marshall 1-4 on the season

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  • jadenandashton
    SBR High Roller
    • 09-21-10
    • 171

    #1
    marshall 1-4 on the season
    I posted pretty much all say yesturday and just logged in a couple of minutes ago and I am shocked again this afternoon. All you have to do is a little research on this game, (not much) and you will see how lopsided this game should be. Vegas is counting on people to take Marshall that is the sucker bet here and the reason fot the low spread. UCF is 3-2 but look at there loses and there wins against inferior teams.
    wins:
    south dakota by 31
    buffalo by 14
    UAB by 35

    loses:
    Nc state by 7; I think everyone would agree that NC state is a very good team maybe even too 25 by the end of the year
    Kansas state by 4 on the road; not a great team but still very good especially at home.

    Now to Marshall. They have one win by one point to Ohio. Yes thats right to Ohio by one point.

    loses
    Bowling green by 14
    WVU by 3
    OSU by 38
    Souther Miss by 25

    The most important stat is total defense and and ruch defense where they rank 96 and 86th in the country. I also like the fact that UCF ranks 32 in the country in rushing. On the defensive side of the ball is where this game will be one by UCF. I think Marshall will be starting there third string QB which spells doom for them. UCF has a great defense which ranks 9th in the country. I will take those odds any day of the week.
    This is why they play the games though. Remember with the line that if this would have opened at 12 or 13 how many people would have looked at and just taken UCF in a blowout. The only thing the 5-7 point spread does is make people think that Marshall actually has a chance in this game and anything short of a miracle says that they do not. Good luck to all. My normal play is about 300 a game this will be a 1500 dollar game for me. UCF -6.5
  • kevinslack1016
    SBR High Roller
    • 09-17-10
    • 162

    #2
    Agree 100% with everything you said. Avoiding the sucker bet as well. bol
    Comment
    • yahoonino
      SBR MVP
      • 08-10-07
      • 2651

      #3
      very well put,,,,nice write up
      Comment
      • iQon
        SBR MVP
        • 04-08-10
        • 1483

        #4
        No real feel for the game, but I agree in general. Marshall's 3 point loss to WVU is deceptive. Marshall had the benefit of turnovers contributing to their total, otherwise they were dominated the entire game.

        Not a fan of UCF covering 5-6 on the road, but they have been the better team all year.
        Comment
        • LBDT168
          SBR Sharp
          • 10-05-10
          • 251

          #5
          i don't agree. looking at the numbers and percentages, with the line at 6, 76% of ats bets are on UCF. so you are suggesting that if the line opened at 12 or 13, that there would be more than 76% on UCF? that doesn't make sense. at 12 or 13, i would assume that a lot more people would see more value in the home dog, whereas the low spread, at 6, is the reason that the vast majority of bets are on UCF.
          Comment
          • tbond10
            SBR MVP
            • 11-02-08
            • 1014

            #6
            UCF 1 unit (which is large for me on a weeknight game between 2 teams such as these)... I think this is going to be a case of rushing offense vs rushing defense.... but what do I know?

            Best of Luck!

            Comment
            • masr
              SBR MVP
              • 10-20-07
              • 4773

              #7
              1 and 5 now
              UCF covers!
              Comment
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