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  • TPowell
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-21-08
    • 18842

    #1
    TPowell's Official CFB Card
    Louisville (-3)
    Alabama (+7)
    Penn State (-14)
    Syracuse (+15.5)
    Miami FL (-7.5)
    Duke (-7)
    Arkansas State (-1.5)
    Rice (-15.5)
    Michigan State (-8)
    Wisconsin (-5)
    South Florida (-10)




    I'm sure you'll call bias on this one, but UConn has played nobody. The one road game they did play was a 12-9 OVERTIME win against Temple. Donald Brown is a nice back, but Louisville's run defense has looked good so far. Tyler Lorenzen isn't exactly Tom Brady in the pocket. Connecticut doesn't have the ability to throw the football and thats is Louisville's biggest liablity defensively. Louisville's offense looked horrible against Kentucky, but like I said, rivalry games bring out the best and worst in teams. Throw in revenge for the infamous "fair catch" last year and I believe Louisville wins big here.

    Louisville (-3) 2 units


    Yes, Georgia is #3 in the country and at home against Alabama. I'm just not sold that Georgia is head and shoulders above the rest of the top teams in the SEC. Alabama has played great so far this year, including a huge road win against Clemson. I don't think Alabama will be scared and the running game will be huge. I see 2 talented backs in Moreno of Georgia and Coffee of Alabama. Alabama went in and dominated Arkansas on the road. I'm just not sure that this game will be decided by more than 1 score. John Parker Wilson's time has come to be a leader and I think he gets the job done on Saturday. I might consider the Alabama ML later, but right now Alabama +7 looks good to me

    Alabama (+7) 2 units


    Penn State will have its first true test Saturday when Juice Williams and the Fighting Illini come to town. The weak link in this game is the Illinois defense though. Louisiana Lafayette almost pulled a huge upset over Illinois last week, but the Illini came away with a 20-17 win. The defense played better than the week before, but a 3 point victory against Louisiana Lafayette isn't going to get them ready for Penn State. Eastern Illinois rolled up 180 yards of rushing and scored 21 points on Illinois. Penn State has looked dominant so far this season and I expect them to shred the Illini's pitiful defense and win by 3+ scores

    Penn State (-14) 2 units

    Somebody fell asleep at the wheel this week. Pittsburgh giving 15.5 points on the road in a conference game? I wouldnt count on Syracuse pulling the upset, but the 15.5 point spread is more than enough in this one. Pittsburgh only has 1 double digit win so far this season. Another key factor is that Pitt hasn't been away from home so far this season. If Syracuse can manage to score double digits against a decent Pittsburgh defense then they will cover easily. I believe the adrenaline of a first Big East game at home will be enough for the Orange to stay close to Pitt. Syracuse might be a bad team, but even bad team's can play Pittsburgh close.

    Syracuse (+15.5) 2 units


    Miami might not be the Miami of old, but they are still pretty damn good. A road win at Texas A&M was impressive, but an 18 point shellacking was an eye opener. Maybe A&M isnt a great football team, but holding Florida to 26 points on the road is an accomplishment. Keep in mind that this is basically Miami's first home game against a D-1 team. North Carolina seemed to have everything going right in their home opener last week against Virginia Tech. The Hokies came out in the fouth quarter and stole a win from a dejected Tar Heel team. Losing that game and starting QB TJ Yates will put UNC into a tailspin that starts Saturday in Miami.

    Miami (-7.5) 2 units


    Oh how the mighty have fallen. Last year, Virginia finished 6-2 in the ACC. So far this season, Virginia's largest scoring game was 16 points against a D-1 AA Richmond team. Last week, UConn put up 45 points on them in Virginia's first road game. Fortunately, they run into a very underrated Duke football team. Duke? Football? Duke defeated a tough Navy team by 10 points last week and lost a squeaker to Northwestern the week before. Duke's passing attack has increased in yards every week. They put up 294 passing yards against Northwestern and followed that up with a 317 yard game against Navy. Virginia's pass defense is adequate, but UConn ran for nearly 400 yards on them last week! Duke wins big here!

