Lout's Picks 10/4

**Tigers1230** · 09-29-08, 02:34 PM

I like it, I like it a lot.

**Lout84** · 09-29-08, 03:36 PM

Leans:

Maryland -14 (fade a bad Virginia team)
Fresno St -22.5 (fade a bad Hawaii team)
Florida -23 (fade a bad Arkansas team)
BYU -29.5 (fade a bad Utah St team)
Vandy +4.5 (Auburn's offense is atrocious)
Colorado +14 (Texas will be looking ahead to OU next week)

I realize there are a lot of favorite's in here, it just happened out that way.

**Jcoz** · 09-29-08, 06:20 PM

Originally posted by Lout84

I went 7-1 last week to win +9 units.

I am loving Missou -11 against Nebraska. Missou has had 2 weeks to prepare.. there will be no stopping Chase Daniel and the tigers. I like this game big! This should be a 21 point spread here. Great value pick! More picks to come later.

Ball St: This team is the real deal. They are 4-0 ATS this season and they play a bad Toledo team at home. -7 is a gift. Ball St beat Toledo last year by 3 TDs. Ball St is still under the radar this year and are undefeated. Look for the streak to continue this week. How long will it take for the oddsmakers to catch on?

Kansas: Clearly Kansas is not as good as they were last year, but they should roll against Iowa St. Kansas has owned this series for the last few years and I look for that to continue this week. The last 2 years, Kansas has held Iowa St to 1 score. I look for a 4 TD blowout this time.

Note: Stay away from Oklahoma and Texas this week. They will both be looking ahead to next week's Red River Shootout. It cost Oklahoma big last season because they lost to Colorado. This year, Texas plays at Colorado.

4 Units Missou -11

4 Units Ball St -7

3 Units Kansas -13

3 Units OK St -24 (Pags Play)

3 Units Tulsa -14 (Tigers Play)

I have been cashing in on Ball St all year, but be aware, Toledo has a ridiculous home record over the long haul (41-6 last 7 years or something)...chased me off the game, and maybe even going the other way for a unit.

**Lout84** · 09-29-08, 07:39 PM

I will take a closer look at the play, thanks for the info!

**Lout84** · 09-29-08, 07:51 PM

Adding small play of $200 on Cincy -3 against Marshall.

**MexicanStallion** · 09-29-08, 11:56 PM

Originally posted by Lout84

Adding small play of $200 on Cincy -3 against Marshall.

Really even though they will be going with their 3rd string QB?

**pags11** · 09-30-08, 01:06 AM

GL this week lout...keep up the good work...

**Lout84** · 09-30-08, 09:27 AM

Originally posted by MexicanStallion

Really even though they will be going with their 3rd string QB?

If their 3rd string QB can beat Akron, then he can beat Marshall. Cincy's defense is far too good to let Marshall score even 10 points against them.

**Lout84** · 09-30-08, 09:29 AM

Jcoz, Toledo is 9-6 at home in the last 3 years. That is not what I would consider a great home record. Oklahoma is about 49-1 in the past 50 at home. I will take Ball St easily in this one. Toledo is already 0-2 at home this year.

pags, appreciate the support. Hope you aren't against me on any picks this week!

**Jcoz** · 09-30-08, 10:51 AM

Originally posted by Lout84

Jcoz, Toledo is 9-6 at home in the last 3 years. That is not what I would consider a great home record. Oklahoma is about 49-1 in the past 50 at home. I will take Ball St easily in this one. Toledo is already 0-2 at home this year.

pags, appreciate the support. Hope you aren't against me on any picks this week!

Yah, I saw that. I went back and checked, I read that the last decade they are 41-6 at home. Looks like all 6 happened recently, but game for game I only double-checked back 5 years.

I think I will still stay away, Toledo did give Fresno all they could eat earlier this season, but it was fresno coming off a disapointing loss to wisconsin. You're probably correct.

Anyhow, I can't find fault with your pick concerning the CURRENT teams each have, but then again Wisconsin should have beaten Michigan by 2 touchdowns last week, so maybe I am just suffering a little shell shock after that one (although based on the line movement I would think I was the only person who bet whisky)

**Dbldown11** · 09-30-08, 11:02 AM

Hey Lout, I hope we can both have a killer week again this week like last week. Some plays I am looking very closely at that I think have a ton of value are Kentucky +16.5 (Bama is now overvalued instead of undervalued which I predicted would happen)

Wisconsin +2.5: At home Wisconsin is pretty ridiculous. Ohio St. has shown nothing this year, and expect wisconsin to have a bad taste in their mouth after last weeks letdown. They will come out and play four solid quarters of football.

Penn st -13.5: not much to say, Penn St.'s offense is way too powerful and their defense is no slouch.

