TPowell's Plays for 10/15

**TPowell** · 10-15-08, 08:20 PM

Play #2: Ole Miss (+14) (bought a half point early on)

I'm sure some won't agree with this play, but Ole Miss is a pretty good football team. They've played 6 games this year and havent been beat by double digits yet. This includes games against Vandy and South Carolina while playing road games against Wake Forest and Florida. Alabama will have to REALLY want this game to cover 2 touchdowns. Ole Miss' pass defense isn't exactly good, but I don't think that Alabama will attempt to really throw the football. They've only threw for 205+ passing yards one time this year and that was against Western Kentucky. Alabama has faced ONE good team this year and that was Georgia. It was a great win, but I'm not sure if Alabama isn't overrated after thinking about it a while. Ole Miss won't be scared playing at Alabma, because they beat a BETTER Florida team 31-30 on the road. Ole Miss ran for over 200 yards against Vanderbilt and havent really been shut down so far. Alabama is a bit overrated right now and I expect their youth to show Saturday when a tough Ole Miss team comes into town. Another thing is Ole Miss has an incredibly fast offense that might be the perfect storm against Alabama. Alabama has faced mostly pocket passers so far. Alabama is in for a surprise against Ole Miss.

**TPowell** · 10-15-08, 08:33 PM

Play #3: Georgia Tech (-2)

So far Clemson has looked NOTHING like a top 10 team. They've won 1 game in lined games so far and that was a home game against a pathetic North Carolina State team. The difference in their wins and losses is rushing yards for the most part. A combined 21 rushing yards in games against Wake Forest and Alabama won't get the job done. C.J. Spiller is out for this game so that's one less weapon that they have in the running game. Clemson lost coach Tommy Bowden this week as well. I can't begin to tell you how hard it will be to stop a unique offense like Georgia Tech when you have a head coaching change in the same week. Tech played 2 games like this one early in the year. As a road dog of 6.5 points, they defeated Boston College 19-16 and lost a heartbreaker to Virginia Tech 20-17. Georgia Tech is 4-0 ATS this year and have played very well on the defensive side of the ball lately. They shut out Duke and only gave up 7 points to Mississippi State. The more impressive feat was putting up 38 points on a pretty solid Miss. State defense. Going on the road shouldnt be a big deal to the Yellow Jackets and Clemson is in horrible condition right now after losing their top back and head coach

**TPowell** · 10-15-08, 08:44 PM

Play #4: Virginia Tech (+3)

Boston College is a team that just hasnt beat ANY decent teams this year. They may be 4-1, but any decent team would look good with their schedule so far. BC's only loss this year is a 16-19 loss against Georgia Tech. The big difference in that game for Boston College was the fact that they couldn't move the ball on the ground OR through the air against the Yellow Jackets. They put up around 260 yards of total offense in that game. It's tough to gauge if Boston College is even a decent team to be honest. Of course they pound UCF and Kent State, but can they win close games against hardened ACC teams? We'll see this week because Virginia Tech is as tough as they come in the ACC. They lost their season opener to East Carolina, but have went 5-0 since that game. That list includes wins against Georgia Tech, AT North Carolina, and AT Nebraska. I'm pretty sure Nebraska has a better homefield advantage than BC, so I dont think Virginia Tech will be intimidated by playing on the road. Virginia Tech is just one of those teams that seem to always get the job done. They held UNC to just over 100 rushing yards and won 20-17, but they gave up 278 rushing yards the week before against Georgia Tech. The result was the exact same 20-17 win though.

**TPowell** · 10-15-08, 08:55 PM

Play #5: Arizona (+3) (bought the half point)

Cal can really light the scoreboard up with their passing attack, but this week they face a very talented Arizona defense that SPECIALIZES in stopping the pass. Washington put up 181 yards of passing, which is a season high for this Arizona defense. The reason is partly because Washington was blown out 41-14. Arizona has lost some disapointing road games this season against New Mexico and Stanford, but have played really well at home. The Wildcats are 4-0 SU and ATS at home this season. Cal's only loss this year came in a road game against Maryland. They put up over 400 yards of passing on Maryland, but couldn't overcome an early defecit. The last game these 2 teams played at Arizona was a 24-20 win for 'Zona. Cal was favored 2 touchdowns in that game. Since 1992, Cal is 10-23 as a road favorite and 0-6 as a road favorite of 3 points or less. That is a HUGE trend to me, because it shows how bad Cal is on the road. Those trends aren't really any better in the last 3 seasons either. I expect Cal to come out unmotivated and to be down early to an Arizona team that is underrated.

**ZBOIZ** · 10-15-08, 09:04 PM

I'm with you Ole Miss!!! Thats a gift! Just like Arkansas +20 , and Kentucky +17 was the last cpl of weeks !!!

The line makers be tripping with some of these double digit favs.

