hitting a pair of homeruns in his action in spring training. All reports were good on Sano health-wise this spring as he is recovering from Tommy John Surgery that ended his season in spring training last season. In 2013, Sano launched 35 homers in 123 games across two levels, proving himself as one of the top power prospects in the game. The Twins have not ruled out a possible debut for Sano this year, so owners can keep tabs one him over the first have of the season to potentially add him if a debut if coming up.


Kris Bryant

Time for your daily Kris Bryant update: Bryant doubled off the right field wall Monday, playing DH to give his fatigued shoulder a rest. Despite his six homeruns and .435 average we are still all expecting Bryant to begin the year in the minors for at least the first few weeks to remove the Super Two tag from him. Mike Olt will more than likely break North with the team for the beginning of the season and will do his best to keep the seat warm for the most anticipated debut of 2015.


Matt Kemp

I was watching this game yesterday and saw Matt Kemp hit a baseball where baseballs shouldn't be able to fly to... Kemp is looking to build off his MVP-like second half of 2014 where he hit 17 homers with a .304 average. He is likely to hit right in the middle of the revamped Padres and should have some RBI potential. His power numbers may see a slight dip from the second half of 2014 pace as Petco is not exactly hitter friendly and he no longer steals bases like he did early in his career, but he appears healthy and with that he can crack the top 20 outfield rankings for 2015.


Joe Nathan

The over under on Nathan losing his job is now set at May 7th, place you bets. There's no way that Nathan holds on to this job for long, and there are some talented relievers in that same pen ready to step in and handle the ninth. Joakim Soria is one of the top options to replace him with some looming sleepers being Al Alburquerue and the long but not forgotten Bruce Rondon. Presonally I'd love to see what Rondon could do when given the reigns, as we never got to see what he could do before due to injury and his in-ability to throw strikes but Soria is obviously the number two option in this bullpen and probably the guy you need to be drafting anyways.


Anthony Gose

Gose has had a great spring training and looks like he has the centerfield job in Detroit all but secured. Acquired from the Blue Jays for Devon Travis this offseason, Gose is hitting .464 with 6 RBI and four steals in just ten games. If he does finish strong and crack the opening day lineup, he could have some real value as he will likely see a huge jump in runs at the top of the lineup in front of Miguel Cabrera and company. Towards the bottom of the lineup though he would be less valueable, but definitely still worth a flier late in drafts for his upside in three of five standard categories.

[stevenash]

More random notes

Anthony Rendon - First things first: I love Rendon as a player. I think he's a clear top-4 player at either 2B or 3B, and he doesn't turn 25 until June. That being said, I think there's very little upside (and some reasonable downside) at his current ADP of 11th. He ranked third in the percentage of home runs hit that were classified as "just enough" last year, with 9 of his 21 homers plotted as failing to leave the yard in 2/3 of major league stadiums. His batted ball speed and average HR distance all support the likelihood of a slight decline in his HR total this year. In addition, he attempted twice as many steals in 2014 as he did in the two full professional seasons prior to that. He's not a burner at all, so he's likely maxed out there as well. His R and RBI totals look a bit inflated from last year as well, so a bit of a dip should probably be expected there too. AVG is the one area where there is some argument of upside, but even there his poor BABIP luck from 2013 turned neutral in 2014, so he's most likely to come in fairly close to last year's figure. All in all, you've got reasonable cases for regression in 4 of 5 categories, and at the very least you'd be stretching to expect anything better than last year. For me, Rendon is best selected in the late 2nd/early 3rd rounds of a 12-team mixed draft, and if that's the case, you're likely going to have to let someone else deal with the risk of slight regression.


David Freese - I'm probably in the minority, but I still see some potential upside with Freese. His LD rate of over 25% wasn't fully represented in his BABIP last season, and as a player whose lowest LD rate for a season is 20.9%, there's always the possibility of some average upside. Furthermore, his average HR distance of over 404 feet borders on elite level....the problem is that Freese basically only hits the ball between left-center and right-center. With a bit more pull in his swing, 15-20 homers would easily come into play. He's not really a factor for standard-sized leagues, but those in deep leagues should pay him a bit of heed, as I wouldn't be surprised to see top-20 positional value at 3B out of Freese this year, and as such he would warrant a late-game selection.


