Mid-majors getting job done at betting window
Mid-majors getting job done at betting window
Led by the passing of Max Hall, Brigham Young moved to 5-0 on the season with a 34-14 win at Utah State this past week, making the Cougars one of five mid-majors to still possess an unbeaten mark. Ball State (6-0) and Tulsa (5-0) are perfect in the ranks and at the pay window, 5-0 and 4-0 ATS respectively. While the media focuses on the bigger schools, some bettors are cleaning up with the smaller fish.
The 2008 college football season up to this point can be described in two words: Ball State.
The Cardinals are 6-0 SU and 5-0 ATS, one of eight teams still perfect at the pay window. They’re in the rankings for the first time in team history at No. 25 on the AP poll. And paving the way for Ball State’s ascension: yet another bad week for ranked clubs at 7-8-1 ATS (13-3 SU) versus teams outside the Top 25. The Cardinals get a seat at the big table while Fresno State and UConn drop out of the polls following upset losses.
Week 6 was the first conference game for both the Bulldogs and the Huskies, but that’s no excuse for Fresno State’s 32-29 overtime loss to a decimated Hawaii program that was getting 21 points. UConn’s 38-12 defeat at North Carolina (+8) was unremarkable by comparison, and South Florida’s 26-21 loss to Pitt (+13½) on Thursday night was hardly a surprise given USF’s injury situation.
The Bulls and the Bulldogs had to suffer the indignity of losing at home. They weren’t alone. Road teams went 28-21-3 ATS in Week 6, or 57.1 percent. Road favorites were even better at 11-6-2 ATS (64.7 percent). If you’re looking for a larger sample size, away teams are 143-123-7 ATS on the season, enough to earn a profit at 53.8 percent.
One loss won’t necessarily ruin a team’s season – but two losses will almost certainly keep a mid-major like Fresno State out of the BCS bowl picture no matter how well things go from here. Ball State is one of five mid-majors with an undefeated record going into Week 7's college football matchups:
Tulsa is the only unranked program of the five, and the Golden Hurricane are very close at No. 27 in the AP voting. They appear to have the easiest path to an undefeated regular season coming out of Conference USA. There is the matter of a Nov. 1 date at Arkansas, but the rebuilding Razorbacks (2-3 SU, 0-4 ATS) aren’t your typical fearsome SEC opponents – they’re one of the worst teams in the FBS.
Mid-majors are a traditional watering hole for sharp handicappers. Northern Illinois (2-3 SU, 4-0 ATS) joins the Cardinals and Golden Hurricane among college football’s perfect teams against the betting odds. NIU and Ball State share the honor of carrying the flag for a resurgent MAC conference that also hosts ex-doormat Temple at 5-1 ATS.
The mid-majors get their betting value from playing in relative anonymity. The Big 12 is anything but anonymous, and they’ve got a stranglehold on the polls. Visibility hasn’t prevented the conference’s most famous programs from making a healthy profit; the eternal rivals from Oklahoma and Texas are a combined 9-0 ATS, covering double-digit spreads every time.
The Big 12 is kicking sand in the SEC’s face right now. The Southeastern landscape is hardly recognizable – Vanderbilt (5-0 SU and ATS) is leading the East. Alabama (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) remains on top of the West, but that hold looks shakier after Saturday’s 17-14 nailbiter over visiting Kentucky (+15½). Auburn has been particularly awful at 4-2 SU and 1-5 ATS. And we’ve already seen what’s happened to Arkansas in its first year under new management.
The good news for the SEC is that the Florida Gators have bounced back from their Week 5 fiasco, dumping the Razorbacks 38-7 to improve to 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. And the Pac-10’s USC Trojans (3-1 SU and ATS) also got their house in order with a 44-10 dismantling of Oregon. These are two recent national champions who were absolutely dominant until blowing a tire at the same time. They’ll continue to have betting value while the Big 12 hogs the spotlight.
