Front Page NCAAF Picks (Week 7, Oct 9-11)

**Willie Bee** · 10-08-08, 10:57 AM

UTEP Miners -5 cover at home vs. Tulane Green Wave

Game Time: 10/11/2008 09:05 PM -
By: Brad Diamond | playbook.com

Injuries have taken their toll on the Green Wave after losing two more starters last week vs. Army. Lay the points Saturday on the UTEP Miners at home against Tulane.

After seeing the game film of Tulane and Army, you must wonder what happened to the improving Green Wave.

Injuries!

Last week against a physically adept club Tulane felt the injury bug once again, losing seven players. Three of the injuries were serious, with two starters out indefinitely. The Wave entered the season with 48 lettermen, but out of that bunch only 39 are participating. Now they face a UTEP club looking for revenge (34-19 loss in 2007) after suffering a difficult road loss last season.

Recall, the key to the Tulane offense last year (Matt Forte 2,127 yards rushing) is now a Chicago Bears running back. Without much push up front, the Greenies will once again play into a club that can throw down the field. In what should be a high-scoring affair, UTEP-37 Tulane-28.

Free Pick: UTEP -5 (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 10-08-08, 10:59 AM

North Carolina Tar Heels -7½ vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Game Time: 10/11/2008 03:30 PM -
By: Ross Benjamin | phoenixsports.com

Butch Davis has the Tar Heels back in the Top 25 for the first time in seven years, and North Carolina has too much speed for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish this Saturday.

North Carolina looks like the real deal and a team that is getting better every week. Butch Davis is mapping out the same blueprint he did at Miami with great recruiting classes filled with speed and athleticism.

Notre Dame is an improved team but they will be overmatched versus the Tar Heels on the road. The Irish were dominated in their only road game thus far at Michigan St. Notre Dame’s four wins have come over teams with a cumulative record of 8-13.

Any non-conference home favorite of 18.0 or less that is off back-to-back SU and ATS wins, the last of which they scored 34 points or more, they have won 10 or more of their last 22 games, and is facing an opponent off a favorite ATS win that they covered by 17.0 points or less is 0-15 SU and ATS since 1980. The favorite has won those 15 games by an average of 25.3 points per game. Play on North Carolina minus the points.

Free Pick: North Carolina -7½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 10-09-08, 09:57 AM

Cincinnati Bearcats -7½ vs. struggling Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Game Time: 10/11/2008 12:00 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

It's Cincinnati's Big East opener, and they get to play at home against a struggling Rutgers. Back the Bearcats in this one Saturday when they host the Scarlet Knights.

Rutgers has fallen and fallen quickly. After winning 21 games over the last two seasons, the Scarlet Knights have won just once in five tries this year and that victory came against FCS team Morgan St.

This past weekend, they lost at West Virginia in a game that should not have been as close as the final score ended up. Rutgers was outgained by 63 total yards including 103 yards on the ground. They were getting two touchdowns and despite the loss, they're getting close to a touchdown less against an arguably better team.

The Bearcats had no problem with Marshall on Friday night and the significant part was the rushing edge. Cincinnati outgained the Thundering Herd 203-90 on the ground and it should be able to get an edge against Rutgers as well. The Bearcats have had Rutgers number the last two years as they were able to win both meetings and even more importantly, they were able to win the rushing battle both times. And this was with Ray Rice in the backfield for Rutgers who is now gone.

Right now Rutgers is relying upon the passing game to generate offense, notably receiver Kenny Britt, who is coming off his eighth 100-yard game for the Scarlet Knights. The problem now is that Rutgers squares off against arguably the two best corners in the Big East in Mike Mickens and DeAngelo Smith. Mickens has already tied Cincinnati's career record for interceptions with 12, three of which were returned for touchdowns, while Smith shared the national lead in interceptions with eight in 2007.

Overall Rutgers is ranked 83rd in the nation in total offense and 100th in scoring offense. This comes after finishing 18th and 33rd respectively a season ago. It shows how valuable a running back like Rice means to an offense. Cincinnati is 54th in total defense but it should be ranked higher as most of the defensive damage came against Oklahoma as it allowed 592 total yards. Take that out and the defense is allowing 280.5 ypg in the other four games which would put it 22nd in the country.

This is a double-revenge game for Rutgers but means little at this point, especially with it being on the road. The revenge road angle is very overrated in my opinion and it is an angle that should not be used in a game such as this. The Bearcats are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a losing record and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.

Look for the domination to continue as Cincinnati begins Big East action with an easy victory. Play the Bearcats for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Cincinnati -7½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 10-09-08, 01:02 PM

Texas Tech Red Raiders -20½ roll vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers

Game Time: 10/11/2008 03:00 PM -
By: Stephen Nover | experts.covers.com

The Nebraska defense is porous, and that's a bad thing when facing the high-octane Texas Tech offense. Lay the points on the Red Raiders at home vs. the Cornhuskers.