**TPowell** · 10-15-08, 09:08 PM

Play #6: Duke (+4.5)

When was the last time Duke was only a 4.5 point dog to Miami??? Miami has been a 20+ point favorite in each of the past 2 meetings. Miami failed to cover in either of the 2 games. The last game they played at Duke was in 2006 and Miami escaped with a 20-15 win. The reason behind the Miami win was FOUR interceptions thrown by Duke. This year's Duke team is way better than their previous teams. Duke was actually 3-1 until getting trashed 27-0 by Georgia Tech two weeks ago. I expect a big bounce back game for the Dukies on Saturday. Miami has failed to cover the spread in it's last 3 games. That includes home losses to Florida State and North Carolina. Miami does have much more talent than Duke, but you're going to have a hard time selling the fact that Miami will want this game more than Duke. Miami is 3-9 SU in road games the past 3 seasons. Duke's straight up records are pointless, because we all know how terrible they have been in the past. It's more of an ATS question when it comes to Duke. Honestly, trends tell you nothing about Duke, but I have a feeling that Duke's best football team in years will find a way to make this game close.

**TPowell** · 10-15-08, 09:10 PM

Originally posted by ZBOIZ

I'm with you Ole Miss!!! Thats a gift! Just like Arkansas +20 , and Kentucky +17 was the last cpl of weeks !!!

The line makers be tripping with some of these double digit favs.

you think Alabama is the class of SEC Z? They've did all they could do so far, but outside of Georgia who have they beat? The SEC is a weird conference and I wouldnt be surprised to see Bama drop a couple of games down the stretch

**TPowell** · 10-15-08, 09:25 PM

Play #7: Iowa State (+8)

Iowa State may not be as talented as Nebraska, but the homefield advantage is there for the Cyclones. Last week they were torched 38-10 at Baylor, but it was a pretty predictable result if you think about it. Iowa State led Kansas the whole game the week before and lost a heartbreaker 35-33. It was obvious that Iowa State would have a hangover from the week before. Nebraska shouldn't be giving a touchdown to too many teams on the road right now. Nebraska peformed better than expected in its first road game of the year against Texas Tech last week. Nebraska's defense just isn't there against the good teams. Iowa State should be able to put up plenty of points against them and I think we'll see a game that will come down to whoever has the football last. Iowa State has pretty good value on the ML at around +220 as well. I'm not sure if Iowa State will win this game or not, but they should definately be in this one until the end. The total in this game is 58 right now and to me that seems about right. The game is expected to be high scoring because neither of these teams will be able to stop the other from scoring.

**TPowell** · 10-15-08, 09:41 PM

Play #8: South Carolina (+3.5)

I'm not too sure what to make of LSU only giving South Carolina 3.5 points. I understand that LSU has problems and South Carolina is at home, but I'm missing something here. I'm going to chalk it up to the fact that Steve Spurrier is STILL one of the best coaches in college football. He seems to always have his teams ready to play big games, especially when they're at home. They did a great job on defense against Georgia, but just couldn't pull out the win. The Gamecocks passing attack has gotten better after an embarassing loss to Vandy at the time. I wouldn't count on South Carolina to be a contender in the SEC East this year, but I would count on them to play teams like LSU close. You don't win games against the ole' ball coach with inexperience at the quarterback position. LSU is 1-1 on the road so far this year. The win against Auburn looks a lot worse now though. They gave up 21 points to a terrible offense. That tells me that South Carolina WILL be able to score which is all I need to know. LSU might score some points, but they will make some mistakes and give South Carolina some points as well. I wouldnt be surprised to see LSU lose its second straight game.

**TPowell** · 10-15-08, 09:56 PM

Play #9: Iowa (-3) (bought a half point)

Iowa may only be 4-3 on the year, but they've played pretty good and I've been impressed by them lately. Indiana and Michigan State both failed to rush for 100 yards against this stingy Iowa defense. Wisconsin is currently struggling at the quarterback position. Senior QB Allan Evridge might be out of his starting role this week. The Badgers have really struggled through the air this year. They have to at least have the ability to throw it downfield if they want to defeat a tough Iowa team. Iowa will at least slow down the Wisconsin running attack and it will come down to what Wisky gets out of its quarterback. Wisconsin hasn't been held to under 140 yards all season. That includes games against Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan. The Big 10 always seems to be about who has homefield advantage and I believe Iowa is talented enough to pull this game out. The quarterback controversy right now at Wisconsin couldn't come out at a worse time. Iowa has held its opponents to just under 11 points per game this year and Wisconsin isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut. I would highly advise buying Iowa down to -3 though.

**TPowell** · 10-15-08, 10:09 PM

Play #10: Northwestern (-3) (bought a half point)

The big thing you need to know is that Purdue is 2-11 as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. This means a lot more than what you think. Purdue is traditionally not very good on the road. Northwestern may have been blown out against Michigan State, but they are still a quality team in my mind. They came up with a 22-17 win at Iowa the week before they hosted Michigan State. You have to understand Northwestern football to understand this logic, but Iowa was a HUGE win for this program. It was a classic let-down game last week against Michigan State. The pressure of being undefeated also might have snuck up on the Wildcats. Northwestern will be able to stop Purdue on the ground which will force the Boilermakers to throw the football early and often. Northwestern might not have a great pass defense, but Purdue still can't rely on just throwing the football. Honestly, Northwestern probably has more talent than Purdue has to start with. I think linemakers may have given up on Northwestern after a disapointing loss last week, but you can't judge a team on one game. Northwestern will come out ready to play and Purdue will struggle to keep pace with Northwestern.