Illinois +2.5 @ Michigan: I love game. Michigan is still garbage regardless of what they did last week. Illinois will be able to scare a lot of point against them, and Michigans defense is nothing to write home about, neither is their offense.

**Lout84** · 09-30-08, 11:23 AM

Originally posted by Dbldown11

Hey Lout, I hope we can both have a killer week again this week like last week. Some plays I am looking very closely at that I think have a ton of value are Kentucky +16.5 (Bama is now overvalued instead of undervalued which I predicted would happen)

Wisconsin +2.5: At home Wisconsin is pretty ridiculous. Ohio St. has shown nothing this year, and expect wisconsin to have a bad taste in their mouth after last weeks letdown. They will come out and play four solid quarters of football.

Penn st -13.5: not much to say, Penn St.'s offense is way too powerful and their defense is no slouch.

Illinois +2.5 @ Michigan: I love game. Michigan is still garbage regardless of what they did last week. Illinois will be able to scare a lot of point against them, and Michigans defense is nothing to write home about, neither is their offense.

Yes, here is to another prosperous week!

It looks like you like to bet on Big 10 teams. I am weak in this conference. I do like the Penn St play though. The other plays seem like toss ups to me because I am ignorant to those teams. I do like the Kentucky play as well.

**Dbldown11** · 09-30-08, 11:31 AM

haha i though people would say that when they saw my picks. I actually dont like betting any one conference in particular. I just see a lot of value in all those plays. Also any thoughts on notre dame?

I think They roll over stanford at home by double digits, and since the line is not likely to ever get that high i think ill be on them as well

**Jcoz** · 09-30-08, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by Dbldown11

Hey Lout, I hope we can both have a killer week again this week like last week. Some plays I am looking very closely at that I think have a ton of value are Kentucky +16.5 (Bama is now overvalued instead of undervalued which I predicted would happen)

Wisconsin +2.5: At home Wisconsin is pretty ridiculous. Ohio St. has shown nothing this year, and expect wisconsin to have a bad taste in their mouth after last weeks letdown. They will come out and play four solid quarters of football.

Penn st -13.5: not much to say, Penn St.'s offense is way too powerful and their defense is no slouch.

Illinois +2.5 @ Michigan: I love game. Michigan is still garbage regardless of what they did last week. Illinois will be able to scare a lot of point against them, and Michigans defense is nothing to write home about, neither is their offense.

Wisconsin is a rough place to go at night, thats for sure, but regardless of the slow start for Ohio State, bottom line is they have twice as much talent as wisconsin and Beilima is not in Tressel's class as coach. If they couldn't handle threet in the 2nd half, they are going to have a hell of a time with Pryor.

Michigan turned the ball over 5 times in the first half and Wisconsin still only led 19 at the half. Ohio State will not turn the ball over more than twice.

Wisconsins QB is shaky at best and is likely to turn that ball over against an Ohio State secondary that has been outstanding at capitalizing on mistakes this season.

Ohio State's defense is built to play against teams like this. A one dimensional team is not going to beat Ohio State. Beckum will get some catches and PJ hill will have 70-80 yds, but that wont be enough.

Barring a total collapse by Pryor and/or Beanie Wells having to sit out.....Ohio State wins this game. Don't sleep on Ohio State, they might not be able to cover DD spreads this year, but they can cover single digits against anyone left on thier schedule save for maybe PSU.

**Dbldown11** · 09-30-08, 12:06 PM

Ohio St. has score a total of 7 points more than Wisconsin this year and have given up 12 more on defense. Ohio St. is not overpowering anyone on defense. I realize the stats in general favor Ohio St. but the stats also favored all the other big time teams that lost last week. Capping involves so much more than just statistics.

Statistics are what the linemakers use to create a spread. So with that being said anyone who bets games going with statistics alone will be hovering around the .500 mark. Capping is a combination of statistics and other influences. The other influences in this game being Wisconsin is angry and wants to shut people up after last weeks letdown. they are a better team that they showed in the second half last week. The best way to shut people up? Beat Ohio St. The main factor that will help with that? A completely crazy crowd at camp randell stadium

**MexicanStallion** · 09-30-08, 12:20 PM

Originally posted by Lout84

If their 3rd string QB can beat Akron, then he can beat Marshall. Cincy's defense is far too good to let Marshall score even 10 points against them.

The 2nd string QB beat Akron and they barely won that game. It was an ugly one. Grutza broke his leg against Oklahoma. Pike broke his arm against Akron. Im not really sure who is going to start against Marshall.

