Sagarin System 2010-11 Bowl Games

[jakenoss]

this system won me quite a bit of money last year so i figured i'd post it this year. not gonna follow every game though. The first number posted is the combined rating of the elo-chess and points predictor, and the second number is the strength of schedule.

55) BYU 72.15 (52) vs. 112) UTEP 60.55 (127)

56) N. Illinois 72.11 (121) vs. 63) Fresno State 71.18 (83)

85) Ohio 66.42 (124) vs. 113) Troy 60.53 (148)

68) Louisville 70.19 (81) vs. 66) Southern Miss 70.56 (98)

8) Boise State 89.29 (70) vs. 21) Utah 81.70 (66)

45) San Diego St 75.31 (91) vs. 47) Navy 74.69 (80)

32) Hawaii 78.88 (88) vs. 52) Tulsa 73.21 (97)

80) Toledo 67.32 (99) vs. 116) FIU 59.99 (131)

38) Air Force 76.32 (67) vs. 69) Georgia Tech (64)

30) West Virginia 79.10 (74) vs. 29) NC State (45)

9) Missouri 88.32 (26) vs. 27) Iowa (51)

40) Maryland 75.80 (60) vs. 77) East Carolina 67.71 (62)

35) Baylor 77.49 (33) vs. 44) Illinois 75.34 (46)

12) Oklahoma St 86.53 (39) vs. 23) Arizona 76.22 (11)

74) SMU 68.65 (72) vs. 89) Army 65.35 (103)

37) Kansas State 76.40 (44) vs. 70) Syracuse 70.03 (85)

43) UNC 75.64 (34) vs. 51) Tennessee 73.25 (43)

14) Nebraska 86.42 (30) vs. 42) Washington 75.68 (2)

46) Clemson 75.06 (37) vs. 65) South Florida 70.66 (78)

33) Miami-Fl 78.29 (31) vs. 28) Notre Dame 79.22 (24)

36) Georgia 77.18 (35) vs. 49) UCF 74.47 (107)

17) South Carolina 85.04 (13) vs. 19) Florida State 82.55 (25)

39) Texas Tech 75.81 (27) vs. 72) Northwestern 69.25 (73)

26) Florida 80.05 (15) vs. 50) Penn State 73.94 (53)

5) Alabama 90.51 (17) vs. 20) Michigan State 82.42 (65)

25) Mississippi State 80.50 (28) vs. 48) Michigan 74.61 (40)

4) TCU 91.42 (82) vs. 15) Wisconsin 86.04 (71)

6) Oklahoma 90.36 (8) vs. 54) UConn 72.45 (79)

3) Stanford 94.21 (10) vs. 16) Virginia Tech 85.58 (59)

11) Ohio State 87.91 (68) vs. 7) Arkansas 89.74 (19)

87) Miami-OH 65.92 (109) vs. 151) Middle Tenn State 53.78 (165)

10) LSU 88.05 (23) vs. 13) Texas A&M 86.53 (12)

41) Pittsburgh 75.73 (48) vs. 67) Kentucky 70.46 (61)

18) Nevada 83.98 (86) vs. 57) Boston College 72.03 (55)

2) Auburn 94.49 (16) vs. 1) Oregon 96.40 (20)

Once again, the number before each team is the ranking. The number after each team is the Sagarin Rating, and the number in () is the strength of schedule. No official plays yet, although there are a few games i'm leaning on. Will highly appreciate input, any feedback. Thanks

[kiknit]

Hey Jake - Ive been traking the Sagarin numbers/system every week of this season just for historical purposes. Im assuming youre going to apply the standard filters: Fade teams ATS whose Strength of Schedule is less than 60 unless that team is playing a team who has a lower Strength of Schedule - assuming at least one of the two teams are in the top 60? Basically take every team who has a Strength of Schedule better than 60 and who is playing against a team who has a Strength of Scheudle less than 60?

55) BYU 72.15 (52) vs. 112) UTEP 60.55 (127)
30) West Virginia 79.10 (74) vs. 29) NC State (45)
40) Maryland 75.80 (60) vs. 77) East Carolina 67.71 (62) - right on the bubble
37) Kansas State 76.40 (44) vs. 70) Syracuse 70.03 (85)
46) Clemson 75.06 (37) vs. 65) South Florida 70.66 (78)
36) Georgia 77.18 (35) vs. 49) UCF 74.47 (107)
39) Texas Tech 75.81 (27) vs. 72) Northwestern 69.25 (73)
5) Alabama 90.51 (17) vs. 20) Michigan State 82.42 (65)
6) Oklahoma 90.36 (8) vs. 54) UConn 72.45 (79)
3) Stanford 94.21 (10) vs. 16) Virginia Tech 85.58 (59) - right on the bubble
11) Ohio State 87.91 (68) vs. 7) Arkansas 89.74 (19)
41) Pittsburgh 75.73 (48) vs. 67) Kentucky 70.46 (61)
18) Nevada 83.98 (86) vs. 57) Boston College 72.03 (55)

I havent had a chance to run the rest of the numbers - including the capping and vs the spread, but the teams in BOLD fit the model last time I checked.