**TPowell** · 10-15-08, 10:18 PM

Play #11: USC (-42)

42 points??? Am I really willing to lay 6 touchdowns on the road team? That answer is YES! Where do I start when it comes to Washington State? They've lost by over 42 points multiple times this season. They couldn't even hang within 50 points of Oregon State. They couldn't hang within 60 points of Cal even though they played them at home. They were drilled by 49 points by Oregon AT HOME. USC has been pretty good about covering the spread so far this season. They've covered 4 of 5 games and won all 4 of them by at least 4 touchdowns. They actually beat Virginia 52-7 on the road in their season opener. I expect USC to come out firing because they understand that they HAVE to blow teams out if they want to get back to a National Championship game. Washington State is 0-6 ATS this season even though they've been getting a lot of points from teams with nowhere near the talent of USC. USC easily covered a 25 point spread last year against Wash. State. I believe that Washington State might be the one of the WORST teams in college football right now. It seems crazy to lay this many points, but the line has actually expanded since it came out at -42.

**Thorpe** · 10-15-08, 10:30 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

Play #5: Arizona (+3) (bought the half point)

Cal can really light the scoreboard up with their passing attack, but this week they face a very talented Arizona defense that SPECIALIZES in stopping the pass. Washington put up 181 yards of passing, which is a season high for this Arizona defense. The reason is partly because Washington was blown out 41-14. Arizona has lost some disapointing road games this season against New Mexico and Stanford, but have played really well at home. The Wildcats are 4-0 SU and ATS at home this season. Cal's only loss this year came in a road game against Maryland. They put up over 400 yards of passing on Maryland, but couldn't overcome an early defecit. The last game these 2 teams played at Arizona was a 24-20 win for 'Zona. Cal was favored 2 touchdowns in that game. Since 1992, Cal is 10-23 as a road favorite and 0-6 as a road favorite of 3 points or less. That is a HUGE trend to me, because it shows how bad Cal is on the road. Those trends aren't really any better in the last 3 seasons either. I expect Cal to come out unmotivated and to be down early to an Arizona team that is underrated.

Arizona may have stopped the pass so far this year, but they have been pushed around by every team with a decent o line, and Cal has the best o line they will have seen so far. People always think Cal is Pass-Only team, but the truth is they have been a successful running team for years. Cal is 16-17 ATS on the road under Tedford and 18-15 SU.

Agree on a lot of your other picks though, like Iowa St.

**ICE-BLOOD** · 10-15-08, 10:35 PM

like the iowa play against wisc
hard to believe wisc might have a 4 game losing streak after this
dont think pj hill will do much against iowa's dee
wisc qb situation might actually give them an edge tho

**TPowell** · 10-15-08, 10:45 PM

I'm just not sold on Cal like I was early in the year. I knew they were talented, but I thought they would play better in their road games

**TPowell** · 10-16-08, 01:12 AM

anybody have any opinions on the write ups? Just wanted to see if my thoughts on the games were legit

**ZBOIZ** · 10-16-08, 01:18 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

you think Alabama is the class of SEC Z? They've did all they could do so far, but outside of Georgia who have they beat? The SEC is a weird conference and I wouldnt be surprised to see Bama drop a couple of games down the stretch

You know dont get me wrong Bama is a good team but they will faulter towards the end! If I was a man that betted online I would do a sprinkle job on Ole Miss Moneyline! No one in the SEC will go underfeated! Saban and company also dont play well at home! They barely beat Kentucky and Tulane! Remember this guys!

OLE MISS +17 IS A HUGE PLAY FOR ME!

**TPowell** · 10-16-08, 04:32 PM

6 more possible plays (might have write ups later)

Missouri (+5)
Kentucky (-7)
Tulsa (-17.5)
SMU/Houston OVER 70
UCLA (+1.5)
Middle Tennessee State (+14.5)

**TPowell** · 10-17-08, 02:01 PM

Iowa/Wisconsin UNDER 42
Miss. State/Tennessee UNDER 38
Vandy/Georgia UNDER 43.5
Penn State/Michigan OVER 46.5

**TPowell** · 10-17-08, 03:14 PM

Updated Card

Colorado State (+21.5)
Ole Miss (+14)
Georgia Tech (-2)
Virginia Tech (+3)
Arizona (+3)
Duke (+4.5)
Iowa State (+8)
South Carolina (+3.5)
Iowa (-3)
Northwestern (-3)
USC (-42)
Kentucky (-7)
Tulsa (-17.5)
Middle Tennessee State (+14.5)

Totals

SMU/Houston OVER 70
Iowa/Wisconsin UNDER 42
Miss. State/Tennessee UNDER 38
Vandy/Georgia UNDER 43.5

Teasers

Pays 120/100
UConn (+6)
Miss. State (+14.5)
Vandy (+21.5)

Pays 100/100

Maryland (+10.5)
Virginia Tech (+10.5)
South Carolina (+10.5)

**l7ustin** · 10-18-08, 05:25 AM

Good to see you didnt take the Missouri bet, Texas rolls today!