Kole Calhoun - Calhoun delivered on his modest power upside in 2014, but I do think there's a bit more potential here in both AVG and SB for 2015, and I think much of it depends on the fact that his right ankle is fully healed heading into the year. His LD rate of nearly 24% only delivered a BABIP of .313 (well below expectations), and after swiping a few bags in the first two weeks of the year, Calhoun only stole one in his three months after hitting the DL for the ankle injury. Another 10-15 points in batting average, along with 10-15 steals, and then Calhoun will become the legitimate OF3 that I envision.


Steven Souza - Souza is one of the more interesting players to watch this spring, as at age 26 he appears to finally have a shot at a major league starting spot. Souza has performed at close to a 30/30 level per 150 games throughout his minor league career, and as you might expect, he does come packaged with some reasonable contact issues. His path is rather unique, though, in that he showed virtually no progress until his 6th professional season, and it took him until his 7th pro season to reach AA. In 173 G at AA and AAA the past two years, however, he's produced 33 HRs and 46 SBs. If he can offer up even half of that this year for Tampa, and we think that he can, he is a worthwhile selection for all formats, and quite a bit higher than his current 54th ranking among OF in NFBC drafting I might add.


Drew Smyly - Smyly has become a popular sleeper over the past few weeks, moving up to the 43rd SP coming off the board of late. I'm certainly not a buyer at this level, as his late-season performance had a sizable portion of luck that could be ascribed to it. Despite a LD rate of just under 20%, his BABIP as a Ray was under .200. His velocity was down a bit last year, he's already on the shelf with some shoulder discomfort, and his LOB% last year was a likely unsustainable 79.3%. I prefer the upside of Archer and Odorizzi in the Ray rotation, both of whom are currently being drafted after Smyly in most leagues. For me, Smyly is more of an SP5/streamer than a mid-tier SP4 in 12-team leagues.


Alex Avila - I often find myself scrapping for any sort of potential late in the draft for a 2nd catcher, and out of all the backstops being drafted outside of the top-20, Alex Avila offers the most upside to me. His stats really suffered after a June concussion last year, but he still managed yet another year with a LD rate well above 20% (25 last year), and his average home run distance of 410 feet falls into the elite category. He definitely has both AVG and power upside , and for a late-game flyer in your second catcher spot what more do you want?


Jonathan Gray - Gray is apparently still in the mix for a spot in the Colorado rotation, and although of course the usual caveats for Rockie pitchers apply, Gray has a chance to be special. Especially for those of you drafting a few weeks from now, I would consider Gray as a streaming-type of an option in the late-game portion of your draft if he remains in the mix....he has #2 starter upside.


Jay Bruce - I'm a big believer in a Bruce and Votto rebound for the Reds this year, and in Bruce's case there are three main reasons for that. #1, the knee injury last year certainly sapped his power, as he couldn't generate the normal level of torque from his back leg. Secondly, although his LD rate remained above 20%, his BABIP dropped all the way to .269, a very unfortunate level for a player with moderate speed and that LD rate. Finally, despite the knee issues his average HR distance was still 406 feet, which also would portend a bit of a power rebound. I think there's some upside from Bruce's current position as the 26th OF off the board, and I view him as a solid OF2.


Adrian Beltre - Beltre has continued to evolve as a hitter during his time in Texas, hitting more line drives, popping up less, walking more, and making better contact in general. The ISO drop last year may be a bit overstated due to a still-elite 104.6 mph batted-ball speed, and in this day and age, a likely .310-.320 hitter with 20-25 homers is a very valuable commodity. Father Time is undefeated long-term, but I'm still happy with Beltre as my 3B this year anytime after the middle of the second round.


Brad Miller - Miller's value jumped yesterday with the unfortunate news that Chris Taylor broke his wrist and will miss at least 4-6 weeks, giving Miller the starting SS gig by default. Miller already had some upside potential, owing to a BABIP that was about 45 points below expected in 2014 combined with a bit more power than his 10 HRs last year would lead you to believe (as evidenced by his avg HR distance of 405 feet). His contact rate isn't awful, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the K totals drop a bit this year as well, and I could envision double-digits in steals to boot. All in all, Miller has some upside across the board, and I would certainly take a shot on him as a low-cost MI in leagues of moderate depth or greater.