**Tigers1230** · 09-30-08, 12:42 PM

I like Illinois at +2.5 and watch out for Auburn at -4!!!. Everyone knows Vandy is much improved but they have also had a lot of breaks so far this season. I see Auburn needing this game to stay up in the polls. It's going to be a tough one, but take the under and look for Auburn to ruin the perfect record of Vandy.

I also agree that Michigan is garbage. Illinois is having problems on D, but they showed last week that they have the team to play against a top 10 Penn St. on the road. I like Illinois to take a must win game down for them this weekend.

**Lout84** · 09-30-08, 01:33 PM

I am going to stay away from those small spread Big 10 games. They seem like good matchups. I don't have the balls to bet against Ohio St.

I think Cincy has the talent to beat a bad Marshall team, regardless of who plays QB. I guess we will see on that one.. it is my weakest play, but I have a good feeling about it.

The more I check out the Oklahoma/Baylor game, the more I like it. Stoops is going to make sure that Bradford has plenty of opportunities to pad his stats for the heisman hype. This won't be a close game at all. Even with Texas looming next week.. I like this one a lot. OU scheduled a soft team before the Red River Shootout for a reason.

**Jcoz** · 09-30-08, 02:40 PM

Originally posted by Dbldown11

Ohio St. has score a total of 7 points more than Wisconsin this year and have given up 12 more on defense. Ohio St. is not overpowering anyone on defense. I realize the stats in general favor Ohio St. but the stats also favored all the other big time teams that lost last week. Capping involves so much more than just statistics.

Statistics are what the linemakers use to create a spread. So with that being said anyone who bets games going with statistics alone will be hovering around the .500 mark. Capping is a combination of statistics and other influences. The other influences in this game being Wisconsin is angry and wants to shut people up after last weeks letdown. they are a better team that they showed in the second half last week. The best way to shut people up? Beat Ohio St. The main factor that will help with that? A completely crazy crowd at camp randell stadium

Ohio State's statistics are garbage as it applies to matching up with wisconsin. Defensively they have played 3 spread teams and a multidimensional USC attack.

Offensively they have been without Beanie Wells vs USC, Troy, and Ohio U, and Todd Beckman was the Starter at QB for the first two games, so realisticly last week vs minnesota is the only credible data that anyone has on Ohio States Offense.

Ohio State has as much motivation to win as Wisconsin. They return a large amount of seniors and starters and they know they can't lose any more games this season.

Camp Randal is truly the only factor that heavily favors wisconsin, and I can see Wisconsin possibly winning this game, but by no more than a FG. Weather could be a factor I haven't checked.

Not enough edge to make it a solid pick, IMO. (not that my opinion means much), but good luck on your bet anyways...

**awhitejackson** · 09-30-08, 05:16 PM

Lout, my favorite two picks of the week are yours as well...Hope that doesnt jinx you.. jk!!!! anyways evened out on Ball St. last week as I got on early for 19, and late for 21.5....The only scary thing is the historical record in both games....We all know Neb. has not been beaten @ home by Mizzou in 30 years but what about Toledo being crazy tough at home last few years??? (30 something to 7!!)anyways still my top 2 picks FVCK history.....I think these lines are relying a little too much on the historical trends and thats our way to money this week.....GL to you and congrats on a big week last week.....

**Lout84** · 10-01-08, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by awhitejackson

Lout, my favorite two picks of the week are yours as well...Hope that doesnt jinx you.. jk!!!! anyways evened out on Ball St. last week as I got on early for 19, and late for 21.5....The only scary thing is the historical record in both games....We all know Neb. has not been beaten @ home by Mizzou in 30 years but what about Toledo being crazy tough at home last few years??? (30 something to 7!!)anyways still my top 2 picks FVCK history.....I think these lines are relying a little too much on the historical trends and thats our way to money this week.....GL to you and congrats on a big week last week.....

I am not going with the Toledo at home trend. Toledo is 0-2 at home this year against poor teams. Ball State's offense is rolling and should cover this game (you may want to buy .5 points to get the spread to an even 7) but don't think you will need it.

This Missouri team is the best I have seen in years. Nebraska lost to a mediocre Virginia Tech team at home last week. Missouri will win that one by 21. Even Nebraska fans think they are going to get romped. Giving Chase Daniels 2 full weeks of preparation is dangerous in itself. Missouri has 2 offensive players in the heisman running in Daniels and Maclin.. I am loving the spread right now.

**Lout84** · 10-04-08, 01:22 AM

1-0 so far. Victory is mine!

**Lout84** · 10-04-08, 03:21 PM

+4 Units so far. 2-1 Record

Adding late plays:

2 Units - Oregon +15 over USC
2 Units - Texas 1st Half -6.5

**Lout84** · 10-05-08, 02:02 AM

7-2 for the day and up +30.5 units!!! Thank you Pags and Tigers for your 2 picks.