Baylor +27

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  • WestsidePete
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 07-19-07
    • 8049

    #1
    Baylor +27
    Baylor +27 -110 3 units

    Oklahoma, the new #1 team in the nation, is very good. But this smells like a trap game....27 point favorite on the road a week before playing Texas vs a Baylor team with a good coach hungry for respect. With USC, Georgia, and Florida losing the Oklahoma - Texas game will be huge. It's hard to imagine Oklahoma being 100% focused on this game. Baylor is not the horible team they used to be. Robert Griffin is difficult to defend, as he can throw down field and he keeps the defense off balance with his abilty to run. He has solid good numbers for a freshman (seven passing TDs, five rushing TDs and no INTs). Jay Finley is averaging 8.1 yards per carry. Baylor should be able to put some points up here. The question is how much energy is Oklahoma willing to spend with the biggest game of the year coming up? The Sooners are 5-11 ATS the week before Texas the last sixteen years. Add in the fact that Baylor is rested and hungry, I feel the big home dog covers in this game.
  • element1286
    Restricted User
    • 02-25-08
    • 3370

    #2
    I'm with ya.
    Comment
    • M.W.
      SBR MVP
      • 09-07-08
      • 1668

      #3
      Sounds good.
      Comment
      • manofmyth
        SBR High Roller
        • 09-19-08
        • 115

        #4
        i'm on this one as well.
        Comment
        • bosterosoy
          SBR High Roller
          • 09-02-08
          • 156

          #5
          Agree.
          Comment
          • Mr Handicapable
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 09-23-07
            • 6067

            #6
            I'm considering Baylor Over 17.5 here! Their D is weak enough to give up a ton of points and make it hard to cover but their offense should score either way....especially in garbage time! Freshman Robert Griffin & Coach Art Briles are both the real deal! I pounded Baylor vs Wash State and hit their team total easily against UConn! They're definitely still underrated at this point!
            Comment
            • BobHarvey
              SBR MVP
              • 07-08-08
              • 3987

              #7
              Laying 27 on the road and Texas coming up next week, I think it's very good play.
              Comment
              • Lout84
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 11-09-07
                • 580

                #8
                This is by far the toughest defense that Griffin has faced in his short time in the NCAA. Oklahoma will be scoring at least 49 points against a very bad Baylor defense. The question you need to ask your self is, "Do I think Baylor is going to score at least 24?" My answer would be no. Baylor is not going to score 21 against OU. Lol. You guys are funny. Baylor scored about 24 against UConn.. and their defense doesn't even compare to OU's. Bob Stoops knows how to stop running QBs.. just ask Vince Young. If you are leaning on Baylor, then I would save your money.. there are much better plays out there.
                Comment
                • element1286
                  Restricted User
                  • 02-25-08
                  • 3370

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Lout84
                  This is by far the toughest defense that Griffin has faced in his short time in the NCAA. Oklahoma will be scoring at least 49 points against a very bad Baylor defense. The question you need to ask your self is, "Do I think Baylor is going to score at least 24?" My answer would be no. Baylor is not going to score 21 against OU. Lol. You guys are funny. Baylor scored about 24 against UConn.. and their defense doesn't even compare to OU's. Bob Stoops knows how to stop running QBs.. just ask Vince Young. If you are leaning on Baylor, then I would save your money.. there are much better plays out there.
                  Eh, you are assuming that Oklahoma puts up 50, which is far from certain. It will be tough for them to get up for this game, especially on the road with Texas coming up, and this being Baylor's shot to prove themselves.
                  Comment
                  • Lout84
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 11-09-07
                    • 580

                    #10
                    Originally posted by element1286
                    Eh, you are assuming that Oklahoma puts up 50, which is far from certain. It will be tough for them to get up for this game, especially on the road with Texas coming up, and this being Baylor's shot to prove themselves.
                    All you can do is assume. You are assuming that Oklahoma scores, what? 35 points? They scored 35 against (at the time) the best defense in the NCAA in TCU. They put up over 50 against the first 3 teams they played this season.. and Baylor is worse than 2 of those teams.

                    I can tell you that Bob Stoops is going to allow Bradford to pad his stats because he wants him to win the Heisman votes. So running up the score against Baylor is not out of the question. If you heard the speech Coach Stoops gave to OU, then you would know they are not taking this Baylor team lightly. They plan on staying #1 in the polls next week and plan to win all of their games this season convincingly.

