Front Page NCAAF Picks (Week 6, Sep 30-Oct 4)

**Willie Bee** · 10-02-08, 10:52 AM

Indiana Hoosiers +7 to bite Minnesota Gophers

Indiana Hoosiers +7 to bite Minnesota Gophers

Game Time: 10/04/2008 12:00 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Indiana and Minnesota both have great offenses and bad defenses, but the fact that the Gophers have lost nine straight Big Ten games makes them vulnerable chalk.

We rate this battle between the Indiana Hoosiers and the Minnesota Gophers as a toss up, which naturally give value to the Hoosiers catching a touchdown in this spot.

Indiana has now dropped two straight after a 2-0 start, but they were on their way to a cover vs. a tough Michigan State team last week before fumbling on the MSU 20-yard line against a prevent defense with less than two minutes remaining.

In fact, the Hoosiers have had little trouble moving the ball this year, averaging an impressive 453.5 yards of offense per game including 249.0 yards on the ground. Much of this ground attack has come courtesy of versatile quarterback Kellen Lewis, who was dinged up last week and had to leave the game with a leg injury. He did look fine after re-entering that contest though.

Now, Minnesota has also been proficient offensively, averaging 33.2 points per game with a very balanced attack. However, while Indiana carried their offensive success over to Big Ten play, the Gophers were stifled somewhat by Ohio State last week, and that game marked their ninth consecutive conference loss stretching back to last season.

These clubs are like mirror images in that both have stout offenses and porous defenses, but the fact that Indiana has at least shown they can still score inside the conference while the Gophers are a vulnerable favorite given their Big Ten losing streak gives the Hoosiers the edge as decided dogs.

Free Pick: Indiana +7 (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 10-02-08, 10:53 AM

BYU and Utah State to soar Over 60

Game Time: 10/03/2008 08:00 PM -
By: Matt Foust | who2beton.com

BYU I trying to become this year’s BCS Buster, and the Cougar have scored over 40 points in every game except one, and they had two turnovers while scoring 28 in that game. Go Over at Utah State on Friday.

This week, the eighth ranked BYU Cougars will travel to Logan, Utah for a Friday evening tilt with WAC member Utah State. The Cougars of BYU are a heavy road favorite at -28, but we are going to go with the over 60 in this match-up.

The Cougars are having another outstanding season under Bronco Mendenhall and their offense is explosive to say the least. Quarterback Max Hall is a legitimate Heisman candidate with a 180.8 passer rating and he has thrown 15 touchdowns to just two interceptions.

The Cougars are averaging 43 points per game and have scored under 40 just once, when they scored 28 at Washington in a game where they turned the ball over twice. Against competition similar to Utah State, BYU has scored 59, 44, and 41. They will get over 40 in this game without question.

The Aggies of Utah State have faced a pretty tough schedule to this point in the season, and they have not faired well. They have squared off against two teams in BYU’s class in Oregon and Utah. They allowed 124 points in those two games and they scored 34. I look for them to chalk up anywhere from 14 to 20 in this contest and for BYU to easily take care of the rest and push the total over 60.

Things to consider: The Over is 7-3 in BYU’s last 10 as a road favorite with a total of 54½ or more. The Over is 3-1 the last five years when BYU played as road favorite in the month of September. The Over is 3-1 the last five years when BYU played as a road favorite coming off a win as a home favorite. The Over is 5-0 the last five years win Utah State played as a home underdog during the month of September.

Play the Over in this expected shootout.

Free Pick: BYU, Utah State Over 60 (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 10-03-08, 12:11 PM

BYU Cougers -28½ behind Max Hall at Utah St. Aggies

Game Time: 10/03/2008 08:00 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharvey.mysbrforum.com

With Max Hall under center and an extremely stingy defense to boot, look for the eighth-ranked BYU Cougars to easily get past the Utah State Aggies in Logan tonight.

BYU has got the perfect balance, a high-powered offense led by a Heisman caliber QB and a stingy defense. That combination will be tough for Utah State to overcome tonight.

The 8th-ranked Cougars are coming off back-to-back shutouts of UCLA and Wyoming and have eight straight wins over Utah State dating back to 1993. BYU will also look to extend the nation’s longest winning streak to 15 games. Max Hall has been the catalyst behind the Cougars blazing start. Hall has thrown for 1,284 yards and 15 touchdowns in four games, tying the school record with seven TDs against UCLA. He has completed 74% of his passes this year with just two picks.

The Aggies are just 1-3 this season and their hopes for the huge upset will rest on the shoulders of sophomore QB Diondre Borel, who threw for 191 yards and rushed for 97 yards in his first career start against Idaho two weeks ago. Utah State will also need a big game from running back Robert Turbin who rushed for 123 yards in the victory over the Vandals.

Following a cumulative 103-0 dismantling of two Division 1 schools, the only thing that can keep BYU from posting a third straight road will be if they don't stay focused and take one of the worst teams in the nation for granted. Utah State is 1-46 against ranked opponents. Make that 1-47 after they get spanked tonight by BYU.

Free Pick: BYU -28½ (-110)

**Willie Bee** · 10-03-08, 12:12 PM

USC Trojans -16½ take upset out on Oregon Ducks

Game Time: 10/04/2008 08:00 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

The upset loss to the Beavers last week has the Trojans angry and ready to get back into the BCS race. USC prevails against the injury-riddled Oregon Ducks on Saturday.

