Some one help me understnd the Whisky/Michigan Spread!

[Jcoz]

Jumped on this spread early at 6. I was certain that this would end up 7 or 7.5. Its now down to 5.5 instead. Checked out the best bets thread, most seem to like this game, didn't see one pick for Michigan.

I can't see how wisconsin doesn't win this game by 10-14 pts....

What gives? How has this spread gone DOWN? What reasons are there to like Michigan plus less than 7?

Looking for someone to tell me why I shouldn't go five units on this game.....

[AMBlai01]

I feel the same exact way about this game. I really don't get it either. I know this is a rivalry game and that has to factor in but Wisc is such a better team.

You know what they always say though....If its too good to be true, stay away. I almost feel like this one falls into that category. There is a reason why Vegas always makes money.....

Not sure if I am going to touch this one yet....

[SexyMit]

Yes that is what I am getting out of this game. Just as my Signature says in my profile. If it seems to good to be true it usually is. Either Michigan or no bet for me.

[BuddyBear]

If you can't figure out why money is showing up on Michigan, you haven't a clue about sports betting. Sharp bettors (those guys/groups who move betting lines) don't back overinflated favorites who are heavily backed by the public. Go on any gaming forum and you'll see a deluge of betting support for Wisconsin (CLUE #1 that you are backing the square side).

The reason why the line is moving toward Michigan is because Wisconsin is one of the more overrated teams year in and year out...this year of course appears to be shaping up as the past few years. Michigan is going to get better and this represents a great opportunity for a straight up win for Michigan. really I can't see how anyone would back Wisconsin on anything over -3. I thought the line was way off when it opened at +6 then moved to +6.5...but it's starting to go back down as I thought.

[roasthawg]

Reasons to like Michigan:

1. They've had major problems fumbling the ball...that is one of the more correctable problems in football.

2. They have a great run defense...Wisconsin relies on the run for their offense, will they be able to run on T.Taylor and co.?

3. Their HC installed a new offense...is this the week we begin to see results?

I didn't bet on this game as I just don't see quite enough value but if I did it would be on Michigan. I see a game won by a fg or less and it could go either way.

[awhitejackson]

If you can't figure out why money is showing up on Michigan, you haven't a clue about sports betting. Sharp bettors (those guys/groups who move betting lines) don't back overinflated favorites who are heavily backed by the public. Go on any gaming forum and you'll see a deluge of betting support for Wisconsin (CLUE #1 that you are backing the square side).

The reason why the line is moving toward Michigan is because Wisconsin is one of the more overrated teams year in and year out...this year of course appears to be shaping up as the past few years. Michigan is going to get better and this represents a great opportunity for a straight up win for Michigan. really I can't see how anyone would back Wisconsin on anything over -3. I thought the line was way off when it opened at +6 then moved to +6.5...but it's starting to go back down as I thought.

Im sorry but I always hate this "square play" argument...who gives a Fvck who these so called sharps are... Sure Wisconsin has been overrated in the last few years but I hate thinking about this mythical Vegas force of sharps that really move these lines so much or really put a shit ton of money on an unpopular game making the rest of us squares...Of course the history exists but you need to recognize the changing factors involved in todays betting.....The day of the sharp and square is over in the sense that an average gambler , if willing, capable, and disciplined can make a decent profit with or without this talk of "square plays"..... The internet is here...the ability to read into games and to study and to cap well has been taken out of this insider fraternity that it used to be...an average guy in Philly has the same info (legal) that anyone else has....Look at the World Series of Poker the last few (or several years) when have the pros come through????? How many ametuers do they have to promote before they get a pro to win the damn thing ( or even make a seat at the final table?) FVCK the so called pros.... I've watched most previous games from these two teams and I think I am smart enough after a few years of capping that I can Honestly say.......FVCK the sharps on this one!!!! (if indeed they are on this pick).... Michigan is awful...Their run D may be good but they cannot move the ball in any sense of the word....Wisconsin wins by 14+....who cares about the history in this one???? 2 teams play..1 vastly superior than the other this year....okay so Fresno was a bad game, but has anyone noticed that Fresno and Pat Hill have been giant killers for years, and wisconsin showed toughness getting out alive in that one? The big house is not so sacred after the appy st debacle last year....EASY MONEY....If that makes me a square than Ill gladly be a square around 7:00 tommorow...

[awholelottalumps]

They want you to bet on Wisconsin(linemakers),don't as Michigan is coming off a bye week and should keep this one close and maybe win outright.

[I LUV (.) (.)]

the reason why the line has moved down is because its the sportsbook and vegas trying to make the public think that tons of money are being wagered on michigan.I see this all the time The pic here is BADGERS!Wisconsin 23 Michigan 14

[unde0087]

If Michigan continues to turn the ball over, they will get routed today.

[LT Profits]

It doesn't matter if you care who the sharps are on or not, the fact is that the sharps are definitely on Michigan here. That is just another bit of info on this game, as the smart money is not always smart.