Jose Bautista - It's a common mantra (and accurate) that you can't win leagues in the first round or two, but you can lose them. In that light, there are a few things about Jose Bautista that are nagging me in a negative sense. The contact rate slid back toward his career average last year in conjunction with a career-worst chase%, yet his BABIP and AVG were both the 2nd-best of his career. His average HR distance is very good, but it's behind such hitters as Nolen Arenado, Corey Dickerson, and Alex Gordon....combined with the decline in ISO from his peak I would say that Bautista is more likely to hit less than his 2014 total of 35 HRs in 2015 than more. Add in the fact that he's the oldest players being selected in the first few rounds on average, and suffice it to say that I will be letting others take the risk on Bautista this year unless he somehow slides into the mid-20s....there is just far more downside here than there is with most other options early in the draft.


Brett Gardner - Gardner looks a bit undervalued to me based on his current ADP....granted, the avg HR distance leads you to believe that 12-15 HRs is a more likely outcome than last year's 17, but his AVG was deflated by a surprisingly low BABIP of .305 (expected approx. .325), his swinging strike% remains very low at less than 5%, and his stolen base attempts dropped significantly in the second half when he was moved out of the leadoff spot frequently. I expect a bit more in the way of R, SB, and AVG this season to more than offset a slight drop in HR, and I value him more as an OF3 than the OF4 that his current ADP represents.


Salvador Perez - For me, Perez is likely to be a top-5 player at the position, yet he's currently the 7th catcher off the board on average. An abnormally low BABIP last season contributed to a 32 point drop in average, and while his chase rate escalated as well (which clearly also contributed), some positive movement in AVG should be expected. Perez is also turning 25 in May, and it wouldn't be a surprise at all to see some further gains in power up into the 20 HR range. All in all, I'd likely rather gamble on a guy like Perez that's on the right side of the age curve than someone like Brian McCann....Perez is still a solid choice after Posey and Lucroy are off the board, likely sometime around the 95th-105th pick.


Rougned Odor - If you're looking for a player outside of the top 250 that could definitely make major strides in 2015, Odor fits the bill. The track record of guys that aren't completely overmatched in the majors at age 20 is pretty solid, and looking at players with comparable performances to Odor through age 20 comes up with guys like Ryan Zimmerman, Starlin Castro, Brett Lawrie, Kolten Wong, and Jose Altuve. At the very least, I expect some more speed to manifest this year, perhaps in the 15 SB range. Beyond that, just general maturation and adjustments should carry him into at least MIF mixed league value, with plenty of upside beyond that.


Daniel Hudson - Hudson is a near-total wild card entering 2015, as he has pitched a total of 61 innings (majors and minors) since 2011 while suffering two TJ surgeries and a shoulder impingement (not necessarily in that order). He only threw a couple of innings at the end of 2014 out of the bullpen, but it was interesting to see that his velocity had not only withstood the multiple procedures on his arm, but it had (as you'd expect from a healthy arm) increased in the short stints in the pen. The D-Backs have already stated that he'll be on the team if he's healthy, and it isn't like they've locked down the rotation with 2014 holdovers....only Collmenter and Hellickson are guaranteed spots right now, and it seems to be an open competition between 6 or 7 others for the other three slots. As a flyball pitcher in Arizona there's a lot of standard deviation here, but he's definitely worth watching during spring training (and likely for a week or two beyond) as a back-end rotational option with upside.

[broadway6]

have my first draft tonight

[stevenash]

have my first draft tonight

What's the format?
Out of the two big fantasy sports, baseball and football, nothing beats the baseball draft.

I'm really high on Gerrit Cole this season.
Entering 3rd full season, look at his K rate, it's 9 per 9.
Now dig deeper, look at his contact ratre, Cole induces a ton of weak contact (or no contact)
I'm slobbering just at thought every time he pitches against the Cubs (maybe 4 or 5 times this year) he'll strike out 10 a game.

Go as high as 54th pick with him (mid 5th round)
p.s. his shoulder problem is a thing of the past.

BoL

Post here if you want, I'm online all night, I'm staying home, chilling.

[broadway6]

What's the format?
Out of the two big fantasy sports, baseball and football, nothing beats the baseball draft.

I'm really high on Gerrit Cole this season.
Entering 3rd full season, look at his K rate, it's 9 per 9.
Now dig deeper, look at his contact ratre, Cole induces a ton of weak contact (or no contact)
I'm slobbering just at thought every time he pitches against the Cubs (maybe 4 or 5 times this year) he'll strike out 10 a game.

Go as high as 54th pick with him (mid 5th round)
p.s. his shoulder problem is a thing of the past.

