Front Page NCAAF Picks (Wk 3, Sep, 11-13)

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  • Willie Bee
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-14-06
    • 15726

    #1
    Front Page NCAAF Picks (Wk 3, Sep, 11-13)
    Notre Dame Fighting Irish +1½ vs. Michigan Wolverines

    Game Time: 09/13/2008 03:30 PM -
    By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

    At home under the shadow of Touchdown Jesus, look for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to exact some revenge from last year's one-sided loss to the Michigan Wolverines.

    Our Saturday afternoon college football selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at home in South Bend plus the points over Michigan.

    Last year, there were few bright spots for Lloyd Carr's Wolverines. His final season as head coach opened disasterously with a loss to Appalachian St, and then the Wolves got waxed by Oregon. Still, Carr's season was better than Charlie Weis' year in South Bend, and Michigan's 38-0 romp over the Irish in Ann Arbor showed just how bad Notre Dame really was.

    This year, the Irish might surprise some folks, and I think they'll get their revenge on Saturday afternoon. Notre Dame falls into a 271-219 ATS shutout revenge system of mine, and also a team trend that's 14-1 ATS. That trend plays on the underdog in the Notre Dame/Michigan series provided the favorite is NOT playing with revenge.

    Look for Notre Dame to crush Michigan on Saturday.

    Free Pick: Notre Dame +1½ (-110)
  • Willie Bee
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-14-06
    • 15726

    #2
    Maryland +15 vs. California Bears

    Game Time: 09/13/2008 12:00 PM -
    By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

    This line has been bet up several points since opening, and while the California Bears will still win the game, they will not cover this spread on the road at the Maryland Terrapins.

    The Maryland Terrapins enter this home game as two touchdown underdogs to the California Bears. The game has steamed up from an opening line of -11½, thanks to an overwhelming amount of public money and a few whales rolling in on the side the the away team.

    The Bears, thanks to back-to-back wins against Washington State and Michigan State behind an offense that scored a combined 102 points, look like an obvious square choice to cruise to another one-sided victory against a Maryland program that has has come out of the gate slowly. The Terrapins used very little effort, doing just enough to get a 14-7 win against Delaware in their opening contest, before putting forward a unmotivated performance against Sun Belt opponent Middle Tennessee State last week, suffering a 21-14 road set back.

    I know the Terps looked bad last week, but I'm betting they were looking ahead to this game and probably over looking and under estimating their opposition. It must be noted that Maryland is a much stronger team than many may think, as they have nine returning starters back on offense, and also have a viable rushing attack behind the legs of DaRel Scott (320 Yds), who currently ranks fourth in the nation.

    With that said, I expect the Terps will use their ground attack a lot Saturday in an attempt to slow this game down. On the defensive side of the ball, the Terps are a formidable foe, and were ranked 24th in points allowed last season. Maryland showed how staunch they can be when they held their first opponent Delaware scoreless for 55 minutes before falling asleep at the wheel last week. I expect they will be wide awake this time around and provide California's explosive offense with a very stiff test.

    Final Botes & Key Trends: California is just 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games as road favorites.

    Projected Score: California-24 Maryland-21

    Free Pick: Maryland +15 (-110)
    Comment
    • Willie Bee
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 02-14-06
      • 15726

      #3
      Oregon Ducks -7 fly high past the Purdue Boilermakers

      Game Time: 09/13/2008 03:30 PM -
      By: Jimmy Boyd | 10starpicks.com

      In their last nine tilts against Big Ten teams, Oregon is a solid 7-2 ATS. Back the Ducks Saturday on the road in West Lafayette against the Purdue Boilermakers.

      Oregon may have lost its starting backfield from a season ago (Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart), but the offense is showing no signs of slowing down.

      We'll waste no time laying a touchdown against a Purdue team which we have finishing in the bottom four in the Big Ten against an Oregon team which should finish second or third in the Pac-10. Oregon is 6-0 ATS in the first month of the season over the last two seasons, 11-3 ATS after playing a game at home over the last three seasons, and 31-13 ATS after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.