Led by the passing of Max Hall, Brigham Young moved to 5-0 on the season with a 34-14 win at Utah State this past week, making the Cougars one of five mid-majors to still possess an unbeaten mark. Ball State (6-0) and Tulsa (5-0) are perfect in the ranks and at the pay window, 5-0 and 4-0 ATS respectively. While the media focuses on the bigger schools, some bettors are cleaning up with the smaller fish.
The 2008 college football season up to this point can be described in two words: Ball State.
The Cardinals are 6-0 SU and 5-0 ATS, one of eight teams still perfect at the pay window. They’re in the rankings for the first time in team history at No. 25 on the AP poll. And paving the way for Ball State’s ascension: yet another bad week for ranked clubs at 7-8-1 ATS (13-3 SU) versus teams outside the Top 25. The Cardinals get a seat at the big table while Fresno State and UConn drop out of the polls following upset losses.
Week 6 was the first conference game for both the Bulldogs and the Huskies, but that’s no excuse for Fresno State’s 32-29 overtime loss to a decimated Hawaii program that was getting 21 points. UConn’s 38-12 defeat at North Carolina (+8) was unremarkable by comparison, and South Florida’s 26-21 loss to Pitt (+13½) on Thursday night was hardly a surprise given USF’s injury situation.
The Bulls and the Bulldogs had to suffer the indignity of losing at home. They weren’t alone. Road teams went 28-21-3 ATS in Week 6, or 57.1 percent. Road favorites were even better at 11-6-2 ATS (64.7 percent). If you’re looking for a larger sample size, away teams are 143-123-7 ATS on the season, enough to earn a profit at 53.8 percent.
One loss won’t necessarily ruin a team’s season – but two losses will almost certainly keep a mid-major like Fresno State out of the BCS bowl picture no matter how well things go from here. Ball State is one of five mid-majors with an undefeated record going into Week 7's college football matchups:
- Ball State 6-0 SU, 5-0 ATS
- Tulsa 5-0 SU, 4-0 ATS
- Utah 6-0 SU, 2-2-1 ATS
- BYU 5-0 SU, 2-2 ATS
- Boise State 4-0 SU, 2-1 ATS
Tulsa is the only unranked program of the five, and the Golden Hurricane are very close at No. 27 in the AP voting. They appear to have the easiest path to an undefeated regular season coming out of Conference USA. There is the matter of a Nov. 1 date at Arkansas, but the rebuilding Razorbacks (2-3 SU, 0-4 ATS) aren’t your typical fearsome SEC opponents – they’re one of the worst teams in the FBS.
Mid-majors are a traditional watering hole for sharp handicappers. Northern Illinois (2-3 SU, 4-0 ATS) joins the Cardinals and Golden Hurricane among college football’s perfect teams against the betting odds. NIU and Ball State share the honor of carrying the flag for a resurgent MAC conference that also hosts ex-doormat Temple at 5-1 ATS.
The mid-majors get their betting value from playing in relative anonymity. The Big 12 is anything but anonymous, and they’ve got a stranglehold on the polls. Visibility hasn’t prevented the conference’s most famous programs from making a healthy profit; the eternal rivals from Oklahoma and Texas are a combined 9-0 ATS, covering double-digit spreads every time.
The Big 12 is kicking sand in the SEC’s face right now. The Southeastern landscape is hardly recognizable – Vanderbilt (5-0 SU and ATS) is leading the East. Alabama (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) remains on top of the West, but that hold looks shakier after Saturday’s 17-14 nailbiter over visiting Kentucky (+15½). Auburn has been particularly awful at 4-2 SU and 1-5 ATS. And we’ve already seen what’s happened to Arkansas in its first year under new management.
The good news for the SEC is that the Florida Gators have bounced back from their Week 5 fiasco, dumping the Razorbacks 38-7 to improve to 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. And the Pac-10’s USC Trojans (3-1 SU and ATS) also got their house in order with a 44-10 dismantling of Oregon. These are two recent national champions who were absolutely dominant until blowing a tire at the same time. They’ll continue to have betting value while the Big 12 hogs the spotlight.