Buddy's Plays 10/3-10/4

**pags11** · 10-02-08, 12:46 AM

buddybear,

with you on a couple of these...glad I'm not against you so far on any of them...keep up the good capping and upping your profit margin...

**LT Profits** · 10-02-08, 03:31 AM

I am on Iowa, Indiana and South Carolina myself.

**BuddyBear** · 10-02-08, 10:37 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I am on Iowa, Indiana and South Carolina myself.

Thanks LT. Actually South Carolina was something of an accident. It was +3, but when i bet it, it was +2 and I didn't even realize the change till I had confirmed the bet. I still like it at +2, but not as much as I did at +3.....

**LT Profits** · 10-02-08, 11:50 AM

Actually, South Carolina +120 ML only for me. And I only got +7 on Indiana. I did manage to squeeze out the +8.5 on Iowa, although I suspect it is a Dr. Bob play that will drop more.

**BuddyBear** · 10-02-08, 12:28 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Actually, South Carolina +120 ML only for me. And I only got +7 on Indiana. I did manage to squeeze out the +8.5 on Iowa, although I suspect it is a Dr. Bob play that will drop more.

Yeah, you really have to brace yourself Thursday afternoon. I woke up today and saw some big moves on Duke, Iowa State, Colorado, and a few others.

**PorkChop** · 10-02-08, 01:04 PM

How do you guys not love Wisconsin + 2?

Huge game at home, primetime, under the lights.
Statement Game
Ohio State hasnt looked sharp all season
Pryor or not. Wisconsin rolls!

**Dbldown11** · 10-02-08, 01:10 PM

Buddy-

I love your Wisconsin and Kentucky and Iowa plays im on all three big myself.

I also like your western kentucky play but didnt have the guts to bet it myself. I was leaning that way though

**LT Profits** · 10-02-08, 01:16 PM

I do lean Wiscy if I had to make a pick, but not nearly enough to make a play on them. I would need at least +3.5 there, which is not going to happen.

**BuddyBear** · 10-02-08, 01:35 PM

Originally posted by Dbldown11

Buddy-

I love your Wisconsin and Kentucky and Iowa plays im on all three big myself.

I also like your western kentucky play but didnt have the guts to bet it myself. I was leaning that way though

Thanks Dbldown...

Actually W.Kentucky was the first bet I made this week.

There is a very strong situational trend in college football that calls on betting against teams that have won 2 straight road games outright as an underdog and then are laying points at home.

The theory behind this is that this team tends to experience something of a letdown in the role of a favorite and at the same time their spread tends to be overinflated since they've won twice on the road as an underdog. Bettors reason that if they are good enough to win as an underdog (twice) then surely they are good enough to win as a favorite. Yet it does not dawn on these same people that there was a reason they were dogs two straight times. The fact that they are playing WKU only makes this a stronger play since it's hard to imagine having played a conference game (UNC) and then a prime time nationally televised game against a program like Nebraska and won...it's nearly impossible for a team to come with the same level of enthusiasm and interest for a team like WKU.

Good luck this weekend.....

**Dbldown11** · 10-02-08, 01:37 PM

thanks for your input on the game...you are giving me some confidence and go with my initial thought and make a play on W. Kentucky

**BuddyBear** · 10-03-08, 12:35 AM

Originally posted by Dbldown11

thanks for your input on the game...you are giving me some confidence and go with my initial thought and make a play on W. Kentucky

Definitely, but you are on your own if you take WKU! Do realize that WKU is still a program transitioning to D1-A status so there is a major talent differential between WKU and VTU to say the least. So you are not backing the "better" team in any absolute sense or realistically a team that has an outright shot of winning this game.

As I mentioned, this play is strictly a situational play and nothing else but I am fairly confident that WKU can be somewhat competitive and that VTU comes out sluggish for this game after having played two extremely difficult games on the road. They've also shown a tendency in the past to come out (at home) and struggle with inferior teams (2007: East Caroliana 17-7; Ohio 28-7--2006: Kent State 23-0).

Hopefully it works out.....

Good luck this weekend....

**so-classy#23** · 10-03-08, 02:14 AM

take BYU ML lock it up