      The Ducks are also 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games and 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. the Big Ten. Take Oregon.

      Free Pick: Oregon -7 (-109)
      Comment
      • Tigers1230
        SBR MVP
        • 12-04-07
        • 1568

        #4
        There is no way I can back Maryland. There is no excuse for squeeking by Delaware and losing to MTSU. Now they are facing a legit team. I do see this game starting out as low scoring but see Cal making adjustments at half and pooring it on. Maryland is going to need at least 3 tournovers to even consider being in this ball game.
        Comment
        • Willie Bee
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 02-14-06
          • 15726

          #5
          North Carolina Tar Heels and Rutgers Scarlet Knights Over 46

          Game Time: 09/11/2008 07:45 PM -
          By: Matt Foust | who2beton.com

          Both the Tar Heels and Scarlet Knights should be a bit pass-happy this evening when they meet in Jersey. Play North Carolina and Rutgers to go over the posted total.

          Tonight’s edition of college football features a matchup between the ACC and the Big East as the North Carolina Tar Heels meet the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Rutgers Stadium in New Brunswick, NJ. The total is set at 46 and we are going to with the Over.

          Last week Rutgers only scored seven points in a 24-7 home loss to Fresno State. A strong Bulldog offense amassed 206 yards on the ground and another 216 through the air and they took it to the Scarlet Knights in the second half. Rutgers played like it was their first game of the season, as senior quarterback Mike Teel threw two interceptions and the Ray Rice-less offense struggled to find a rhythm. Still, the Knights accumulated 369 yards of offense and Teel threw for 263 yards against an improved Fresno defense. I expect even more from them tonight as they now have their first game jitters out of the way.

          The Tar Heels had a difficult time finding a groove in their first game too. They escaped with a narrow 35-27 home win over Football Championship Subdivision McNeese State. They allowed the Cowboys 391 yards of offense and 239 through the air. McNeese State also held the ball for 35:16 to Carolina’s 24:44. UNC produced 384 yards in their limited time with the ball and they rushed for 163 and a 5.6 yard per carry average. Wide receiver Brandon Tate salvaged the game for the Tar Heels with his special team’s heroics, scoring on an 82 yard punt return and accounting for 397 all-purpose yards.

          Tonight’s game should feature a lot of passing, especially from the Scarlet Knights. They are transitioning to a more pass oriented attack with Rice gone, as the strength of their team are now Teel and a good group of receivers. While the Tar Heels defense is suppose to be improved, Rutgers should be able to move the ball through the air. And they’ve had ample time, as has UNC, to correct their first game mistakes since both teams are coming off bye weeks. The Tar Heels will be able to move the ball on the ground against Rutgers front too, and UNC should also have some nice field position to work with as their special teams are a notch above Rutgers. This game will certainly feature enough offense to get over the 46 point total.

          Things to consider: The Over is 5-1 over the last five years when UNC is a road dog coming off a win. The Over is 5-1 the last five years with Rutgers coming off a bye week.

          Free Pick: North Carolina-Rutgers Over 46 (-110)
          Comment
          • Willie Bee
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 02-14-06
            • 15726

            #6
            Duke Blue Devils -1½ to stick fork in Navy Midshipmen

            Game Time: 09/13/2008 12:03 PM -
            By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

            It is not often that we would recommend an ACC team in a non-conference game, but Navy is a step down in class for Duke after a tough 24-20 loss to Northwestern.

            The ACC has looked terrible early in the season, but this looks like a rare winnable non-conference game for the league when Duke hosts Navy.

            Ironically, the Blue Devils are generally regarded as the worst team in the ACC, yet they were one of the few teams in the conference to actually show up last week, albeit in a tough 24-20 loss to Northwestern. They did cover the spread though as six-point dogs.