BoL

Post here if you want, I'm online all night, I'm staying home, chilling.

i show up and half the office didn't show. Turned out to be a little of a joke. I'm ashamed to even talk about it Have my paid league draft next Sunday. That will be more "real" of a league.

[stevenash]

^
I'm drafting 9:00 a week from today.

http://www.mastersbaseballleagues.com

[broadway6]

^
I'm drafting 9:00 a week from today.

http://www.mastersbaseballleagues.com

that's a cool website. which division do you play in?

[broadway6]

Nashy, thoughts on Rizzo, Joey Bats, and Carlos Gomez? Who do you like the most?

[stevenash]

^
Carlos Gomez

[broadway6]

^
Carlos Gomez

Thats who I've been taking in mocks where I draft in the middle or end

[shaunovery]

Anyone play at cdmsports

This thread really is valuable for fantasy players

[stevenash]

Thats who I've been taking in mocks where I draft in the middle or end

Out of all my mocks, I've had the most success from the five slot.

[stevenash]

Anyone play at cdmsports

This thread really is valuable for fantasy players

I was 2006 CDM Champion, I came from way back in June, Cocktail and Dreams had me by the balls because he used all his moves early, then three key players went down, and he was out of options, I had eleven options left, picked up Bagwell when Ryan Howard went down (remember this was 2006) and won on September 29.

11,000 dollars.

[shaunovery]

I was 2006 CDM Champion, I came from way back in June, Cocktail and Dreams had me by the balls because he used all his moves early, then three key players went down, and he was out of options, I had eleven options left, picked up Bagwell when Ryan Howard went down (remember this was 2006) and won on September 29.

11,000 dollars.

Nice

I've been playing the roto game last couple of years I'm no good but it's fun to play all season

[broadway6]

Out of all my mocks, I've had the most success from the five slot.

5 would be great. You can grab someone like Goldschmidt there. I have more problems with the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

[stevenash]

Taijuan Walker - Walker is surprisingly flying under the radar a bit this spring, carrying a bit of a "post-hype prospect" vibe with him after the past few injury-influenced seasons. Still just 22, Walker generates a lot of swing-and-miss with three above-average offerings to go along with a changeup that's still improving. His command can be iffy at times, but his ceiling is definitely that of a top-20 arm, and he's pitching in a favorable home park. After another four shutout innings yesterday, Walker has allowed just 4 hits & 3 walks over 12 innings thus far this spring, striking out 13 w/o allowing a run to this point. I would be perfectly happy slotting Walker in as my fifth starter, and with an average ADP in the 23rd round, the cost certainly shouldn't be prohibitive.

Jake Lamb - Lamb has his contact issues, but he could prove to be a cheap source of power if the D-Backs choose to move Tomas to the OF (or to AAA) for the start of the season. He has clear 20-25 HR power if he can get the ABs, and he's doing his best this spring to prove that he belongs with the club with 4 2Bs and 2 HRs in his first 32 spring ABs. Tomas does look a bit raw (he has a couple errors at 3B already), but I think that Arizona is going to let this play out for another couple of weeks before they make a decision....Lamb would definitely have value in formats deeper than average if he is starting. Rene Rivera - I feel like I left a bit unsaid a few weeks ago regarding Rivera, whose 318 ABs last season were his highest total since 2007. Rivera was pushed to the majors (and into a backup role) right out of A-ball as a 20 year old 11 years ago, and it seems like he has never gotten a real shot at consistent playing time until last season in San Diego. Rivera was 8th among catchers in WAR last year, putting up a 232/312/490 line away from Petco. The Rays are very happy with him as the primary backstop, and with his easy 15+ HR potential, I like him by far the most of the late-game catching options out there. TB rotation - The Tampa rotation is a complete mess right now with the arm issues that Alex Cobb is facing, as instead of looking to replace just Matt Moore for the first half of the year, they're now scrambling to get early-season replacements for Moore, Cobb, and Drew Smyly. Ideally Cobb and Smyly won't be out for long, but with likely replacement Alex Colome laid up with pneumonia, a lot of guys have a shot out of the gate that normally wouldn't be considered, such as Enny Romero, Burch Smith, and Matt Andriese. It's looking like Smith may already have a spot sewn up (along with Nate Karns), and while he is marginally interesting to those in the deepest of formats, guys like Romero and Colome hold my eye a little more with their velocity. There's likely nothing here to get excited about from a fantasy perspective, but those two are the ones that could emerge from this with some legitimate value going forward if they can harness their control.