                    Again, not telling you bet on OU, just don't bet against them. Save your money, there are much better games to bet on this week.
                    Comment
                    • dmiles1021
                      SBR MVP
                      • 09-10-07
                      • 1412

                      #11
                      hope you are right pete, i always like your plays GL!
                      Comment
                      • element1286
                        Restricted User
                        • 02-25-08
                        • 3370

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Lout84
                        All you can do is assume. You are assuming that Oklahoma scores, what? 35 points? They scored 35 against (at the time) the best defense in the NCAA in TCU. They put up over 50 against the first 3 teams they played this season.. and Baylor is worse than 2 of those teams.

                        I can tell you that Bob Stoops is going to allow Bradford to pad his stats because he wants him to win the Heisman votes. So running up the score against Baylor is not out of the question. If you heard the speech Coach Stoops gave to OU, then you would know they are not taking this Baylor team lightly. They plan on staying #1 in the polls next week and plan to win all of their games this season convincingly.

                        Again, not telling you bet on OU, just don't bet against them. Save your money, there are much better games to bet on this week.
                        Last year, Oklahoma scored 61.5 points per game the first four games of the year. Then lost at Colorado 27-24, the week before the Texas game, and two weeks before Missou. Seems like a similar situation as Texas is next week and Kansas is the week after.
                        Comment
                        • VegasDave
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 01-03-07
                          • 8056

                          #13
                          You guys are underestimating how fast this Oklahoma defense is... Baylor will have trouble moving the ball.
                          Comment
                          • Mr Handicapable
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 09-23-07
                            • 6067

                            #14
                            Bob Stoops knows how to stop running QBs.. just ask Vince Young.

                            Robert Griffin is a freshman but he isn't just a runner! Guess you missed the 1st TD pass vs UConn....beautiful floater to the TE right over the defenders hand! Provided that Griffins leg holds up...this Briles team will score on OU too! I'm considering Over 17.5 w/Baylor but maybe Over 62 deserves more study w/2 spread teams w/a ton of speed!

                            OU 51
                            Baylor 23
                            Comment
                            • WestsidePete
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 07-19-07
                              • 8049

                              #15
                              Originally posted by element1286
                              Last year, Oklahoma scored 61.5 points per game the first four games of the year. Then lost at Colorado 27-24, the week before the Texas game, and two weeks before Missou. Seems like a similar situation as Texas is next week and Kansas is the week after.
                              Key statement right here....remember they are 5-11 ATS the past 16 years in the game before playing Texas, are on the road and need to cover 4 TD's to win vs the spread...
                              Comment
                              • Lout84
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 11-09-07
                                • 580

                                #16
                                Originally posted by element1286
                                Last year, Oklahoma scored 61.5 points per game the first four games of the year. Then lost at Colorado 27-24, the week before the Texas game, and two weeks before Missou. Seems like a similar situation as Texas is next week and Kansas is the week after.
                                I know what happened "last year", but you need to look past last year. This is the best Oklahoma team since the year 2003.

                                Here are OU's games before the Texas game for the past 5 years:

                                (2003) 53-7 W
                                (2004) 28-13 W
                                (2005) 43-21 W
                                (2006) 59-0 W
                                (2007) 27-24 L

                                This is Baylor we are talking about! Headed by a true freshman QB! Facing OU, who have a very good shot at playing for the national title. This game is going to be a joke. I could see the final being 56-3. But, realistically I think it will be 52-17. OU is going to romp the Baylor Bears.
                                Comment
                                • Lout84
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 11-09-07
                                  • 580

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Mr Handicapable
                                  Bob Stoops knows how to stop running QBs.. just ask Vince Young.

                                  Robert Griffin is a freshman but he isn't just a runner! Guess you missed the 1st TD pass vs UConn....beautiful floater to the TE right over the defenders hand! Provided that Griffins leg holds up...this Briles team will score on OU too! I'm considering Over 17.5 w/Baylor but maybe Over 62 deserves more study w/2 spread teams w/a ton of speed!

                                  OU 51
                                  Baylor 23
                                  I see this Griffin kid as a lesser version of Pat White with no talent around him.
                                  Comment
                                  • Lout84
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 11-09-07
                                    • 580

                                    #18
                                    The OU/Baylor spread fell to -24.5

                                    Does anyone know why? Oklahoma is looking freaking amazing now.
                                    Comment
                                    • LVHerbie
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 09-15-05
                                      • 6344

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Lout84
                                      The OU/Baylor spread fell to -24.5

                                      Does anyone know why? Oklahoma is looking freaking amazing now.
                                      I read elsewhere that Dr. Bob was on this play... kindof disappointed as I was waiting/hoping for +27 to pop back up...
                                      Last edited by LVHerbie; 10-03-08, 03:17 PM.
                                      Comment
                                      • Lout84
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 11-09-07
                                        • 580

