Okay, after going 59% this past weekend off a total of 17 sides, I've got a boosted confidence that my college football system will work similarly to my NFL one. Except that I'm absolutely, positively, NOT going to betting on 17 sides each week. I'm pretty sure if I pick and choose my battles, I should be able to keep it over 60%... hopefully.
For instance, tonight -- here's my lines compared to the actual line (the lines listed are that of the home team):
Buffalo @ Ohio
Actual line: -2.5
My line: -1.5
The play: Buffalo (+120) -- 1 unit
My handicapping system actually had Buffalo three points more powerful than Ohio, had a game been on neutral field. After averaging in home field advantage and the average line of a simulation engine, it landed on -1.5. So the way I figure it, Buffalo is the better team and is also still in the hunt for the Mid-American Conference title, so this game has a bit more importance for them than the 2-6 Bobcats.
Houston @ Marshall
Actual line: +7.5
My line: +9
The play: Houston (+7 (-120)) -- 1 unit
I know the sharp money is apparently favoring Marshall, but the difference was just too much. Houston should be giving nine points, so a play with a 1/2 point buy to the magical seven just seemed like the smart move.
Good luck to everyone tonight!
For instance, tonight -- here's my lines compared to the actual line (the lines listed are that of the home team):
Buffalo @ Ohio
Actual line: -2.5
My line: -1.5
The play: Buffalo (+120) -- 1 unit
My handicapping system actually had Buffalo three points more powerful than Ohio, had a game been on neutral field. After averaging in home field advantage and the average line of a simulation engine, it landed on -1.5. So the way I figure it, Buffalo is the better team and is also still in the hunt for the Mid-American Conference title, so this game has a bit more importance for them than the 2-6 Bobcats.
Houston @ Marshall
Actual line: +7.5
My line: +9
The play: Houston (+7 (-120)) -- 1 unit
I know the sharp money is apparently favoring Marshall, but the difference was just too much. Houston should be giving nine points, so a play with a 1/2 point buy to the magical seven just seemed like the smart move.
Good luck to everyone tonight!