Ryan Zimmerman - Zimmerman really seems to be flying under the radar this spring after an injury-riddled 2014, and at age 30 I do expect him to rebound back to his typical .280-25-80 level of production, which would likely be enough to make him a top-10 asset at the position (which could be his last as 3B-eligible). His HR/FB rate dropped a lot more than expected given his batted ball distance, so assuming that he's once again full healthy I see no reason to extrapolate last year's power loss.

Tanner Roark - I still feel like Roark is likely to provide a bit of deep-league value this year, which should illustrate just how negative I am on Doug Fister's prospects. Even assuming some BABIP regression, Roark can provide league-average value out of the 5th starter's slot if given the opportunity....he is a better option than many teams have in the last few spots of their rotations.

Matt Joyce - It's possible that we are underrating Matt Joyce a bit heading into 2015 for a couple of reasons. The first is obvious: the improved offense around him, which should definitely boost his counting stats a bit. The second is a bit more surprising to me, but Joyce may benefit more than most from the park move. Over the past three seasons, Joyce has hit 30 HR on the road versus only 14 at home in Tampa. I don't think he's suddenly going to provide top-50 OF value, but it may make him a reasonable option in 16-team or deeper leagues as a fifth OF if he truly has 20-HR upside outside of Tampa.

Andrew Heaney - I'm not a huge fan of Heaney, particularly after the move to the AL out of a terrific pitcher's park, but he is likely to get a shot to open the season in the Angels rotation with Garrett Richards still probably a month away. Heaney is a 23 year old lefty with 3 above-average offerings and average-plus command, although nothing about him stands out as elite. His ceiling is likely that of a #3/#4 starter, which for me puts his value this season into the AL-only/deep mixed league category....he has some upside, but there's a pretty low floor here as well with his difficulties against RHB (301/364/580 in his brief MLB time last year).

Joc Pederson - If you like upside, I don't see how you can fail to draft Pederson this spring. A 30/30 player at AAA as a 22 year old last year, Pederson definitely seems to be getting less buzz than he deserves as the projected starting CF in a decent lineup. There are some contact issues of course, something that might keep the AVG down in the .250 range, but I just fail to see how there should be 150 players that are drafted between he and George Springer....I'd much rather have the value that Pederson is likely to provide at that draft position, as their floors and ceilings are very similar.

[stevenash]

Rising Stars: Mookie Betts (BOS-CF) - Let's start thing off with one of the hottest batters in spring training, Mookie Betts. In 29 at bats Betts already has 13 hits, seven of which have gone for extra bases. If the newly bolstered Red Sox lineup produces around him, Betts will have a breakout season. Betts earned the role as Boston's lead off hitter by hitting .291 in his first major league season. On his way to the majors, Betts demolished minor pitching hitting .341, .355, and .335 at Single-A, Double-A, and Triple-A respectively. For many rookies the numbers don't translate well to the big leagues, but this wasn't the case for Betts. At only 21 years old he posted a .368 OBP, 9.9% BB rate, .327 BABIP, and 84% contact rate in 213 at bats. To further his credibility Betts had a .444 SLG and .153 ISO. These numbers are startling considering that Betts is only 5-9 and 155 lbs. Although Betts is a good hitter his greatest asset might be his speed. Over the past two seasons he has accumulated 78 stolen bases, 40 of which came in 2014. The sky is the limit for Betts. He's the next big thing in Boston and he'll make you a proud fantasy owner if you decide to pick him.

Billy Burns (OAK-CF) - Billy Burns is taking Oakland Athletics spring training by storm. In 39 at bats he has 15 hits, which corresponds to a .385 AVG. Along with those 15 hits Burns has 11 runs scored and three stolen bases. I think it's pretty safe to say that Burns will be on the opening day roster. Burns has big league speed as displayed by his 57 stolen bases in 132 games last season. His potential to hit for a high average is also notable. Despite his struggles in 2014, Burns has a track record of hitting over .300. In 2012 he hit .322 at Single-A, which he followed up in 2013 by hitting .315 between A+ and Double-A. My guess would be that Burns begins the season hitting eighth or ninth. As the season progresses he should work his way toward the one or two spot. Regardless, Burns is going to steal bases and score runs so get him off waivers before it's too late. Jorge Soler (CHC-RF) - The list of talented young Cubs prospects continues with Jorge Soler. In 89 at bats for the Cubs, Soler had 26 hits, 14 of which were for extra bases. Soler's .573 SLG, .903 OPS, .281 ISO, .350 BABIP and 17.8 AB/HR were off the charts. The thing I love most about Soler is that he is an RBI machine. In 24 games for the miserable Cub offense, Soler recorded 20 RBIs. If the top of the Cubs lineup can produce any better than it did in 2014, then Soler should have a good chance to reach 100 RBIs. Additionally, he could easily contribute 25 home runs. Between 62 games last season at Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors, Soler hit 15 home runs. In spring training he already has two home runs and 10 hits in 25 at bats. Expect big production from Soler this season. He's an absolute wrecking ball at the plate and he'll demolish your opponents on a weekly basis.