Oregon is running into a buzzsaw. The Trojans were embarrassed on national television last Thursday as they lost outright to Oregon St. as 24-point favorites. Not only does USC want to regroup from that but they are also looking for some payback from last season.

The Trojans lost in Eugene last season which essentially knocked them out of the National Championship race. The loss this season was early enough for there to be hope for a championship this season but now the wins must be convincing.

Oregon has looked dominant in three of its wins but back-to-back games against Purdue and Boise St. were hardly that. The victories over Washington, Utah St. and Washington St. were by a combined 173-48 which is pretty impressive. The part that is not so impressive is the fact that those teams are a combined 2-11 on the season so the wins don’t really mean that much. The home loss to the Broncos showed how this team can be beat and USC will work that advantage.

This same situation happened to USC two years ago. The Trojans went into Corvallis and lost to the Beavers by two points only to rebound the following week in trouncing Stanford 42-0. Granted, Stanford is not the same team as Oregon but the point here is that the Trojans rebound from defeats better than anyone. This team has not lost back-to-back games since early in 2001. Of the last 10 losses, not counting end of season bowl losses, the Trojans are 10-0 the next time out with those 10 wins coming by 15.2 ppg.

The Ducks are once again having problems at quarterback and it will finally catch up here after playing teams with no pulse on defense. For the second straight year Oregon has been forced to use a player tabbed fifth on the depth chart at quarterback after running out of healthy signal-callers. In fact, over the past nine games the Ducks have lost five different starting quarterbacks due to injury. The Trojans defense is still one of the best around, ranked 10th overall and 8th in scoring.

Since Pete Carroll came to USC, he has devised schemes to take out powerful offenses. USC is 9-1 ATS in home games when playing teams that average 425 or more ypg and that is all about the defense. As far as the offense, 28 points in the magic number as the Trojans are 13-4 ATS over the last three seasons when they score at least 28 points. Those wins are by an average of 24.2 ppg which is more than enough to get it done here.

Look for an angry USC team to take its frustrations out on Oregon Saturday. Play the Trojans for 1½ units.

Free Pick: USC -16½ (-103)

**Willie Bee** · 10-03-08, 12:13 PM

Oklahoma St. Cowboys -25 run it up vs. Texas A&M Aggies

Game Time: 10/04/2008 07:00 PM -
By: Tony George | 10starpicks.com

It's a lot of points, but then Mike Sherman's Aggies are really struggling right now. Make your play on Mike Gundy and the Oklahoma St. Cowboys against Texas A&M.

Not quite sure what Mike Sherman is doing at Texas A&M, but they are train wreck right now. Oklahoma State's offense is off the chart and they will score a ton of points against a very weak Aggie defense, and they may in fact be defenseless in this game.

I honestly think OSU will run the score up here into the high 40's. Although they are undefeated, they have played no one to date so this will be their toughest test early on, but chances are Texas A&M will be exposed this weekend big time with a very weak defense. The Aggies are 4-0 SU the past four years and 3-1 ATS in this series. Mike Gundy and his staff will want to exact some revenge and they will keep the hammer down if the chance is there.

Too close to call on the spread but I give the lean to Okie State for a cover here since they have revenge on their mind after a tough one-point loss in College Station last season.

Prediction: Cowboys-45 Aggies-17

Free Pick: Oklahoma St. -25 (-102)

**Willie Bee** · 10-03-08, 12:37 PM

Auburn Tigers -4½ bring Vanderbilt Commodores back down to earth

Game Time: 10/04/2008 06:00 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

Vanderbilt's perfect start to '08 has been outstanding, but it ends in Nashville Saturday night. Look for the Auburn Tigers' defense to shut down the Commodores in SEC play.

Auburn (4-1) enters into this tilt off a big bounce-back victory against the Tennessee Vols last time out by a score of 14-12, and will be primed to take out an over-hyped Vanderbilt (4-0) program in this spot.

The Tigers, after a loss to LSU the previous week, could have easily been in a letdown situation, but instead came back strong which in turn bodes well for their chances against a Commodores team that is getting a lot of overdone accolades. Do not get me wrong, Vandy has performed admirably so far this season, with key upset wins against the Mississippi Rebels and South Carolina Gamecocks. However, now because of their successes, they have a huge target on their backs and will be unable to launch any more surprise attacks.

I'm betting Auburn's hardcore defense, that has allowed under 100 yards rushing to three of five opponents, to give fits to a good but not-quite-ready-for-prime-time Vanderbilt offense that depends almost exclusively on their running game to move the chains. Meanwhile, a Tigers offense that has not looked very fluid this season will finally have some successes against a vulnerable Commodores secondary that has allowed an average of 240 passing yards per game, and with each successive game this season has also allowed more and more yards on the ground.

Final Notes & Key Trends: The Tigers have won 13 straight in this series, the last three wins have come by an average of 30 PPG. The Commodores are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 October home games. Head coach Tommy Tuberville of Auburn is also 9-1 in his last 10 ATS as a road favorite of seven points or less.

Projected Score: Auburn-28 Vanderbilt-13

Free Pick: Auburn -4½ (-110)