Amateur Betting Card

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  • Thorpe
    SBR Rookie
    • 08-25-08
    • 17

    #1
    Amateur Betting Card
    First Post. I just noticed SportsbookReview had a forum.

    Here is my betting card to start the year. I order the college football packages every year and I watch a lot games, but I don't expect to make any money betting this year due to poor money managment skills. I have 100 units (= $1000) to start:

    My main game is Ore St -3 . Ore St doesn't play well early in the year but they haven't played Stanford week 1 before. The key to Ore Sts defense is the secondary where they are strong with 3 out of the 4 d backs returningi, including both corners and Al Afalava at safety. Al has a mean streak that will set the tone for the front 7, who are allowed to run wild. All I hear is Ore St has a whole new front 7, but they do return 19.5 sacks from the D Line. Riley is an experienced coach and has an abundance of talent that he redshirted or JC tansfers to fill the spots on the D Line and LB and Ore St has put up good defensive numbers 9 out of the last 10 years (2005 they gave up a lot of passing yards due to losing 3 All-Pac 1st or 2nd teamers from 2004).

    Ore St's QBs struggled numbers-wise last year, but I am happy that Moevao won the QB job because I think he is more talented and went 4-0 as a starter last year. He is listed at 5'11" 235 and with that low center of gravity he is tough to tackle and I expect him to run more this than last year. I am not expecting anything from Stroughter but he is a dynamic play maker when he is healthy. Darrell Cutchings, James Rodgers and Jacquizz Rodgers play with a chip on their shoulder due to their short size but all they do is produce results. Riley hopes they all stay 4 years. rFr RB Ryan McCants is a nice complement size-wise at 6'1" 236.

    4 of the last 5 years they have been blown out in their Pac 10 opener. The exception was USC who they play hard against. Pritchard is not a good QB. In the USC game he was just throwing the ball up for grabs. I think Stanford winds up in a QB rotation after Pritchard struggles and I don't see any QBs getting a good rythm. This is not a good thing against a team like Ore St that will come after the QB after they shut down the run. You need great timing between the QB, O Line, and WRs to beat Ore St. At WR for Stanford, Richard Sherman put up his numbers last year as the third WR as teams chose to double cover Evan Moore and Mark Bradford. Sherman talied off at the end of last year and Moore and Bradford are gone. Stanford has only run the ball well 1 year in the last 9 (2001 - 195 yards on 4.3 YPC). The Cards O line looks great on paper but they have a ways to improve just to get to average.

    Stanford is a little over-confident and resting on their laurels from last year (beating two main rivals USC and Cal). Ore St has been hearing they are no longer a factor in the Pac 10 even though their record under Riley is as good as anyone's not named Carroll. My biggest worry is if I'm underestimating Harbaugh as a coach. He had a lot of success at San Diego.
  • Thorpe
    SBR Rookie
    • 08-25-08
    • 17

    #2
    I have 25 units on Ore St.

    The next big play is Oregon. They have been pouring money into their program and the results are paying off. Oregon is strong in the secondary and will take advanatge of the Washington passing game. Oregon can control both lines of scrimmage. They ran for 476 last year in this game and a lot of that was due to the O Line having its way. Washingtons D Line is an embarrassment. If Locker is not fully healed from his hamstring issue and he doesn't have 100% mobility, Oregon will roll.

    Oregon -13.5 for 15 units.
    Comment
    • Thorpe
      SBR Rookie
      • 08-25-08
      • 17

      #3
      Southern Cal -19.5 for 4 units. USC could use some good news on the football field and UVA is just the kind of team they want to play. This isn't a top play because it looks too good to be true. Who is going to bet UVA? I hope the line on this game goes to 22.5 before kickoff and USC wins by 20.

      East Carolina +10 for 3 units. I'm a big fan of what Skip Holtz has done and while I see EC covering I don't think they'll win. EC is loaded on the D Line and VA Tech won't put up enough points. I like Rob Kass a little better than Pinkney but if Pinkney does play I think he will do a good job.

      UL Monroe +26.5 for 3 units. ULM is a sleeper team to win the Sun Belt. I don't know if Auburn is the best matchup for them, but 26.5 is a lot of points for Auburn to cover

      BC -9.5 for 3 units - my friend talked me into this one.

      Wyoming -10 for 3 units - fading Ohio here

      Memphis +8 for 3 units - more offensive firepower on Memphis IMO

      UTEP/UB over 62.5 for 4 units - UB defense is a lot worse than last year, with top sack man gone to the NFL and the LBs decimated. The offense looks good with most of the pieces back and Turner Gill more time to build the playbook. UTEP has a horrible defense and can score 45 points in a loss.
      Last edited by Thorpe; 08-25-08, 12:02 PM. Reason: forgot to include units for 3 games
      Comment
      • gm2022girl
        SBR Sharp
        • 08-17-08
        • 447

        #4
        Originally posted by Thorpe

        BC -9.5 for 3 units - my friend talked me into this one.
        First mistake in betting any sport
        Comment
        • Thorpe
          SBR Rookie
          • 08-25-08
          • 17

          #5
          Originally posted by gm2022girl
          First mistake in betting any sport
          I think of it as insurance against him saying I told you so.
          Comment
          • MartinBlank
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 07-20-08
            • 8382

            #6
            I am staying away from Oregon/Washington.

            My concern with Oregon is they lost their last three regular season games without Dixon last year. They lost to Arizona, got shut out by UCLA, and then closed it out with a OSU loss.

            They did play exceptionally well in the bowl win over South Florida, but I just don't have a lot of confidence in them without Dixon, or I should say, until what they get out of the QB position.

            Jake Locker is banged up for Washington, and as he goes so does Washington. But I just don't know if that is enough for Oregon to get this cover.

            Best of luck though!
            Comment
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