Sure Things:
Josh Donaldson (TOR-3B) - As a member of the Blue Jays, Josh Donaldson's fantasy value is higher than ever. Donaldson will now play his home games in a hitter's ballpark where home runs come in bunches. For a hitter with a .201 ISO this is very important. Some might be concerned due to Donaldson's huge dip in batting average over the past year (.301 to .255). Part of this was due to a 2.2% rise in strikeout rate. The cause of Donaldson's increased K% might have been swinging for the fences more often. His career best 21.0 AB/HR in 2014 supports this notion. Honestly, a .255 AVG doesn't justify being nervous to draft a guy who hit 29 home runs and 98 RBIs for Oakland. This is one pick that's a no brainer. Josh Donaldson in a loaded Blue Jays lineup is a recipe for success.
Brian Dozier (MIN-2B) - Brian Dozier's 11 for 21 start in spring training is making it easy to see why he's one of the most valuable second basemen in fantasy baseball. On paper, Dozier almost covers the spread. His 112 runs scored from 2014 ranked second overall in the MLB. His 57 extra base hits tied him with Jose Altuve for 13th best in the MLB. Of those 57 extra base hits, 23 were home runs. This total tied Dozier with Neil Walker for the most home runs by a second basemen. Dozier's 23 home runs were complimented by 71 RBIs and 21 stolen bases. As a 20-20 player with a high potential to score runs and drive in RBIs Dozier has little downside. The only thing that a fantasy owner could really dislike about him was his .242 AVG. Despite this unimpressive average, Dozier had no problem getting on base. In 598 at bats last season he walked 89 times. This was 6th best in the MLB. Contemplate taking him in your draft once Cano and Altuve have been picked, because the next best second baseman isn't nearly as productive.
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI-1B) - Paul Goldschmidt is one of the most consistent and dangerous hitters in baseball. In four major league seasons he has a career .296 AVG, .385 OBP, .525 SLG, and .910 OPS. One thing about Goldschmidt that stands out is his ability to drive the ball to all fields. Of his 19 home runs in an injury shortened 2014, seven of those were to the opposite field. Not many guys hit seven opposite field home runs in a season much less in 109 games. Goldschmidt's knack for hitting left handed pitching also stands out. Excluding his rookie year, Goldschmidt has accumulated a .338 AVG with 24 home runs against lefties in 394 at bats. All this guy does is hit. His BABIP from the past three seasons is .372, .347, and .349. I love him, Arizona loves him, and most importantly our projections love him. Goldschmidt should be a top pick in every league. He is an investment in you future and will carry your team in RBIs, runs scored, AVG, and home runs.
Matt Harvey (NYM-SP) - Despite missing the 2014 season Matt Harvey still looks like an elite pitcher. Harvey performed like an ace on Monday when he put up a 4 IP 3 H 0 ER 3 K stat line against the Red Sox. Despite having a 200-inning limit Harvey shouldn't be inhibited very much, but if your fantasy team makes the playoffs it could be a problem. For now Harvey's career 2.39 ERA should ease your nerves. In 2013 his first full season, Harvey posted a 1.56 BB/9 and a 6.16 K/BB. His 95.8 MPH average fastball, 2.01 FIP, and 0.4 HR/9 lead all starting pitchers. With all of these accomplishments it's hard to believe that Harvey only had nine wins. Much of this was due to the fact he had the 17th worst run support. In all actuality, Harvey's 5.2 WAR suggests that he should've won closer to 14 games. Moving forward in 2015 Harvey shouldn't have any problem topping nine wins. His ERA and WHIP are likely to remain low, while his strikeout total should be more than sufficient. If you are willing to take the risk of not having him during the fantasy playoffs, then Harvey will reward you nicely.
Drew Storen (WAS-RP) - With Rafael Soriano and Tyler Clippard gone I think it's same to assume that Drew Storen will be the Nationals new closer. Storen solidified the role last September when he saved all 10 of his save opportunities for the month. Coming off a career best 1.76 BB/9, 90.6% strand rate, and 1.12 ERA Storen will have big shoes to fill. Storen might not be able to maintain a 1.12 ERA, but he should be successful as long as he limits his walks. Storen's 1.76 BB/9 was definitely the key to his success in 2014. In Storen's perfect September he issued no walks in 12.3 innings. Clearly he isn't unhittable as displayed by his career .291 BABIP, but as long continues throwing strikes he should be an effective closer.