            What was most impressive about the Duke performance was that they limited star Northwestern running back Tyrell Sutton to just 66 rushing yards, and the entire Wildcats team to only 77 yards on a miniscule 2.9 yards per carry. Now everyone knows that all Navy does is run, so if the Blue Devils can duplicate that defensive performance and force Navy into passing situations like Ball State did last week, it would make their task that much easier.

            On the other hand, the Navy defense has been downright awful in their first two games, and they allowed 488 total yards and a whopping 28 first down vs. the Cardinals last week. They did not even force Ball State to punt until their very last possession of the game.

            All things considered, laying less than a field goal with Duke here seems like a solid investment.

            Free Pick: Duke -1½ (-110)
            Comment
            • LINE-crush-ER
              SBR MVP
              • 01-04-08
              • 1445

              #7
              i got a message from you , saying i insulted someone . for the life of me it was only fun intednded , the guy started off the thread ,
              i just told my booke i was going to shat down his throat/troat???
              ok you young folks i just bet 1000 dollars on each of these teams , and it was like 18 teams , comon every smuck here found this site looking for free picks , people that bet dimes on games dont for one be 17 games , and pick all favorites
              now my point was fun intended , but its already hard enough to find LT PROFITS . illusions thread ,your picks, now bmac is here . with everyone posting everygame thread commenting 50 times on threads about there picks and why its just . like isaid the guy brought bad vibes and i just didnt like his bologna thread , so i called him on his bull crap. but what ever , just tell me when the above posts i really dont have a any other reason to be here , , i might pick something , for the most part i never bet more than a quarter on my picks take care , sorry for not proof reading , ive had a virus ,
              Comment
              • Willie Bee
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 02-14-06
                • 15726

                #8
                Kansas Jayhawks +3½ to cover at South Florida Bulls

                Game Time: 09/12/2008 08:00 PM -
                By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

                South Florida has some injury issues in their backfield with Mike Ford and Benjamin Williams banged up. Take the Kansas Jayhawks and the points Friday at the Bulls.

                This will be the first real test of the season for both teams. South Florida has wins over UT-Martin 56-7 and Central Florida while Kansas has beaten Florida International and Louisiana Tech to get to 2-0 on the season.

                Injuries could play a big part in tonight’s matchup. Both of the Bulls' top running backs are “questionable” this week. Sophomore Mike Ford, who averaged 4.7 yards per carry and had 12 rushing touchdowns in 2007, sprained his ankle in Week 1 and missed last week’s game. Benjamin Williams, who had six TDs last year and averaged 4.0 YPC, also has a sprained ankle.

                Meanwhile Kansas is expected to be without WR Dexton Fields and CB Kendrick Harper.

                Both teams field top-notch quarterbacks: Matt Grothe for South Florida and Todd Reesing for Kansas. But with South Florida’s running game “grounded,” I’ll take the points and side with Kansas in this one.

                Free Pick: Kansas +3½ (-110)
                Comment
                • Willie Bee
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 02-14-06
                  • 15726

                  #9
                  Air Force +2½ to fly past Houston

                  Game Time: 09/13/2008 03:30 PM -
                  By: Matt Foust | who2beton.com

                  Hurricane Ike has shifted this game out of Houston north to Dallas. That should negate the Cougars' home field advantage some and give an edge to the Air Force Falcons.

                  The Air Force Falcons will travel to Dallas this week to take on the Houston Cougars. The game has been moved to SMU’s Gerald Ford Stadium due to Hurricane Ike. We are going with the road Falcons +2½ in this Mountain West, Conference USA clash.

                  Last week Air Force dominated the Wyoming Cowboys in Laramie and they won the game 23-3. The Falcons held a decent Wyoming offense to just 216 total yards and they limited them to less than 23 minutes of possession time. Air Force was able to accomplish this by rushing for 261 yards on the Cowboys defense. In the season opener Air Force gained 433 rush yards (5.7 YPC) against a poor Southern Utah team and they held the ball for nearly 40 minutes.