It was noble of first-year Nebraska coach Bo Pelini to take the blame and apologize to the state for the Cornhuskers' miserable showing in a 52-17 loss to Missouri last week. But it's not Pelini's fault. He's a good coach, better than what Nebraska has had. The problem is the Cornhuskers haven't converted to 21st century football yet.

Their defense isn't quick or fast enough to compete with high octane spread offenses such as Missouri and now Texas Tech. The Cornhuskers can have all the motivation and turn in a great effort, but they simply are overmatched here. Now that the point spread has gone down to less than three touchdowns, the time is right to play Texas Tech.

The Red Raiders have the nation's No. 2 offense, averaging 583.3 yards per game, and the No. 1 passing attack. They beat the Cornhuskers, 70-10, when Nebraska last visited Lubbock four years ago. Texas Tech coach Mike Leach isn't the kind of coach to let up either like Missouri actually did last week. He'll run up a score for poll purposes.

Texas Tech buried Kansas State 58-28 last week. Graham Harrell was 38-for-51 with six touchdown passes for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders received good ground support, too, from Shannon Woods and Baron Batch.

Any optimism from Nebraska's narrow loss to Virginia Tech two weeks ago faded with its surrender to Missouri. Now the Cornhuskers go on the road for the first time. They've allowed an average of 52.6 points in their last four road games. The sad fact is Nebraska can't stop Big 12 opponents. They are giving up an average of 47 points in their last eight conference games.

Free Pick: Texas Tech -20½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 10-10-08, 10:40 AM

Notre Dame Fighting Irish +7½ at North Carolina Tar Heels

Game Time: 10/11/2008 03:30 PM -
By: Doc's Sports | 10starpicks.com

Saturday's contest in Chapel Hill should go down to the wire. Grab the points and take Jimmy Clausen and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at the North Carolina Tar Heels.

The North Carolina Tar Heels are getting way too much respect since they are playing a team that has improved every week, especially on the offensive side of the football. Notre Dame can score point with QB Jimmy Clausen and expect this to be a shootout that goes down to the wire.

UNC is still without their No. 1 quarterback in T.J. Yates and I question how strong their offense actually is. They lost to Virginia Tech at home and were down early to Miami before mounting a comeback. That game meant a lot to Coach Butch Davis, since he had ties to the U.

This will be a game that goes down to the wire and getting this many points makes it a strong play with the dog.

Free Pick: Notre Dame +7½ (-101)

**Willie Bee** · 10-10-08, 10:41 AM

Virginia Cavaliers +6½ to upset the East Carolina Pirates

Game Time: 10/11/2008 12:00 PM -
By: Dr. Bob | drbobsports.com

East Carolina came out of the gate strong this season but has since cooled down. Look for the Virginia Cavaliers to pull off the upset at home when they host the Pirates.

East Carolina started the season with upset wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia, but the Pirates defense has been horrible since losing star LB Quentin Cotton in their Game 3 win over Tulane.

East Carolina was 0.6 yards per play better than average defensively in their first three games, but the Pirates have allowed 6.5 yppl in two games without Cotton to NC State and Houston attacks that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team. ECU is probably not going to be as bad as that going forward, but they are certainly worse than their mediocre season numbers (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl).

Virginia is coming off a confidence building 31-0 win over Maryland and the Cavaliers’ attack, while 0.9 yppl worse than average offensively, should have some success in this game now that star running back Cedric Peerman appears to finally be healthy (he ran for 110 yards on 17 carries against Maryland after running the ball just 20 times total in the first 4 games). Their defense looked horrible in their opener against USC (7.6 yppl and 52 points allowed), but the Cavaliers actually are better than average defensively (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defensive team) and East Carolina is actually below average offensively (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team).

Virginia is actually pretty close to ECU in terms of compensated yards per play numbers and the Cavs have better special teams and are at home, where they are 27-12 ATS under Al Groh when not favored by more than 23 points. I’m going to call for an upset, as my math slightly favors Virginia in this game.

Prediction: Virginia-22 East Carolina-21

Free Pick: Virginia +6½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 10-10-08, 10:42 AM

Central Michigan Chippewas -7½ to ground Temple Owls

Game Time: 10/11/2008 04:00 PM -
By: Dave Malinsky | experts.covers.com

This is a cheap spread on a Chippewas squad at home in Mount Pleasant against the Owls. Cash in on Central Michigan Saturday afternoon in MAC play against Temple.

There are few things that we do each week that are more important than “autopsies,” those processes of breaking down the games that go far beyond traditional methodologies, and in turn can lead to the kind of insights that can have us far ahead of the marketplace moving forward. And there can be nothing better in terms of finding future edges than an autopsy that shows that a patient was not even dead. That sets this one up for us.

In terms of the scoreboard result, our 4* play against Temple last week was as bad of a call as we have made on the college gridirons this season, and perhaps in several years. We were bucking a team that was struggling badly on offense because of so many freshmen playing key roles, and one that had not scored a touchdown in consecutive games since losing starting QB Adam DiMichele, and turning the reins over to red-shirt freshman QB Chester Stewart. Note that it was not even a case of Stewart truly winning the job anyway – Al Golden wants to red-shirt Vaughn Charlton, who had starting experience LY, and was merely using Stewart to bridge the gap until DiMichele can return.