                                        #20
                                        Who is Dr Bob?
                                        Comment
                                        • sweetpete57@
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 11-09-06
                                          • 1116

                                          #21
                                          I don't think this is a look ahead game at all. OU is #1 and wit hall the upsets and near upsets they won't take this gam lightly. There may be several undefeated teams at the end vying for the title game, and they won't want to slip in the rankings. I'm making small play OU -27
                                          "You Can't Outfox a Fox" -Dapper Capper
                                          Comment
                                          • Biff Webster
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 10-01-08
                                            • 366

                                            #22
                                            I show the line at -25 now, i might have to jump on this.
                                            Comment
                                            • Lout84
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 11-09-07
                                              • 580

                                              #23
                                              I have the line at -24.5 on www.nine.com.

                                              Is the line going back up??? I am already on at -27, but now that it is down, I am considering doubling down. Baylor has played a bunch of weenies this year. Oklahoma is the real deal on offense and defense. Baylor wont score more than 21 against OU, and that is being generous! I look for OU to put up at least 49 points on a bad Baylor defense. OU will most likely break the 50 point barrier as they have done on 3/4 of their games this year.
                                              Last edited by Lout84; 10-03-08, 01:39 PM.
                                              Comment
                                              • M.W.
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 09-07-08
                                                • 1668

                                                #24
                                                Here are OU's games before the Texas game for the past 5 years:

                                                (2003) 53-7 W
                                                (2004) 28-13 W
                                                (2005) 43-21 W
                                                (2006) 59-0 W
                                                (2007) 27-24 L
                                                One at a time.

                                                2003: -21 at Iowa State

                                                OU won and covered 53-7

                                                OU was off to a great start. But OU had also beaten UT 3 straight years by a total of 88 points, so the lookahead factor was probably a bit weaker.

                                                ISU had given up on the season and was in the midst of a 10-game losing streak straight up and against the spread. Totally different from Baylor's situation.

                                                2004: -25 home vs. TTU

                                                OU won 28-13 and did not cover

                                                2005: -7 home vs. K State

                                                OU won and covered 43-21

                                                OU was off a 41-24 loss at UCLA and had something to prove.

                                                2006: -28.5 home vs. MTSU

                                                OU won and covered 59-0

                                                OU was off the scandalous "loss" at Oregon and was generally pissed off and took it out on the Blue Raiders.

                                                2007: -23.5 at Colorado

                                                OU had lost two straight to Texas. Nothing had happened the previous week to get OU focused on the pre-UT opponent (OU was 4-0 SU & ATS), and that opponent was not imploding.

                                                OU lost straight up 27-24.

                                                None of these scenarios do anything to support your claim that Oklahoma will not be "flat" this week.
                                                Comment
                                                • I LUV (.) (.)
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 08-02-08
                                                  • 224

                                                  #25
                                                  dont brag about pics

                                                  Dude dont jinx yourself.I see you losing bigtime now
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Lout84
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 11-09-07
                                                    • 580

                                                    #26
                                                    This is Baylor we are talking about... ok I give up, go ahead and lay down for Baylor, see if I care. This is a community of bettors to help each other out, and that is what I am trying to do.
                                                    Last edited by Lout84; 10-03-08, 05:34 PM.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Crayzee
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 10-27-06
                                                      • 4944

                                                      #27
                                                      the fact that the line has falen down to 24 should make this a no play on baylor

                                                      if anyone has taken baylor plus anything over 24 earlier
                                                      i strongly suggest you take oklahoma -24 or as low as you can get
                                                      and either try for the small middle or just wipe out your baylor bet
                                                      or bett double on oklahoma
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Lout84
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 11-09-07
                                                        • 580

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Crayzee
                                                        the fact that the line has falen down to 24 should make this a no play on baylor

                                                        if anyone has taken baylor plus anything over 24 earlier
                                                        i strongly suggest you take oklahoma -24 or as low as you can get
                                                        and either try for the small middle or just wipe out your baylor bet
                                                        or bett double on oklahoma
                                                        Amen. I do not want anyone losing any money on this game this week. I am a Big 12 capper, if you are leaning Baylor, then stay off the line.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Lout84
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 11-09-07
                                                          • 580

                                                          #29
                                                          OU 28-0 in the 1st Qtr. I really hope I talked some people out of betting on Baylor in this game. That would be a job well done.
                                                          Last edited by Lout84; 10-04-08, 12:25 PM.
                                                          Comment
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