                  The Cougars, unlike Air Force, are a more of a pass oriented team after losing Anthony Alridge. Last week they were able to move the ball through the air on Oklahoma State for 387 yards, but that is about all they did right. The Cowboys had their way with Houston on offense and posted 379 yards on the ground (699 total). OSU went on to win 56-37.

                  Air Force will not employ the same game plan that Oklahoma State did last week; they will not get in a shootout with the Cougars. They will run the ball against them and run it well. They will count on their good defensive line to stop the Houston rush and put pressure on Case Keenum when he goes to pass. In their first two games the Falcons held the ball for 76:51 while limiting opponents to 63:09. Saturday’s contest will be more of the same as the Falcons cover the +2½.

                  Free Pick: Air Force +2½ (-110)
                  Comment
                  • Willie Bee
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 02-14-06
                    • 15726

                    #10
                    Ohio U +3½ at home to upset CMU

                    Game Time: 09/13/2008 02:00 PM -
                    By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

                    Ohio University and Central Michigan both played powerhouse opponents last week, but while Ohio hung tough with Ohio State, CMU was routed 56-17 by Georgia. Take the Bobcats as home underdogs.

                    The Ohio Bobcats gave mighty Ohio State a scare for three quarters last week, but they do not figure to have a letdown in their MAC opener, so look for them to build off of that effort and upset the Central Michigan Chippewas here.

                    In fact, the Chippewas also had a powerhouse opponent last week in Georgia, but unlike Ohio, Central Michigan was not competitive in a 56-17 rout. The Chippewas are more or less a one-dimensional passing team, so when quarterback Dan LeFevour struggles like he did last week, it makes this offense easier to stop.

                    Now Ohio has struggled a bit to stop the run, but that may not matter here as running is not a strong suit for CMU, and as Ohio State discovered, the Ohio pass defense is just fine. In fact, Ohio allowed just 272 total yards vs. the Buckeyes, which compares extremely favorably with the bloated 552 yards the Chippewas allowed to Georgia.

                    We feel that we are getting the better defense here catching more than a field goal at home, which seems like a favorable situation.

                    Free Pick: Ohio +3½ (-110)
                    Comment
                    • Willie Bee
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 02-14-06
                      • 15726

                      #11
                      Oregon Ducks and Purdue Boilermakers Over 60½

                      Game Time: 09/13/2008 03:30 PM -
                      By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

                      With two capable offenses on the field, including Oregon's top-ranked unit, expect a scoring bonanza when the Ducks travel to meet the Purdue Boilermakers on Saturday.

                      Expect plenty of points when the Oregon Ducks and Purdue Boilermakers square off in West Lafayette.

                      Oregon has the nation's top offense through two home games racking up yard after yard and score after score in a pair of blowout wins. Now the Ducks see if life on the road will be as kind as 16th-ranked Oregon is making its first visit to West Lafayette in nearly 29 years and will take on a Purdue team looking to snap a 14-game losing streak against ranked opponents.

                      Oregon has racked up an average of 592.0 yards in its first two wins, scoring 110 points in the process. The Ducks will try to beat a Big Ten team on the road for the second straight year after last season's 38-7 thrashing of Michigan. Purdue is 12-34 against ranked opponents under coach Joe Tiller, losing 14 straight.

                      Tillers squad is also capable of putting up points as well. Purdue had the Big Ten's top total offense and passing attack in 2007, and is relying heavily on its passing game again. Senior quarterback Curtis Painter led the league with 29 touchdowns last season, and tossed two last Saturday.

                      Painter's top targets are senior Desmond Tardy and Greg Orton, who combined for 201 yards receiving in the opener. This could very well turn into a track meet.

                      Free Pick: Oregon-Purdue Over 60½ (-105)
                      Comment
                      • Willie Bee
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 02-14-06
                        • 15726

                        #12
                        UConn -10½ vs. Virginia Cavaliers

                        Game Time: 09/13/2008 07:30 PM -
                        By: Lee Kostroski | experts.covers.com

                        Virginia is struggling to score, putting up just 23 in their first two games, and that makes this double digit spread easy to lay on the Connecticut Huskies on their home field.