Bring Out The Caution Tape:


Anthony Gose (DET-CF) - I really think Detroit acquired Anthony Gose to be the starting center fielder despite having Rajai Davis. Even though Gose and Davis are similar players, Gose has a brighter future due to his age. As a minor leaguer he consistently stole over 40 bases a year while hitting between .250 and .260. With the proper development Gose could make a great top of the lineup hitter. However he needs to work on putting the ball in play. In 2014 Gose only hit .226 with most of his success coming off of right handed pitching. What makes this so frustrating is that Gose's .319 BABIP and 9.1% BB rate are pretty solid. His 69% contact rate and 27% K rate are what's dragging him down. As a deep sleeper I really like Gose, because Detroit's lineup is built for success. For now take caution to Gose because of his past, but don't be shocked if he makes the opening day lineup. Currently he is 13 for 31 in spring training. Maybe this is a sign that he's starting to put things together, but it's tough to be sure. If you select him there's no downside to having him on your bench. He won't cost you a valuable pick and his ceiling is high enough to justify the decision.


Drew Hutchison (TOR-SP) - Sometimes numbers are deceiving like Drew Hutchison's 1.80 ERA in spring training. Hutchison has danger written all over him. This isn't to say that Hutchison is a bad pitcher or that he will never be a star, but he needs more time to develop before fantasy owners start jumping on him. In his first full major league season Hutchison got pounded for 23 home runs. These home runs heavily influenced his 4.48 ERA, which was further exacerbated by hitters .308 BABIP against him. To succeed as a starting pitcher in Rogers Center you have to keep the ball on the ground. Hutchison had a hard time doing this as conveyed by his 0.89 GB/FB ratio. For now I would hold up on drafting him. Although his 92 mph two seam and 8.97 K/9 are impressive, he isn't much of an asset to your fantasy team unless he can keep the ball on the ground.


Mike Olt (CHC-3B) - Mike Olt is one of the highest upside players in the Chicago Cubs minor league system. His ability to hit for power to all fields is something any team could make use of. Olt's .196 ISO and 9.7% BB rate from 2014 highlight his best attributes. However, Olt has no chance of remaining in the major if he continues to swing and miss like he did last season. Olt's .160 AVG, 56% contact rate, .212 BABIP and 38.8% K rate were atrocious. Major league pitchers clearly had no trouble figuring this guy out. After being optioned to Triple-A Olt showed immediate signs of improvement. In 106 at bats he put together a tidy .304 AVG. This production has carried over into spring training where Olt is six for 23 with two home runs and five RBIs. If Olt can keep it together through the month, he has a good shot to be the Cubs opening day third baseman. Otherwise Kris Bryant will probably get his first chance to play in the bigs.


Chien-Ming Wang (ATL-SP) - Is Chien-Ming Wang making a comeback? Before getting shelled on Saturday (0.1IP 4H 3ER 2BB) Wang was yet to allow a run in five innings. For a guy who hasn't pitched in the majors in over a year, it's unlikely that Wang has found his niche. When last recorded in 2013, Wang's average fastball velocity was only 89.9 MPH. In three of his past four seasons, Wang's ERA was greater than six. This was partially due to a disappointing strand percentage, which was below 70% in each of those seasons. If Wang is going to have any chance at redemption, he must keep his BB/9 down to compensate for his high BABIP. While I definitely wouldn't draft Wang this year, I might keep an eye on him as an extremely deep sleeper. The Braves starting rotation has two spots open and if Wang can somehow put things together he could end up being a nice waiver wire pickup.