[kiknit]

PS...with the plays from last year, I believe this system went 4-8

[jakenoss]

actually, i didn't follow the traditional method, i'll let you know my exact fading system when the first set of games rolls around. just trying to find a way to score some cash. then again who isn't? haha

[M.W.]

Good luck.

[dngf]

thanks for posting this, good information

[jakenoss]

ok guys, for the 3 games on saturday i have heavy leans on UTEP and Ohio, but i have a slight lean on Fresno. Haven't pulled the trigger on anything yet, but when I do i'll let you guys know

[Serbone]

Hey Jake - Ive been traking the Sagarin numbers/system every week of this season just for historical purposes. Im assuming youre going to apply the standard filters: Fade teams ATS whose Strength of Schedule is less than 60 unless that team is playing a team who has a lower Strength of Schedule - assuming at least one of the two teams are in the top 60? Basically take every team who has a Strength of Schedule better than 60 and who is playing against a team who has a Strength of Scheudle less than 60?

55) BYU 72.15 (52) vs. 112) UTEP 60.55 (127)
30) West Virginia 79.10 (74) vs. 29) NC State (45)
40) Maryland 75.80 (60) vs. 77) East Carolina 67.71 (62) - right on the bubble
37) Kansas State 76.40 (44) vs. 70) Syracuse 70.03 (85)
46) Clemson 75.06 (37) vs. 65) South Florida 70.66 (78)
36) Georgia 77.18 (35) vs. 49) UCF 74.47 (107)
39) Texas Tech 75.81 (27) vs. 72) Northwestern 69.25 (73)
5) Alabama 90.51 (17) vs. 20) Michigan State 82.42 (65)
6) Oklahoma 90.36 (8) vs. 54) UConn 72.45 (79)
3) Stanford 94.21 (10) vs. 16) Virginia Tech 85.58 (59) - right on the bubble
11) Ohio State 87.91 (68) vs. 7) Arkansas 89.74 (19)
41) Pittsburgh 75.73 (48) vs. 67) Kentucky 70.46 (61)
18) Nevada 83.98 (86) vs. 57) Boston College 72.03 (55)

I havent had a chance to run the rest of the numbers - including the capping and vs the spread, but the teams in BOLD fit the model last time I checked.

Be careful.
This system worked a few yrs ago but last yr was not so hot.
The thing is, you have to wonder how accurate Saggarin's rating's are since this is the second yr in a row that the goddam PAC 10 is # 1.
No way.
Throws the whole thing off.
Last yr the PAC 10 teams got pounded in the bowls.

This yrs Saggarin ratings by conference:

1 PAC-10 (A) = 80.22 80.64 ( 1) 10 80.42 ( 1)
2 SOUTHEASTERN (A) = 80.10 79.52 ( 2) 12 79.79 ( 2)
3 BIG 12 (A) = 79.06 78.82 ( 3) 12 78.95 ( 3)
4 BIG TEN (A) = 74.35 74.44 ( 4) 11 74.42 ( 4)
5 ATLANTIC COAST (A) = 74.04 73.75 ( 5) 12 73.79 ( 5)
6 I-A INDEPENDENTS (A) = 73.62 73.09 ( 6) 3 73.18 ( 6)
7 BIG EAST (A) = 70.87 70.96 ( 7) 8 70.96 ( 7)
8 MOUNTAIN WEST (A) = 69.19 69.42 ( 8) 9 69.20 ( 8)

[spongerat]

why are your numbers slightly wrong? rankings and schedule ranks are all a number or two different

[DblDeuce]

Great info. Thank you.

[Augustus]

why are your numbers slightly wrong? rankings and schedule ranks are all a number or two different

They updated the numbers after the Army/Navy game.

[spongerat]

ahh right right, sorry

[illarytot]

If I remember, Sagarin last year failed, 2 years ago very good

[jakenoss]

Plays for Saturday

UTEP MINERS +12 (5x)
BYU/UTEP OVER 50 (5X)
FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS +1 (5X)


anyone know what's going on with boo jackson?!

[THE PROFIT]

If I remember, Sagarin last year failed, 2 years ago very good

this is different than the SOS system, it hit about 40% LY, absolutely bombed, I did a write up on it in PT, was supposed to be put over here too, but mods are asleep

[cubswin]

Under in the Fresno game, snow , rain , and wind.

[jakenoss]

@cubswin, i was leaning on that too. 58 is high number for two teams that like to run the ball

[kiknit]

If I remember, Sagarin last year failed, 2 years ago very good

Yeah, it was pretty ugly last year...so far 1-0 with a cover from BYU. Next team/game that fits the model is NC State (+2.5) over West Virginia [12/28] and Maryland (-7.5) over East Carolina [12/29].