                        The Connecticut Huskies are the far superior team here and it will show on Saturday at home against the Virginia Cavaliers.

                        UVA is 1-1 on the season getting pasted 52-7 by USC and beating Richmond 16-0. Their offense has had big time trouble simply putting points on the board this year. Their offensive line is inexperienced and their QB situation is really poor right now.

                        The starting QB for the first two games, Peter Lalich, did not make the trip to Hartford. He stayed home to take care of some legal issues. He will be replaced by Marc Verica who has never thrown a pass in a collegiate game. With a semi-experienced Lalich at the helm, this team has averaged just 11.5 PPG their first two games. How will they do with Verica under center vs. a veteran a very solid UConn defense that has allowed just 12 points total in two games this season? Not good is your answer. Taking a young team on the road for the first time with a new QB is not about to be a cure for any offensive woes.

                        The Huskies are 2-0 after a 12-9 win at Temple last week. While that win may not look all that impressive, the fact is the weather was horrible and neither team could get much going on offense because of that. Connecticut dominated much more than the final score indicated out-gaining the Owls 379 to 298. They also held Temple to only 10 first downs and had nearly a 10-minute time of possession edge.

                        While the Huskies struggled to put points up last week in poor weather, they are very balanced with a veteran QB Tyler Lorenzen who knows how to win. He also had a very good RB to lean on as Donald Brown already has 346 yards rushing in two games this year. It won’t take much on to outscore the anemic offense on the other side lines.

                        Virginia struggled last week with Division 1AA Richmond and led just 3-0 at the end of the third quarter. And that game was at home. Now on the road playing into an angry revenge minded team (UVA beat UConn last year 17-16) and we have the makings of a blow out. The Huskies have covered seven of their last eight home games and they pick up an easy win on Saturday.

                        Free Pick: Connecticut -10½ (-110)
                        Comment
                        • Willie Bee
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 02-14-06
                          • 15726

                          #13
                          Vanderbilt Commodores -8 vs. Rice

                          Game Time: 09/13/2008 07:00 PM -
                          By: Larry Ness | experts.covers.com

                          Both Rice and Vanderbilt have surprised pundits getting off to 2-0 starts this season, but it's the Commodores who will move to 3-0 when they host the Owls in Nashville tonight.

                          What's going on here? Both Rice and Vanderbilt have opened 2-0 in the '08 season. Rice ended a 45-year bowl drought in '06 but then HC Todd Graham bolted for Tulsa and the Owls fell to 3-9 in '07. As for Vandy, the 'Dores haven't been to a bowl game since 1982 and entered this year with a streak of 25 consecutive losing seasons.

                          Rice opened the year with a 56-27 home rout of SMU and then, last Saturday at Memphis, scored the game's final 22 points in a 42-35 win. Vandy opened the year with an impressive 34-13 road win at Miami-Ohio and them beat South Carolina 24-17 a week ago Thursday, the Commodores' first upset of a ranked team in Vanderbilt Stadium since September 19, 1992 (a 31-9 win over then-No. 25 Mississippi).

                          Versatile QB Chris Nickson has two TD passes (no INT) plus 183 yards rushing and three more TD on the ground. The defense has been solid, allowing just 15.0 PPG in the two wins.

                          Rice has an explosive offense (49.0 PPG) led by QB Chase Clement, who has completed 61.7 percent for 576 yards with seven TD and two INT. He's also the team's leading rusher with 167 yards (6.0 YPC) and two more TD. The Rice 'D' leaves a lot to be desired though, allowing 31.0 PPG and 430.0 YPG (last year allowed 42.9 PPG / 510.0 YPG). It's not easy for Rice to win a way from home (needed 42 points to do so last Saturday), as in six road games last year, the Owls allowed 43.5 PPG.

                          Vandy HC Bobby Johnson says "the ante has been raised" for his team this year and I'm calling for Vanderbilt to get its first 3-0 start since 1984 with a convincing win. Lay the points.