Waiver Wire Steals:

Kyle Hendricks (CHC-SP) - After pitching five perfect innings against the Athletics on Saturday I must advise you to keep a close eye on Kyle Hendricks. Due to the Cubs dismal 2014 season, many fantasy owners missed out on Hendricks. In his first 13 major league starts, Hendricks never allowed more than four runs in any game. His 2.46 ERA in 80.3 innings pitched was no coincidence. Hendricks is an extremely efficient pitcher whose 14.4 P/IP and 1.68 BB/9 helped keep his ERA down. Additionally Hendricks contributed a 7-2 record in a season where the Cubs only won 73 games. Despite his comforting stats, Hendricks is not a must have player until the final rounds of the draft. His ERA is unlikely to remain below three, and he probably won't win more than 13 games on a shaky Cubs team. Regardless, if you need a pitcher to lower your WHIP and accumulate innings for you, Hendricks is a worthy choice.


Drew Pomeranz (OAK-SP) - Drew Pomeranz is one of my favorite hidden gems in all of baseball. As a member of the Rockies between 2011 and 2013 Pomeranz got pummeled. His lowest ERA in a season was 4.93 and his BABIP was above .300 every year. It wasn't Pomeranz's fault. He pitched in Colorado where no pitcher is ever at his best. Going to the Athletics is exactly what Pomeranz needed to kick start his career. In 69 innings pitched for Oakland Pomeranz had a 2.35 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an 84.3% strand rate. The biggest improvement in Pomeranz's game was his dip in BABIP. In 2013 Pomeranz had a hitter friendly .333 BABIP, which dropped to .252 in 2014. Pitching in Oakland really did do the trick. Off to hot start in March, Pomeranz already has 15 strikeouts in nine innings. Over those nine innings he has allowed only two earned runs. As the projected fifth starter, Pomeranz has a low fantasy value. He might not evenget taken in many leagues. Take Pomeranz deep in the draft or off of waivers and he'll make it worth your pick.

[Andy117]

How scared of drafting Tananka high are you?

[stevenash]

^
Very scared.
When right, he's a beast.
But he gets hurt.
My first 6 picks have to have a proven track record that they can play every day.

[Andy117]

^
Very scared.
When right, he's a beast.
But he gets hurt.
My first 6 picks have to have a proven track record that they can play every day.

So he won't be on any of your teams. I don't trust that arm either, I think he winds up with TJ surgery this year or next.

[stevenash]

So he won't be on any of your teams. I don't trust that arm either, I think he winds up with TJ surgery this year or next.

I'll draft him he falls in my lap say 30 positions below ADP.
He's not undraftable, he's just not draftable between 85 and 95 (late 7th round, early 8th round)
Like I said, if he's still on the board Sunday (when I draft) in the 10th round, I'll nab him, but in the 7th round, I want a Lucroy or a Iwakuma or DeGrom, hell, I'll nab Pedroia in the 7th or 8th round at 2B which is a very thin position.

I don't think Lucroy will be around after sixth round.

I will not draft Kershaw with a top 6 pick in the first round, I'll take him at 10 though, but he won't be there at 10.
Posey is not worth a first or second round pick either. Yet he's going late first, early second.
Not saying he's worthless, but think about it, you are using a very high draft choice for .300/20/80 hitter.
There are a lot of 20 homer guys out there.

Altuve is another one.
He's not hitting .340 again.
He'll regress to two years ago where he around .290/35 swipes.
Since he has no power, you are getting average and speed.
He's value in late third round, there is no value there at 11 or 12 overall in first round.
Unless he does go .333 with 50 swipes, and I ain't betting on that.

I got my eye on Dozier at 2B if I can get him sixth round, I think Pedroia still has gas in his tank.
Daniel Murphy always gets overlooked at 2B, and all he does is hit for average, score runs, and will never, ever hurt your team.
Hell he can steal 15 to 20 too.

[stevenash]

Wrong forum

[broadway6]

damn i'm intrigued about getting a team on masterleague too...just not confident enough in my skills/luck haha

[broadway6]

damn i'm intrigued about getting a team on masterleague too...just not confident enough in my skills/luck haha

starting lineups in this league is holy shit deep

Weekly Starting Lineup:

There are 23 active lineup spots, which are:
2 Catchers
1 First Baseman
1 Second Baseman
1 Shortstop
1 Third Baseman
5 Outfielders
1 Corner Infielder
1 Middle Infielder
1 Utility Players (any hitter)
9 Pitchers (900 minimum innings pitched required)*



i just don't get the 900 minium innings pitched. Should that be 90, nashy?