I havent looked at either of the games yet - just an FYI as to whats coming up.

[Kubilak]

Any ratings system that has the Pac 10 ahead of the SEC isn't a system worth following. That's horrible.

Who actually thinks Oregon's schedule is comparable to Auburn's in the least?

[masontnk]

Yeah IDK if the PAC 10 is rated above the SEC

[kiknit]

Next one that fits the model is NC State vs West Virginia and I just happen to agree with it:

West Virginia making their 9th straight bowl appearnce and 13 in last 15 years. Its not quite fair to look at WVs record since the 2005 season (60-16) because most of that comes behind Pat White. From 2005-2008, WV finished 4th (272 rypg), 2nd (303 rypg, 3rd (297 rypg), & 15th (201 rypg) in the nation and averaged 32, 39 and 40PPG. They needed high totals (37, 35 and 35) in 3 of their last 4 gamesto maintain the 27PPG average this season. QB Smith (66%, 23/6, 2,567 PYs), & RB Devine (886 yds) can combine to light it up, but the scoreboard just doesnt reflect it. Their "D" which ranks 2nd, 3rd, 10th, 2nd in scoring, rushing, passing, & total keeps them in games.

NC State, behind QB Wilson - combined 3,682 rush/pass yds (26TD/14INT) was a few plays away from an undefeated season. Worst team loss this season was by 11 (41-30) to Va Tech...but dont forget NC State had the lead (30-28) with less than 2min left. Also had a 32-18 first down edge over Maryland in that loss. Lost in Overtime to East Carolina and by 1pt against Clemson. PS, NC State has the nations 12th best rushing D. They were also the dog 5 times this season and covered all but once against Va Tech.

Small upset here: NC State 31, West Virginia 27

[Axis]

I know WV hasn't played anyone substantially good, but the 3 teams somewhat close to the same as NC State (Maryland, Pitts, UCONN) they beat 2 of them...badly, and had a horrible game against UCONN...where as NC State didn't exactly fair to well against the middle of the pack ACC teams...And WV only lost 1 of the games it was favored in all year...NC state managed to win 2 game they were projected to lose...

Game is to close to call...though I think most things point to WV...those are normally traps.

G/L on the game...I picked NC State in my bowl pool, but no $$ on this one.

[kiknit]

Game is to close to call...though I think most things point to WV...those are normally traps.

G/L on the game...I picked NC State in my bowl pool, but no $$ on this one.

Thats why I toss my $0.02 out here...hadnt thought of it that way. Thanks for the info! I might just make a small play on it and save myself an ulcer.

[Axis]

Haha yea...I mean, everyone has their opinions and takes...that's why it's gambling! If I were to actually put $ on it, I'd put it on WV, but when I can't decided on bowl games...I find generally, the UD finds a way to take it...it's a very tempting game.

[shopbar picks]

good info here guys. Thanx . My gut tells me nc state wins here outright. Big east has been disappointing all year.

[jakenoss]

I go to Rutgers, and I was at the West Virginia game this year, and I can tell you that WVU is a good team, they play solid defense, and their offense can score in quick doses. I think their Defense will be the reason they win this game though, i'll lay the points

[jakenoss]

system's 3-0 on the year. with kansas state as the next play. let's try and keep it up

[kiknit]

Just thought Id update this since no one else has yet. The system is 7-3 with 3 games left to be played - including one tonight. The SOS difference between Ohio State(68) and Arkansas(19) is tied for the largest difference with Stanford(10) and Va Tech(59) and we all know how that worked out for Va Tech:

55) BYU 72.15 (52) vs. 112) UTEP 60.55 (127) - WINNER
30) West Virginia 79.10 (74) vs. 29) NC State (45) - WINNER
40) Maryland 75.80 (60) vs. 77) East Carolina 67.71 (62) - right on the bubble - WINNER
37) Kansas State 76.40 (44) vs. 70) Syracuse 70.03 (85) - LOSER
46) Clemson 75.06 (37) vs. 65) South Florida 70.66 (78) - LOSER
36) Georgia 77.18 (35) vs. 49) UCF 74.47 (107) - LOSER
39) Texas Tech 75.81 (27) vs. 72) Northwestern 69.25 (73) - WINNER
5) Alabama 90.51 (17) vs. 20) Michigan State 82.42 (65) - WINNER
6) Oklahoma 90.36 (8) vs. 54) UConn 72.45 (79) - WINNER
3) Stanford 94.21 (10) vs. 16) Virginia Tech 85.58 (59) - right on the bubble - WINNER
11) Ohio State 87.91 (68) vs. 7) Arkansas 89.74 (19) - TBD
41) Pittsburgh 75.73 (48) vs. 67) Kentucky 70.46 (61) - TBD
18) Nevada 83.98 (86) vs. 57) Boston College 72.03 (55) - TBD