                          Free Pick: Vanderbilt -8 (-110)
                          Comment
                          • Willie Bee
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 02-14-06
                            • 15726

                            #14
                            Arizona Wildcats -10 on road at New Mexico Lobos

                            Game Time: 09/13/2008 08:00 PM -
                            By: Stephen Nover | experts.covers.com

                            Arizona has superior talent and comes in with revenge after falling to New Mexico in 2007. Back the Wildcats as 10-point road favorites in Albuquerque against the Lobos.

                            Arizona is a growing monster. Maybe the oddsmakers will realize that after this game, because the Wildcats are underpriced here.

                            Look for Arizona to bury New Mexico. The Lobos are breaking in new offensive linemen and wide receivers. Quarterback Donovan Porterie has suffered because of it. He's playing poorly and could possibly be in danger of losing his starting spot. The Lobos scored 13 points in their first seven quarters against TCU and Texas A&M before putting up two late touchdowns when the Aggies went into a prevent defense.

                            New Mexico has covered only two of its past nine games. Arizona has far superior talent on both sides of the ball.

                            Arizona has put up 111 points in dispatching Idaho and Toldeo. The Wildcats have done it with balance, averaging better than 280 yards passing behind quarterback Willie Tuitama and 210 yards rushing. The Wildcats have 10 starters back on offense.

                            The Wildcats aren't going to lack for motivation either after losing as a 9½-point home favorite last season to New Mexico.

                            Free Pick: Arizona -10 (-110)
                            Comment
                            • Willie Bee
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 02-14-06
                              • 15726

                              #15
                              SMU Mustangs +37 to cover on road at Texas Tech Red Raiders

                              Game Time: 09/13/2008 07:00 PM -
                              By: Matt Fargo | experts.covers.com

                              This game should go to Texas Tech, but the spread is simply too much. Take SMU and the points when the Mustangs ride into Lubbock Saturday to face the Red Raiders.

                              This line is inflated for no real reason. Texas Tech may be 2-0 but the wins came against Eastern Washington and Nevada, and the win against the Wolf Pack was very misleading.

                              The Red Raiders won by 16 points but they were outgained 488-421 and they lost the time of possession battle by over 13 minutes. Texas Tech got a questionable call on a touchdown that was instead ruled a fumble and also returned a punt 86 yards for a score.

                              SMU struggled in their opener against Rice in the first game using the new June Jones offense. The Mustangs won last Saturday against Texas St., and even though it was not a good team and an impressive win, it gave them an extra game to get the systems going and, if nothing else, provided some great confidence. SMU put up 431 total yards and though the defense did not play well, in a game like this with a line like this, the offense won’t need much for the cover.

                              Looking at Texas Tech message boards you read talk about how many points their offense is going to score and how much this team is going to win by. I love seeing stuff like that. This offense has the potential to be one of the best around but the points aren’t coming. Prior to Nevada, the Red Raiders came off a crushing win over Eastern Washington as they amassed 639 yards of total offense. However, this game was very much in doubt entering the fourth quarter as the Red Raiders were only up by 11 points.

                              Back to the Mustangs offense. Quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell had quite a game, completing 24-of-37 pass attempts for 370 yards and five touchdowns against Texas St. SMU’s five touchdown passes marked the first time the Mustangs have had that many since that Sam Houston State game in 2006. While they have had two games to get things clicking, the other side of the ball should help them out as well.

                              After two weeks the Red Raiders rank 95th in total defense and while they have stopped teams from the big scoring, they are giving up chunks of yards and a Jones-made offense can take advantage. This game has the makings of a shootout and with this line we are getting, Texas Tech can put up points in the 60’s and the Mustangs can still cover rather comfortably.

                              A win here is unlikely and that is something we normally look at when grabbing the underdog but a dog like this has tremendous value. Play the SMU Mustangs for 1½ units.

                              Free Pick: SMU +37 (-110)
                              Comment
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