Our interest peaked even more when Stewart did not practice last week, and was still wearing a walking boot on Friday. So what exactly did we learn in both viewing, and then doing a further autopsy on Temple’s 28-10 win at Miami O.? Mostly that the RedHawks are much worse than we thought they were. As for that Temple offense, note that the Owls had only 11 first downs, managed just 2.9 yards per carry, and for the second time in as many starts, Stewart completed less than 50 percent of his passes. It was not a case of Temple being good, but rather Miami being bad.

But that is not how the markets reacted. Miami closed at -7 last week, and now we find a much better Central Michigan team laying only -7½. It shows that the marketplace significantly upgraded Temple through that scoreboard result, despite the fact that many of the Owl weaknesses were still most evident (particularly the penalty issues that we wrote about last week, with Temple picking up nine more, taking the season total to 50 flags for 428 yards in only six games). And now we get the excellent timing of the Chippewas not only having two weeks to prepare, but of that very Temple scoreboard result also telling them that they can not take this opponent lightly.

This now gives us a veteran team (11 senior starters on offense and defense, with eight juniors) off of back-to-back M.A.C. titles that will play with a special focus on Homecoming weekend. And with the precision of QB Dan LeFevour leading the way they can exploit a young Owl defense. LeFevour leads the conference in total offense and is 11th nationally at 317.8 yards per game, but what we like even more is how this offense values the football, with only four turnovers in 363 snaps. His experience has allowed for a lot of no-huddle looks, which can befuddle a young opponent that did not face them last year, and will be on their heels throughout.

That also sets a tempo that forces Stewart and the Temple offense to have to open up from behind, something that they lack the ability to do. It all adds up to a game that can break wide open, yet is being offered at a bargain rate.

Free Pick: Central Michigan -7½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 10-10-08, 10:56 AM

South Carolina Gamecocks +1 at Kentucky Wildcats

Game Time: 10/11/2008 12:30 PM
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks have dropped Rich Brooks' Wildcats three straight years by an average score of roughly 35-19. Side with South Carolina on the road at Kentucky.

Kentucky prepares to play host to South Carolina in a key SEC battle after taking part in a hard-fought and emotional 17-14 loss against the Alabama Crimson Tide last week. That result and effort will have the Wildcats in a letdown situation, making them susceptible to a slow start.

Meanwhile South Carolina behind, QB Chris Smelley, looked fantastic in upsetting Ole Miss 31-24 on the road last week, and will be primed to keep that positive momentum working for them in this spot. I am expecting Steve Spurrier's team to come out here with all guns blazing and take an early lead against an excellent but tired Kentucky D. This also makes the Gamecocks a viable first half bet.

I know winning on the road in the SEC is tough to achieve, especially two weeks in a row, but thats what I am betting will happen. It must be noted that Spurrier teams have owned this Wildcats program in the past, winning 15 straight confrontations, including three straight against Kentucky coach Rich Brooks.

Projected Score: South Carolina-21 Kentucky-17

Free Pick: South Carolina +1 (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 10-11-08, 09:58 AM

Georgia Bulldogs -12½ too much for Tennessee Volunteers

Game Time: 10/11/2008 03:30 PM -
By: Bryan Leonard | experts.covers.com

Tennessee simply doesn't have an offense capable of moving and scoring against this Georgia defense. Lay the points on the Dawgs at home vs. the Volunteers today.

This Volunteer offense has been pathetic. They managed 24 points in overtime in the opener at UCLA. That was with Rick Neuheisel coaching his first game at the school and the defensive system was simply not in place. UCLA then permitted 59, 31 and 36 points to their next three opponents.

The Volunteers then exploded for 35 points against UAB, a team that allowed 49 to Florida Atlantic the previous week. In the last three games Tennessee has managed 6, 12 and 13 points. In those games they had just 34 total first downs. Last week they managed just 225 total yards to MAC entrant Northern Illinois, at home! Simply put this offense will not score double digits against a defense as talented as the Bulldogs.

Georgia has plenty of motivation and will take out some frustrations on the Volunteers. First off the last time they took the field they were pounded at home 41-30 by Alabama in a game that wasn't even that close. Now with an extra week to prepare they take on a Tennessee team that cost them the SEC East a year ago and a likely chance to play in the National Championship game. They lost to the Volunteers 35-14, one of only two defeats on the season. They already exacted revenge on South Carolina, now it's Tennessee's turn.

The Bulldogs have been hampered by injuries but this is a very deep and talented squad. You can bet they can't wait to take the field and show the nation that they are better than they played against the Tide. Tennessee simply doesn't have the skill position talent to compete in the SEC this season. And based on their play last week winning in the MAC would even be a problem.

Free Pick: Georgia -12½ (-106)