[SexyMit]

It doesn't matter if you care who the sharps are on or not, the fact is that the sharps are definitely on Michigan here. That is just another bit of info on this game, as the smart money is not always smart.

Think Sharps are on Syracuse as well as the spread has gone down 2 points and 60% is taking Pitt

[big joe 1212]

Michigan is horrible.

Wisconsin is due for their annual collapse after being a road favorite in the Big 10!

[BuddyBear]

There is a statistically significant relationship between sharp money and winning. It's not a perfect positive linear relationship. It's not always right, but the reality is that money is coming in on Michigan. You should know what that means. Take that information for what it is worth. We've gone over this now 100s of times. Betting markets become more efficient the closer you get to game time. Basically

[pavyracer]

The books moving the line in Michigan's favor make Joe Bloe think that sharp money is on Michigan and sucker their money. Classic move. If you like Wisconsin don't be fooled by the move. In terms of teasing -5.5 is the same as -6.5 if you like Wisconsin.

[irishstuey]

Think Sharps are on Syracuse as well as the spread has gone down 2 points and 60% is taking Pitt

This could be that game for Syracuse. Last year they were blown out first games then bam, they walk in and beat Louisville. Pitt is not overly impressive and this could easily turn into a close game.

Don't get me wrong. Syracuse is bad

[LT Profits]

I am Under 46.5 in that Syracuse game and on Under 42 in Wisconsin game.

[pico]

from my sportspager, today's ncaafb sharp moves are central mich, penn st, and hawaii. let's see how the sharp money are doing this week.

michigan ml is a lock.

[pavyracer]

from my sportspager, today's ncaafb sharp moves are central mich, penn st, and hawaii. let's see how the sharp money are doing this week.

michigan ml is a lock.

From my Thursday sportspager the sharp move was USC -2500 for $100,000.

[fiveteamer]

This is a trap if I've ever seen one.

[Deuce]

Michigan will cover. Had a week off, are going to look like a completely different team.

[pico]

we'll see by the game time. michigan will show up this week.

[teaserpleaser]

From my Thursday sportspager the sharp move was USC -2500 for $100,000.

Damn that was good one!

[griffijf]

I really think a lot of people are underestimating Wisconsin.

I understand they have had trouble in Ann Arbor, and they might even be looking ahead to the OSU game next week in Madison. I just think Michigan is in such a transition period, and they aren't that good.

Wisconsin's only detriment is their lack of spark coming out of the locker room. If this team jumps to a 10-0, 14-3 lead.... the game won't be close.

That being said, the longer Michigan hangs around, the tougher it will be for Wisconsin to even win outright.......

[BuddyBear]

I really think a lot of people are underestimating Wisconsin.

I understand they have had trouble in Ann Arbor, and they might even be looking ahead to the OSU game next week in Madison. I just think Michigan is in such a transition period, and they aren't that good.

Wisconsin's only detriment is their lack of spark coming out of the locker room. If this team jumps to a 10-0, 14-3 lead.... the game won't be close.

That being said, the longer Michigan hangs around, the tougher it will be for Wisconsin to even win outright.......

This analysis was all wrong.....

[BuddyBear]

If you can't figure out why money is showing up on Michigan, you haven't a clue about sports betting. Sharp bettors (those guys/groups who move betting lines) don't back overinflated favorites who are heavily backed by the public. Go on any gaming forum and you'll see a deluge of betting support for Wisconsin (CLUE #1 that you are backing the square side).

The reason why the line is moving toward Michigan is because Wisconsin is one of the more overrated teams year in and year out...this year of course appears to be shaping up as the past few years. Michigan is going to get better and this represents a great opportunity for a straight up win for Michigan. really I can't see how anyone would back Wisconsin on anything over -3. I thought the line was way off when it opened at +6 then moved to +6.5...but it's starting to go back down as I thought.

This analysis was all right.....

[VegasDave]

This analysis was all right.....

I'm sure all the sharps were expecting Michigan to be down 19 - 0 and then all of a sudden come all the way back.

Come on man, a lot of us lost on this, show some class.

[durito]

i had wisconsin

[BuddyBear]

I'm sure all the sharps were expecting Michigan to be down 19 - 0 and then all of a sudden come all the way back.

Come on man, a lot of us lost on this, show some class.

Again, nobody knows the exact dynamics of a game. It's impssible to predict the actual events within a game. That does not negate the fact that UW was overrated/overpriced in this matchup.

[ertl09]

still talking about this game.... we all know Michigan won, you want a pat on the back

[durito]

Again, nobody knows the exact dynamics of a game. It's impssible to predict the actual events within a game. That does not negate the fact that UW was overrated/overpriced in this matchup.

Wisconsin out gained Michigan 384 to 268 and 4.74yds per play to 4.123 and were +1 in turnover margin.

Those kind of stats will cover a 5.5pt spread more often than not.