I'm going to post my picks again this year. Anybody who followed last year knows the basics of my "system". But for the anybody who doesn't know.....I track the outcomes of the games based on the opening point spread. I pick the games blindly, the teams mean nothing, only the spread matters. You can probably find some old posts from last year to get a better idea. If you don't like trends you probably won't like The Chart.
I've put a few new wrinkles into The Chart this year. There is no minimum % this year. All the games still start off with an expected win %, but now I do a lot of cross referencing to determine whether or not it is a play.
Basically all the data I had fit into 4 different percentage brackets. (50-53%) (54-58%) (59-62%) (63%+). In those brackets the Win percentage was fairly similar. So now each of those 4 brackets has their own chart. There will be some plays of mine that are fading the original number I had because thats what the trends were doing.
It's still the same basic strategy as last year, but this year The Chart will move with the trends a lot more instead of staying put no matter what happened.
To keep things simple I'm only going to post the picks, not every game. There will be no % listed next to the picks. I will post the opening line with my pick since that is the basis for everything. If the line moves, it moves.
I've gone back through previous years and applied the same formula and it looks good, but who knows what will happen. Last year I started off great and then hit the wall. I still ended up in the plus column for the year (barely though).
We'll see how it goes this year, I'm hoping to hit in the 58% range.
I've put a few new wrinkles into The Chart this year. There is no minimum % this year. All the games still start off with an expected win %, but now I do a lot of cross referencing to determine whether or not it is a play.
Basically all the data I had fit into 4 different percentage brackets. (50-53%) (54-58%) (59-62%) (63%+). In those brackets the Win percentage was fairly similar. So now each of those 4 brackets has their own chart. There will be some plays of mine that are fading the original number I had because thats what the trends were doing.
It's still the same basic strategy as last year, but this year The Chart will move with the trends a lot more instead of staying put no matter what happened.
To keep things simple I'm only going to post the picks, not every game. There will be no % listed next to the picks. I will post the opening line with my pick since that is the basis for everything. If the line moves, it moves.
I've gone back through previous years and applied the same formula and it looks good, but who knows what will happen. Last year I started off great and then hit the wall. I still ended up in the plus column for the year (barely though).
We'll see how it goes this year, I'm hoping to hit in the 58% range.