    Duke (-7) 2 units


    Arkansas State must have a tremoundous backing in the sports betting industry. This game came out as a pickem and right now sits at Arkansas State -2. I wouldnt count on just Arkansas State fan's moving this line up 2 points. What else could it be? How about a win AT Texas A&M? Putting up 83 points on some ragtag D-1 AA school? A 17 point victory over Middle Tennessee State? Right now Memphis is 1-3 with their only win coming against Nicholls State. Their losses include Marshall, Rice, and Ole Miss. You can argue that Memphis is a much better team at home, but it still won't be good enough to take down a battle tested Arkansas State team. Yes, I said a battle tested Arkansas State team!

    Arkansas State (-2) 2 units


    When you see a total in the 70's, you have to wonder how bad these teams are on defense. North Texas has gave up 40+ in all 3 of it's games this season. Only 1 time have they scored double digits and that was their only home game against Tulsa (Tulsa scored 56). North Texas's pass defense averages around 310 yards so far this season. Rice averages enarly 300 yards through the air. They put up 300 yards or more against Texas, Vanderbilt, and Memphis. All of those teams they played ON THE ROAD. Rice has to be licking their chops as a pitiful North Texas team arrives. Rice's defense isn't the greatest in the world, but North Texas doesn't have the firepower to stay within the 15.5 point spread.

    Rice (-15.5) 2 units


    TEASERS (2 units each at even money)

    Michigan St (-2) AND Auburn (-0.5)
    Cal (-20.5) AND Oregon (-15.5)
    Wisconsin (-0.5) AND Oklahoma (-12.5)
    Texas (-20) AND South Florida (-2.5)

    ML Parlays

    Wake Forest ML and Duke ML (2 units to win 1 unit)
    Florida ML, LSU ML, Oklahoma ML (4 units to win 1 unit)
    East Carolina ML and Clemson ML (2 units to win 1 unit)
    Florida State ML and Ball State ML (2 units to win 1 unit)

    Monster ML Parlay of the Week

    Louisville ML, Auburn ML, and Alabama ML (0.5 units to win 3.25 units)

    Totals (1 unit plays)

    Alabama/Georgia UNDER 45
    Virginia Tech/Nebraska UNDER 46
    Minnesota/Ohio State UNDER 47
    Colorado/Florida State UNDER 40.5
    Arkansas/Texas OVER 59
    Last edited by TPowell; 09-27-08, 02:01 PM.
  • Dbldown11
    SBR MVP
    • 08-17-06
    • 3605

    #2
    Did you see Syracuse's struggles against NORTHEASTERN??? They have shown to be absolutely garbage. Pitt's defense should shut them down. And as far as the big east opener goes....that benefits Pitt way more than Cuse. Pittsburgh has aspirations of the Big East title so they will be up for this, on the other hand Syracuse knows they blow and they know they have no chance at the big east title so it wont mean nearly as much to them.
    Comment
    • Dbldown11
      SBR MVP
      • 08-17-06
      • 3605

      #3
      I agree with all of your other picks, with the exception of Arkansas St. I had a write up on this game earlier, but Memphis has been close in it's games and should win this one at home. Texas A&M is horrible, and in the first game of the year they were probably looking past Arkansas St. Memphis wins this one straight up
      Comment
      • TPowell
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 02-21-08
        • 18842

        #4
        yeah but 14 points against a **** up team like Pitt should be fine. What has Pitt done this year to warrant giving 3 scores? They havent even played a road game this year
        Comment
        • Dbldown11
          SBR MVP
          • 08-17-06
          • 3605

          #5
          The fact that it's Syracuse warrants it. You see this all the time teams that arent that great going to play horrible teams are big chalk. Look at Akron @ Army last week Akron was -10.5 and they are not that good of a team. It's just the simple fact that Army and Syracuse ARE THAT BAD!
          Comment
          • xyzky
            SBR MVP
            • 08-23-07
            • 1577

            #6
            T,
            Did you tease these numbers down?
            USC (-19.5) AND OVER 45.5 (2 units)
            Comment
            • TPowell
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 02-21-08
              • 18842

              #7
              Originally posted by xyzky
              T,
              Did you tease these numbers down?
              USC (-19.5) AND OVER 45.5 (2 units)
              yeah 6 point teaser, sorry about that
              Comment
              • TPowell
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 02-21-08
                • 18842

                #8
                adding Wisconsin (-5) and South Florida (-10)
                Comment
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